** WTUS81 KAKQ 151201 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 800 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON... POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.5 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 7.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN NOON AND THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 10 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25 ** WTNT31 KNHC 151202 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMHX 151229 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -151600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 830 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA POUNDS THE OUTER BANKS... ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH TO SURF CITY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ON THE NEUSE RIVER...WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING. IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET BEFORE RECEDING LATE THIS MORNING. CORE SOUND FLOODING WILL BE AROUND 6 FEET. ON THE OUTER BANKS...A 5 TO 7 FOOT STORM SURGE IS OCCURRING FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL BATTER THE COAST. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING 20 TO 25 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND NOON. $$ DB ** WTNT31 KNHC 151248 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ...AND A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT51 KNHC 151351 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. DURING THE PAST HOUR...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 65 MPH WITH A GUST TO 95 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM HATTERAS VILLAGE NORTH CAROLINA...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 151401 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON... POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.5 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 7.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN NOON AND THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 10 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25/32 ** WTCA41 TJSJ 151420 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA SE DEBILITA LENTAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE CONTINUA BORDEANDO LAS ORILLAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 9 AM EDT...1300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.7 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL SUR SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO ENTRE NORESTE Y ESTE NORESTE CONTINUE EN EL DIA DE HOY. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE JUSTO LEJOS DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS DE SU CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO LAS COSTAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 AM EDT...34.8 NORTE...75.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTORA: VAZQUEZ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 151426 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 THE CENTER OF JOVA IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. JOVA REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH NO DEEP BANDING AND A SMALL BUT EXPANDING REA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATERS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING JOVA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. JOVA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND HENCE A BASIC WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED. AFTER 72 HOURS...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SLOW AND BEND THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE EARLIER TREND OF A SLOWER MOTION...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND FURTHER SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY LATER ON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.8N 130.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 151426 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 151427 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.3W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.3W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 151427 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE. OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT LIMITED ELSEWHERE. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 151429 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME WEAK ONCE AGAIN...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. RECENTLY...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 65 MPH WITH A GUST TO 95 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM HATTERAS VILLAGE NORTH CAROLINA...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 151430 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z THU SEP 15 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 200SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.7N 74.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.2N 70.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.2N 63.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 151430 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.7N 74.3W 39 X X X 39 BOSTON MA X X 7 5 12 37.1N 73.2W 11 9 1 1 22 PORTLAND ME X X 3 7 10 39.2N 70.9W X 4 10 2 16 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 7 9 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 1 1 5 EASTPORT ME X X 1 8 9 WILMINGTON NC 5 4 1 1 11 ST JOHN NB X X X 9 9 MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X X 8 8 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 YARMOUTH NS X X 1 9 10 NORFOLK VA 12 6 1 1 20 HALIFAX NS X X X 8 8 OCEAN CITY MD 5 11 2 1 19 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 6 6 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 1 8 6 1 16 SYDNEY NS X X X 6 6 NEW YORK CITY NY X 4 9 1 14 EDDY POINT NS X X X 7 7 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 11 2 14 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 5 5 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 9 3 13 BURGEO NFLD X X X 4 4 NANTUCKET MA X X 9 5 14 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 3 3 HYANNIS MA X X 8 5 13 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 151433 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-053-055-095-133-AMZ150-152-154-156-158-ANZ633-658-152100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-152100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-152100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-152100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 151447 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE AL ESTE NORESTE JUSTO LEJOS DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.7 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL SUR SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE.YY COMO A 55 MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS TIMONELES SE HAN TORNADO DEBILES UNA VEZ MAS...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. AUNQUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA PERMANEZCA LEJOS DE LA COSTA Y SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS DE SU CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE...SE RECIBIO UN REPORTE NO OFICIAL DE VIETNO SOSTENIDO DE 65 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 95 MPH DESDE HATTERAS VILLAGE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...Y UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 66 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH FUE REPORTADO EN CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 986 MB...29.12 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO LAS COSTAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...34.8 NORTE...75.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...986 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT...SEGUIDA POR UN ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTORA: VAZQUEZ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 151450 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON... POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.5 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 7.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN NOON AND THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY NOON EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25/32 ** WTNT41 KNHC 151456 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 OPHELIA HAS BECOME RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR IMAGERY... AND WIND DATA FROM BOTH COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO INCREASED 4 MB...NOW 986 MB...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/03. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND HAS PERHAPS EVEN STALLED AS THE CYCLONE IS...ONCE AGAIN... CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM BERMUDA TO NOVA SCOTIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD... WHILE THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO OHIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL THAN MERIDIONAL AND THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LITTLE MORE OF A WESTWARD SHIFT AFTER 48 HOURS...AND SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND UKMET BRING OPHELIA OVER OR VERY CLOSE THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP OPHELIA WELL TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY SLOWER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...NOT MUCH ELSE IS FAVORABLE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS INTRUDED FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF OPHELIA. COOL SHELF WATER JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS IS ALSO HELPING TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE WEST SIDE AND WEAKEN THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER ...OPHELIA IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GULFSTREAM TO TAP INTO THE WARMER 82-83F WATER THAT EXISTS THERE...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 48 HOURS WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 34.8N 75.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 35.7N 74.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 39.2N 70.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 44.2N 63.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1200Z 47.0N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z 51.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 151504 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -151900- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA POUNDS THE OUTER BANKS... ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH TO SURF CITY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 7 TO 9 FEET. THE SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. CORE SOUND FLOODING WILL BE AROUND 6 FEET. ON THE OUTER BANKS...WIND FLOW IS PARALLEL TO LOWER HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3 PM. $$ DB ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/151535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 129.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 129.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.6N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.4N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.2N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.2N 137.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.0N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/151530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 120.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 120.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.3N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.6N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.9N 123.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.2N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.8N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS81 KAKQ 151603 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1203 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON... POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME WEAK ONCE AGAIN...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.06 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.0 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...5.5 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 7.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEETTHROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 2 PM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25 ** WTIN20 DEMS 151730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 15-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC (.) MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HOURS IST OF TODAY NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 68.0 DEG. EAST. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST - NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) ** WTNT80 EGRR 151746 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 129.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.7N 129.5W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.7N 131.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.6N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.1N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 137.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.5N 138.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 138.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.5N 139.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.7N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 141.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.4N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 13.9N 144.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 13.8N 146.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 120.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 12.8N 120.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.0N 121.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.5N 123.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 124.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.9N 125.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.4N 126.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.5N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.4N 128.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.9N 128.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 13.7N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 13.8N 128.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 16.2N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.0N 106.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 12.0N 106.9W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.1N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.1N 112.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.1N 113.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.9N 114.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.8N 115.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.4N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.2N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.0N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 24.5N 178.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 24.5N 178.0W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 25.2N 179.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 24.8N 179.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 25.3N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 26.1N 177.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 26.3N 175.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 26.3N 173.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 26.5N 169.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 75.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.7N 75.8W STRONG 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.7N 75.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 35.5N 74.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 37.1N 73.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 40.3N 70.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 44.7N 66.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.7N 45.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 10.7N 45.8W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 11.3N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.7N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.8N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.0N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.4N 54.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.0N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.3N 55.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.4N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.3N 57.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.2N 57.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.1N 58.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151746 ** WTNT31 KNHC 151749 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA STALLS JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A GUST TO 81 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...34.7 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$