** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 150047 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACH CAPE LOOKOUT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANDS TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...LIKELY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF 75 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 92 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 150057 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 857 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. THE FOLLOWING NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING... HERTFORD...GATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM EDT...OR 0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANDS TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...LIKELY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF 75 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 92 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NANSEMOND RIVER IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. A SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SHORE OF INLAND CURRITUCK COUNTY...OR ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY MIDNIGHT EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 13 ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150110 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 35B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN ALCANZAN A CAPE LOOKOUT... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE LITTLE RIVER INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 9 PM EDT...0100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.8 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA PASE SOBRE O MUY CERCA DE CAPE LOOKOUT DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...Y LA PARED NORTE DEL OJO CONTINUARA PASANDO SOBRE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE LA MAYOR PARTE DE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...PROBABLEMENTE LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE ESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN LEVE AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LA NOCHE. CAPE LOOKOUT RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS PROMEDIADOS A 10 MINUTOS DE 75 MPH...CON UNA RAFAGA DE 92 MPH. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE MEDIDA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM EDT...34.2 NORTE...76.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION FIGUEROA ** WTUS82 KILM 150121 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-150400 HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 920 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 9 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. STRONG WINDS AND RAIN HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH BUT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. THOUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER THE LONG BAY WATERS...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS THE EARLIER STRONG WINDS HAVE LEFT DOWNED POWER LINES...DOWNED TREES... AND DEBRIS IN MANY AREAS. A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS USUALLY OCCUR ONCE THE STORM HAS PASSED. ELECTROCUTION BY DOWNED POWER LINES...CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM GENERATOR EXHAUST...AND FIRES STARTED BY UNATTENDED CANDLES ARE THE MOST COMMON DANGERS. FOR MORE STORM INFORMATION AND ITS LOCAL IMPACTS VISIT THE WILMINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...RAINFALL... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF PENDER COUNTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ ** WTNT51 KNHC 150148 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 AT 10 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 150243 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 150243 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. IN ADDITION DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 60-72 HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND INDICATES A PROLONGED WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL... AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR AND IS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 80-85 KT...THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE DESPITE A FORECAST TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHIPS AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HR BEFORE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER COOLER WATERS BRINGS ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.7N 128.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150244 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED NO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE 11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT 310/9. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 125W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL. MODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE FORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE NEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S POSITION AND INTENSITY. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150245 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 119.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 119.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 119.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 150246 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z THU SEP 15 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS DISCONTINUED. AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 150247 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO POUND THE CAROLINA COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS DISCONTINUED. AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 150248 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.3N 74.9W 37 X X X 37 HYANNIS MA X X 5 6 11 36.3N 73.6W 12 6 2 1 21 BOSTON MA X X 4 6 10 38.0N 71.5W X 5 8 3 16 PORTLAND ME X X 1 7 8 CHARLESTON SC X 1 1 X 2 BAR HARBOR ME X X 1 7 8 MYRTLE BEACH SC 2 4 1 1 8 EASTPORT ME X X X 7 7 WILMINGTON NC 99 X X X 99 ST JOHN NB X X X 7 7 MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X X 6 6 CAPE HATTERAS NC 49 X X X 49 YARMOUTH NS X X X 8 8 NORFOLK VA 12 5 2 X 19 HALIFAX NS X X X 7 7 OCEAN CITY MD 2 10 3 1 16 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 5 7 2 14 SYDNEY NS X X X 5 5 NEW YORK CITY NY X 2 7 3 12 EDDY POINT NS X X X 5 5 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 8 4 12 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 4 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X 6 5 11 BURGEO NFLD X X X 3 3 NANTUCKET MA X X 5 6 11 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 150254 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-053-055-095-133-AMZ150-152-154-156-158-ANZ633-658-150900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ NCC019-AMZ252-150900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-150900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC129-141-AMZ250-150900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050915T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-150900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-150900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT41 KNHC 150257 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 34.3N 76.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150309 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 36 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...FUE DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN AL SUR DE CAPE FEAR. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA CAPE FEAR FUE DEGRADADO A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.5 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 85 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...MAYORMENTE LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON Y SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...34.3 NORTE...76.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM EDT Y 3 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA ** WTNT51 KNHC 150400 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 150408 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -150700- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 12 MIDNIGHT EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...NEAR RECORD FLOODING ALONG BOGUE SOUND... ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA WILL PASS OVER THE OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SOUNDSIDE FLOODING IN BOGUE SOUND IS STILL EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE A LITTLE. FLOODING IN SALTER PATH APPROACHED LEVELS DURING HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954. THE SURGE WAS AROUND 7 FEET NEAR SALTER PATH. WATER IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE IN BOGUE SOUND. ON THE NEUSE RIVER...WATER IS BEGINNING TO RISE. THE WATER LEVEL IN CLUB FOOT CREEK WAS REPORTED TO BE 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN ADAMS CREEK, HANCOCK CREEK, AND SLOCUM CREEK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEUSE RIVER ABOVE SLOCUM CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT TO A HEIGHT OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE SUNRISE. THE SURGE IN ORIENTAL WILL BE 9 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WATER WILL RECEDE IN THE NEUSE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. CORE SOUND FLOODING WILL BE AROUND 6 FEET. WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECEDE IN CORE SOUND. ON THE PAMLICO RIVER...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE PAMLICO RIVER...AND AROUND 5 FEET IN BELHAVEN. THE WATER SHOULD BE NEAR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL NOW AND WILL BEGIN RECEDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 7 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE FLOODING WILL BE WORST AROUND HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL BATTER THE COAST. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 5 TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EYEWALL APPROACHES. SEAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3 AM. $$ TK ** WTUS81 KAKQ 150408 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1200 EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON...YORK ...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. THE FOLLOWING NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING... HERTFORD...GATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 12 AM EDT...OR 0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THURSDAY 712 AM...5.5 FEET...THURSDAY 748 PM...6.0 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH... THURSDAY 553 AM...6.7 FEET...THURSDAY 624 PM...7.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THURSDAY 524 AM...7.5 FEET....THURSDAY 556 PM...8.3 FEET. IN NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE GREATEST SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF BERTIE COUNTY...WITH A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD TO INLAND CURRITUCK COUNTY ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND. THE TIME OF THESE SURGES IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NANSEMOND RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 5 FOOT SURGE IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...HAMPTON...PORTSMOUTH...AND POQUOSON A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER 3 AM EDT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BETWEEN 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING AND THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 3 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ BROWN ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/150335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 013 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 127.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 127.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.6N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.6N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.7N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/150330ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 118.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 118.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.5N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.5N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 150450 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA RELENTLESSLY LASHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND PASS A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS DURING THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...PRIMARILY LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. REPORTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA INDICATE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN SALTER PATH WAS NEAR 7 FEET. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...34.4 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150506 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 36A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA AZOTANDO IMPLACABLEMENTE A LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE SURF CITY HASTA CAPE FEAR. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.4 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 75 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...MAYORMENTE LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON Y SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 981 MB...28.97 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM EDT...34.4 NORTE...76.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...981 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 3 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTCA41 TJSJ 150507 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 36A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA AZOTANDO IMPLACABLEMENTE A LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE SURF CITY HASTA CAPE FEAR. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.4 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 75 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A PESAR DE QUE SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA Y PASE A UNA DISTANCIA MUY CORTA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERA SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE ESTE MISMO PERIODO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...MAYORMENTE LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON Y SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 981 MB...28.97 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM EDT...34.4 NORTE...76.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...981 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 3 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 150531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 119.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2005 12.9N 119.0W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.6N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.8N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 14.0N 123.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 14.4N 124.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.5N 126.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.5N 127.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.9N 127.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 126.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2005 13.6N 126.3W MODERATE 12UTC 15.09.2005 12.6N 129.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.0N 131.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.4N 133.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 136.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 138.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 139.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 140.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.7N 141.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.4N 141.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.3N 143.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.9N 144.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.5N 145.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2005 12.8N 104.0W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2005 12.3N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.3N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 10.9N 109.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 11.7N 110.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.4N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.5N 116.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.4N 118.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.8N 119.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.2N 121.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.1N 124.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 18.0N 125.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 23.7N 178.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 23.7N 178.1W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 23.9N 179.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 24.3N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 24.4N 177.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 24.7N 175.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 24.9N 173.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 25.4N 170.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 76.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.5N 76.9W INTENSE 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.7N 75.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.8N 75.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 36.0N 74.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 37.7N 74.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 40.6N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 13.0N 49.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.0N 49.4W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2005 14.4N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.7N 52.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.0N 54.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.5N 55.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.3N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.2N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 19.2N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 20.2N 58.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.7N 58.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150531 ** WTNT51 KNHC 150551 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FORECASTER AVILA $$