** WTIN20 DEMS 150620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEG. NORTH/ LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG. EAST AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION AAA INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEA OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LEVEL PASSES THROUGH ALONG 23.5 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION. ** WTNT31 KNHC 150651 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA EYEWALL OVER THE OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...34.6 N... 76.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 150655 AAA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 200 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON...YORK ...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT APPROXIMATELY 2 AM EDT...OR 0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODERATE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THURSDAY 712 AM...4.0 TO 4.5 FEET...THURSDAY 748 PM...5.0 TO 6.0 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH... THURSDAY 553 AM...5.0 TO 5.5 FEET...THURSDAY 624 PM...6.5 TO 7.5 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THURSDAY 524 AM...5.0 TO 5.5 FEET...THURSDAY 556 PM...7.0 TO 8.0 FEET. IN NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE GREATEST SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF BERTIE COUNTY...WITH A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET EXPECTED ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD TO INLAND CURRITUCK COUNTY ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND. THE TIME OF THESE SURGES IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NANSEMOND RIVER WHERE A 2 TO 4 FOOT SURGE IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 5 AM...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER 6 AM EDT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET AFTER SUNRISE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 4 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ BROWN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150703 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 36B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... PARED DEL OJO DE OPHELIA SOBRE LAS ISLAS EXTERIORES DE LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE SURF CITY HASTA CAPE FEAR. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 3 AM EDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.3 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 65 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...MAYORMENTE LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON Y SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 3 AM EDT...34.6 NORTE...76.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTUS82 KMHX 150707 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -151000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 310 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES TO POUND THE CAROLINA COAST... ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ON THE NEUSE RIVER...THE WATER LEVEL IN CLUB FOOT CREEK WAS REPORTED TO BE ABOUT 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WATER IS CONTINUING TO RISE . IT COULD RISE TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN ADAMS CREEK, HANCOCK CREEK, AND SLOCUM CREEK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEUSE RIVER ABOVE SLOCUM CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING TO A HEIGHT OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE SUNRISE. THE SURGE IN ORIENTAL WILL BE 9 TO 10 FEET BEFORE SUNRISE. IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WATER WILL RECEDE IN THE NEUSE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. CORE SOUND FLOODING WILL BE AROUND 6 FEET. WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECEDE IN CORE SOUND. ON THE PAMLICO RIVER...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE PAMLICO RIVER...AND AROUND 5 FEET IN BELHAVEN. THE WATER SHOULD BE NEAR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL AND WILL BEGIN RECEDING EARLY THIS MORNING. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE. ON THE OUTER BANKS...A 5 TO 7 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. THE FLOODING WILL BE WORST AROUND HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL BATTER THE COAST. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 5 TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EYEWALL APPROACHES. SEAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY...ARE LIKELY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES THIS MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 AM. $$ TK ** WTIN20 DEMS 150700 *** :CORRECTED: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 DEG. NORTH/ LONGITUDE 68.0 DEG. EAST AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION AAA INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEA OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LEVEL PASSES THROUGH ALONG 23.5 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION. ENDS: ** WTNT51 KNHC 150750 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 4 AM EDT...0800Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 150756 AAB *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON...YORK ...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND IN BERTIE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE OUTER BANKS...WHERE A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD TO INLAND CURRITUCK COUNTY...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...WHERE A 1 TO 3 FOOT SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WITH A 2 TO 4 FOOT SURGE. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THURSDAY 712 AM...4.0 TO 4.5 FEET... THURSDAY 748 PM...5.0 TO 6.0 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THURSDAY 553 AM...5.0 TO 5.5 FEET... THURSDAY 624 PM...6.5 TO 7.5 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THURSDAY 524 AM...5.0 TO 5.5 FEET... THURSDAY 556 PM...7.0 TO 8.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNRISE. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN 8 AM THIS MORNING AND THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET AFTER SUNRISE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 6 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ BROWN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 150842 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 150842 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JOVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0230Z WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 93 KT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 65 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS IN PEAKING JOVA AT 65 KT AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER WITH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL WEAKEN JOVA TO 50 KT BY 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH INDICATES DEEP-LAYER RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS MODEL REMAINS AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IS FOR A SLOWER MOTION IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS A BIT SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.7N 129.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 150844 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...LASHING THE OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 5 AM...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.7 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 150845 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z THU SEP 15 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 5 AM...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 76.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 76.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.7N 74.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 47.2N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 50.5N 40.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 76.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 150845 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 75 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 982 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. THE SHEAR AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING SO...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. OPHELIA SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL WEAK SO NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH AND A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD PROBABLY FORCE OPHELIA TEMPORARILY ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUPPORTS THE LEFTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK. THIS NEW TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND THEN NOVA SCOTIA BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 35.0N 75.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 37.0N 73.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 39.0N 71.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0600Z 47.2N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0600Z 50.5N 40.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 150845 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.7N 74.7W 37 X X X 37 BOSTON MA X X 6 5 11 37.0N 73.5W 11 8 2 X 21 PORTLAND ME X X 3 7 10 39.0N 71.5W X 4 10 2 16 BAR HARBOR ME X X 1 8 9 MYRTLE BEACH SC 1 3 1 X 5 EASTPORT ME X X X 9 9 WILMINGTON NC 10 2 1 X 13 ST JOHN NB X X X 8 8 MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X X 7 7 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 YARMOUTH NS X X X 9 9 NORFOLK VA 15 5 1 X 21 HALIFAX NS X X X 7 7 OCEAN CITY MD 4 12 2 1 19 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 9 6 1 16 SYDNEY NS X X X 5 5 NEW YORK CITY NY X 3 9 2 14 EDDY POINT NS X X X 6 6 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 9 4 14 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 4 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X 8 5 13 BURGEO NFLD X X X 3 3 NANTUCKET MA X X 7 6 13 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 HYANNIS MA X X 7 5 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150853 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 119.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 119.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 119.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150854 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 37 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE...AZOTANDO LAS ISLAS EXTERIORES DE LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ESTA AREA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.1 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 50 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 5 AM EDT...34.7 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EDT Y A LAS 9 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTECIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150900 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE STRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A CYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 150901 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-101-1500 HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 982 MB OR 28.00 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO SURF CITY NC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BUT...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE AREA BEACHES MAY BE DANGEROUS AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE DOWNED POWER LINES...DOWNED TREES...AND DEBRIS IN MANY AREAS. A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS USUALLY OCCUR ONCE THE STORM HAS PASSED. ELECTROCUTION BY DOWNED POWER LINES...CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM GENERATOR EXHAUST...AND FIRES STARTED BY UNATTENDED CANDLES ARE THE MOST COMMON DANGERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA AND STORM HIGHLIGHTS VISIT THE WILMINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 150908 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-053-055-095-133-AMZ150-152-154-156-158-ANZ633-658-151500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-151500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC129-141-AMZ250-151500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-151500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-151500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KILM 150912 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-101-151500 HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 982 MB OR 28.00 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO SURF CITY NC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BUT...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE AREA BEACHES MAY BE DANGEROUS AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE DOWNED POWER LINES...DOWNED TREES...AND DEBRIS IN MANY AREAS. A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS USUALLY OCCUR ONCE THE STORM HAS PASSED. ELECTROCUTION BY DOWNED POWER LINES...CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM GENERATOR EXHAUST...AND FIRES STARTED BY UNATTENDED CANDLES ARE THE MOST COMMON DANGERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA AND STORM HIGHLIGHTS VISIT THE WILMINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 150938 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -151300- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 540 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA POUNDS THE OUTER BANKS... ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ON THE NEUSE RIVER...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO RECEDE. WATER LEVELS IN CRAVEN COUNTY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET BETWEEN SLOCUM CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE AT NEW BERN SHOULD BE AROUND 6 FEET. THE SURGE IN ORIENTAL WILL BE AROUND 8 FEET. IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WATER WILL RECEDE IN THE NEUSE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. CORE SOUND FLOODING WILL BE AROUND 6 FEET. ON THE PAMLICO RIVER...THE SURGE IS NOW RECEDING. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...THE WATER IS NEAR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL AND WILL RECEDE AFTER SUNRISE. ON THE OUTER BANKS...A 5 TO 7 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL BATTER THE COAST. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE 3 TO 4 FEET. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EYEWALL MOVES OVER THE AREA. SEAS WERE RUNNING 20 TO 25 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL RECEIVE A TOTAL OF UP TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 AM. $$ TK ** WTNT51 KNHC 150948 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 150953 AAC *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 550 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON... POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE INDEPENDENT CITY OF SUFFOLK IS NO LONGER UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS MORNING AT 712 AM...3.5 TO 4.0 FEET... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.5 FEET... VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 7.0 FEET... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 8 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ BROWN ** WTPH20 RPMM 150900 *** WEATHER ADVISORY NO.03 FOR:ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA ISSUED AT 4:30PM TODAY, 15 SEPTEMBER 2005 AT 2:00PM TODAY, THE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA IN THE VICINITY OF SIBUYAN SEA OR AT 50KMS NORTH OF ROMBLON ( 13.0N 122.2E) IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AT 19KPH. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY TRIGGER LANDSLIDES AND FLASHFLOODS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS.RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES. THE NEXT UPDATE ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLIER, IF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/150930ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 119.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 119.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.5N 120.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.9N 121.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.3N 123.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.7N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/150935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 128.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 128.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.7N 130.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.6N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.6N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.6N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.5N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 151052 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 151059 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 37 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE...AZOTANDO LAS ISLAS EXTERIORES DE LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ESTA AREA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.1 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 50 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 5 AM EDT...34.7 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EDT Y A LAS 9 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTECIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTCA41 TJSJ 151102 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA SIN PRISA EN ALEJARSE DE LAS ISLAS EXTERIORES DE LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 AM EDT...1100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.9 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 45 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ENCONTRO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 981 MB...28.97 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 7 AM EDT...34.8 NORTE...75.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...981 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTECIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTNT51 KNHC 151145 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER STEWART $$