** WTUS82 KMHX 141823 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -142200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 230 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. THE EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 2 PM WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE SEAWALL IN NEW RIVER MARINA. ONSLOW COUNTY REPORTED SOME ROADS FLOODED NEAR THE COAST. THE PAMLICO RIVER WAS ABOUT 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IN CLUB FOOT CREEK...WATER LEVELS WERE ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WATER LEVEL IN BEAUFORT WAS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE BANKS...THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET TODAY. ON THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUBFOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 65 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 FEET TO 20 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT. ON LAND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WERE REPORTED IN MOREHEAD CITY...BOGUE SOUND AND WILLISTON. A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS MEASURED ATOP THE EMERALD ISLE BRIDGE AND A GUST TO 54 MPH WAS OBSERVED ON NORTH TOPSAIL. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WERE OCCURRING UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TODAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 PM. $$ DB ** WTCA41 TJSJ 141849 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFCTO DESDE LA ENSENADA LITTLE RIVER AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL OJO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.4 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 70 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE NORESTE A 7 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAS RAPIDA ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTE TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA TOQUE TIERRA O PASE JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL JUEVES. SIN EMBARGO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PROBABLEMENTE SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. INFORMACION DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LOS RADARES DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOTENIDOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESD ECERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT. DURANTE LA HORA PASADA...UNA ESTACION DE NOAA EN WRIGHTVILLE BEACH CAROLINA DEL NORTE REPORTO VIENTO PROMEDIO EN 6 MINUTOS DE 69 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 77 MPH...MIENTRAS QUE LA BOYA DE NOAA 41013 LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE LA PARED DEL OJO REPORTO VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 59 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 78 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES MAXIMAS COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...33.9 NORTE...77.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE-NORESTE A 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 141856 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-152000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 300 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. THE FOLLOWING NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING... HERTFORD...GATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER... FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 600 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 44 ** WTUS82 KILM 141942 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-142300- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 342 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...WESTERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BATTER CAPE FEAR... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE EYE WALL OF MAXIMUM WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 65 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 79 MPH...OR HURRICANE FORCE...AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WILL AFFECT FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS ON THE PENDER COUNTY COAST INTO THIS EVENING. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER FLOODING...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CONTINUES IN PARTS OF BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. REPORTS INDICATE THAT IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THIS FLOODING MAY POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...AND 35 MILES EAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PARALLEL THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...INCLUDING HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PENDER...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG PENDER COUNTY ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WHILE WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER COUNTY ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 5 PM...WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS IN PENDER COUNTY...CAUSING MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WATER LEVELS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY...CAUSING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH WHERE MINOR TO MODERATE SOUND SIDE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. ALONG THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION HAS RESULTED IN TIDES NOW RUNNING BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS BY 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. THOUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LONG BAY WATERS...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACH EROSION IMPACTS SHOULD LESSEN ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. ...RAINFALL... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. FARTHER WEST...1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN BLADEN...COLUMBUS...AND HORRY COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM. $$ JAQ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 142030 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS TO -75C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9. NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF...ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS SYSTEM EXISTS. THE ECMWF CALLS FOR A ERRATIC WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC91. SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS BETTER KNOWN. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.5N 118.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 142030 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z WED SEP 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 297 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 142031 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z WED SEP 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 142031 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION FOUND IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WINDS...BUT HOW GOOD THESE ARE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HR... TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION NOT SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL... AND GFDN RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES A WESTWARD MOTION ALONG 12N. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO. THE GFDL IS ALONE IN TAKING THE SYSTEM UP TO A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 142034 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS RAKING THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT... AND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 142034 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.3N 75.4W 35 1 X X 36 NANTUCKET MA X X 3 7 10 36.0N 74.1W 12 5 2 1 20 HYANNIS MA X X 2 8 10 37.5N 72.2W X 4 9 2 15 BOSTON MA X X 2 7 9 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 PORTLAND ME X X 1 6 7 CHARLESTON SC 1 1 1 X 3 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 7 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC 9 2 1 X 12 EASTPORT ME X X X 7 7 WILMINGTON NC 99 X X X 99 ST JOHN NB X X X 6 6 MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X X 5 5 CAPE HATTERAS NC 40 X X X 40 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7 NORFOLK VA 14 4 2 X 20 HALIFAX NS X X X 6 6 OCEAN CITY MD 2 8 5 1 16 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 4 7 2 13 SYDNEY NS X X X 3 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X 1 7 3 11 EDDY POINT NS X X X 4 4 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 5 5 10 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 2 2 PROVIDENCE RI X X 4 6 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 142034 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z WED SEP 14 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.8N 76.4W...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 74.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.3N 65.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 77.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 142038 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-053-055-095-129-133-141-AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-252- ANZ633-658-150300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-150300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ SCC043-051-AMZ254-256-150300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-150300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-150300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT41 KNHC 142100 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE OPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE INTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND SPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY AREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS LARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES OPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS. THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS ...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.1N 77.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.8N 76.4W 80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC 24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 74.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 37.5N 72.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 41.3N 65.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1800Z 49.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 142118 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-150115- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 520 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS RAKING THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WILL AFFECT FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS ON THE PENDER COUNTY COAST INTO THIS EVENING. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER FLOODING...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CONTINUES IN PARTS OF BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. REPORTS INDICATE THAT IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THIS FLOODING MAY POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REPORTED WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PARALLEL THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PENDER...BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER THROUGH 6 PM. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG PENDER COUNTY ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WHILE WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER COUNTY ARE AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALONG THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION HAS RESULTED IN TIDES NOW RUNNING BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS BY 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. THOUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER THE LONG BAY WATERS...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACH EROSION IMPACTS SHOULD LESSEN ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. ...RAINFALL... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 9 PM. $$ MAC ** WTCA41 TJSJ 142133 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 35 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... ...PARED NORTE DEL OJO CON FUERTES VIENTOS AFECTANDO LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...FUERON DESCONTINUADOS TODOS LOS AVISOS DESDE EL SUR DE LITTLE RIVER INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE LITTLE RIVER INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.2 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL ESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 50 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA TOQUE TIERRA EL JUEVES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE CERCA DE CAPE LOOKOUT. SIN EMBARGO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DEL SURESTE DEL CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. INFORMACION DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y LOS RADARES DOPPLER EN TIEERA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN LEVE AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES MAXIMAS COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...34.1 NORTE...77.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM EDT Y A LAS 9 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 142144 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -150200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 545 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 5 PM WATER WAS OVER ROUTE 24 NEAR SWANSBORO. WATER WAS ALSO UP TO THE LEVEL OF THE BRIDGE NEAR BROAD CREEK IN CARTERET COUNTY...ALSO ON ROUTE 24. THE PAMLICO RIVER GAGE NEAR WASHINGTON HAS RISEN 2 FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS AT ITS HIGHEST POINT CURRENTLY ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES...SOME 5 TO 6 FEET. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE BANKS...THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ON THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUBFOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 65 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 FEET TO 20 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT. ON LAND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WERE BEING REPORTED IN MOREHEAD CITY...BOGUE SOUND...WILLISTON AND NEW BERN. A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS MEASURED ATOP THE EMERALD ISLE BRIDGE AND A GUST TO 50 MPH WAS OBSERVED ON NORTH TOPSAIL. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TODAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 PM. $$ DB ** WTUS81 KAKQ 142145 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-160000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 550 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...STRONG WINDS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA RAKING THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. THE FOLLOWING NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING... HERTFORD...GATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT... AND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NANSEMOND RIVER IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 900 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 44 ** WTNT51 KNHC 142155 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 AT 6 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. DURING THE PAST HOUR A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECORDED AT CAPE LOOKOUT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E WARNING NR 001 REF/A/MY/140951Z SEP 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 297 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.0N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.4N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140951Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 141000 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 142249 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BATTER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANDS TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 142325 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 35A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA PARED DEL OJO DE OPHELIA CONTINUA AFECTANDO LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE LITTLE RIVER INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM EDT...2300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.9 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA PASE SOBRE O MUY CERCA DE CAPE LOOKOUT DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...Y LA PARED NORTE DEL OJO CONTINUARA PASANDO SOBRE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE LA MAYOR PARTE DE MANANA JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...LOCALIZADOS FUERA DE LA COSTA EN LA PARTE ESTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO...ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN LEVE AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LA NOCHE. CAPE LOOKOUT RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 76 MPH. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES MAXIMAS COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM EDT...34.2 NORTE...76.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 126.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 126.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 128.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.3N 133.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/141935ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 126.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 126.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 128.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.3N 133.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT51 KNHC 142353 *** TCEAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 AT 8 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. DURING THE PAST HOUR A WIND GUST TO 86 MPH WAS RECORDED AT CAPE LOOKOUT. THAT STATION ALSO REPORTED A 10-MIN AVERAGE WIND OF 67 MPH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$