** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 141204 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 33A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA INTENSIFICANDOSE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE NORTE-NORESTE HACIA LA COSTA DE NORTH CAROLINA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER SUR HASTA EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 110 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AHORA AL NORTE NORESTE A 6 MPH Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA QUE HOY CONTINUE CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAS RAPIDA ESTA NOCHE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA TOQUE TIERRA O PASE JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL JUEVES. SIN EMBARGO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PROBABLEMENTE SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. INFORMACION DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y LOS RADARES DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...UNA BOYA DE NOAA 41013 LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 54 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 69 MPH ANTES DE QUE EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE OPHELIA PASARA SOBRE LA BOYA. EN ADICION...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN ESPARCIDO TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE NORTH CAROLINA DESDE CAPE FEAR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...33.4 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE-NORESTE A 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTUS82 KCHS 141237 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-SCZ044-045-050-141600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 840 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. ...WIND IMPACTS... OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT TIDE OR STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODERATE OR GREATER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE 5 TO 9 FT THIS MORNING SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND 20 NM THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 12 NOON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ MTE ** WTUS82 KILM 141258 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-141700- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 858 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS THE NORTHWESTERN EYE WALL BRUSHES CAPE FEAR... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE EYE WALL OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE WILMINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS...78 MPH... HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB OR 28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 25 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWESTERN EYE WALL WILL BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PENDER...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY UNTIL 12:15 PM. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND ARE AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COULD RISE TO 6 TO 7 FEET TODAY AS OPHELIA PASSES TO THE EAST. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM AND MODERATE...POSSIBLY MAJOR...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ALONG THE BEACHES OF HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WIND IS BLOWING OFF THE BEACH AND THE TIDES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE FALLING. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ARE ALSO IMPACTING BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND WHICH WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO PREVENT FURTHER EROSION. ...RAINFALL... COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES IN HORRY COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON. $$ JAQ/TM ** WTUS81 KAKQ 141258 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 141700- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 857 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OUTER CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY NOON. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25 ** WTUS82 KILM 141301 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-141700- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TIDE IMPACTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 858 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS THE NORTHWESTERN EYE WALL BRUSHES CAPE FEAR... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE EYE WALL OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE WILMINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS...78 MPH... HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB OR 28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 25 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWESTERN EYE WALL WILL BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PENDER...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY UNTIL 12:15 PM. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND ARE AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COULD RISE TO 6 TO 7 FEET TODAY AS OPHELIA PASSES TO THE EAST. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 5 PM AND MODERATE...POSSIBLY MAJOR...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ALONG THE BEACHES OF HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WIND IS BLOWING OFF THE BEACH AND THE TIDES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE FALLING. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ARE ALSO IMPACTING BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND WHICH WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO PREVENT FURTHER EROSION. ...RAINFALL... COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES IN HORRY COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON. $$ JAQ/TM ** WTUS82 KMHX 141309 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -141600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 910 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM OREGON INLET NORTH INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE...P AMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OREGON INLET NORTH...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. THE EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY NOW. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 9 AM WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE SEAWALL IN SWANSBORO. WATER WAS OVER SOME OF THE PRIVATE DOCKS ON HADNOT CREEK. THE WATER LEVEL AT BEAUFORT WAS ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. IN CLUBFOOT CREEK...WATER LEVELS WERE JUST BARELY ABOVE NORMAL STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE BANKS...THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET TODAY. ON THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUB FOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BY NOON. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY NOON. SEAS WERE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET TO 15 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...BUT WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 FEET AROUND MID DAY. SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WERE OCCURRING UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND NOON. $$ TK ** WTPZ25 KNHC 141425 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z WED SEP 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 141426 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z WED SEP 14 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W...NEAR OUTER BANKS MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 141427 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER BOTH TAFB AND AFWA LOWERED THE T-NUMBER AT 12Z. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE BUOYANCY TERM IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A STABLE AIR MASS MAY IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF WEST...260/11. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAYS 4-5...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 140W. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3... WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. THIS IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL/UKMET/ NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.9N 126.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 141427 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.1N 75.9W 34 X 1 X 35 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 5 5 10 35.8N 74.5W 13 5 2 X 20 PROVIDENCE RI X X 4 5 9 36.8N 72.5W 1 7 5 3 16 NANTUCKET MA X X 3 7 10 BERMUDA X X X 4 4 HYANNIS MA X X 3 6 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 1 2 BOSTON MA X X 2 6 8 SAVANNAH GA X 1 2 1 4 PORTLAND ME X X 1 6 7 CHARLESTON SC 2 4 2 1 9 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 6 6 MYRTLE BEACH SC 99 X X X 99 EASTPORT ME X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC 99 X X X 99 ST JOHN NB X X X 5 5 MOREHEAD CITY NC 62 X X X 62 MONCTON NB X X X 4 4 CAPE HATTERAS NC 27 1 X X 28 YARMOUTH NS X X X 6 6 NORFOLK VA 13 4 2 X 19 HALIFAX NS X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD 2 8 3 2 15 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 4 6 2 12 SYDNEY NS X X X 2 2 NEW YORK CITY NY X 1 6 4 11 EDDY POINT NS X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 141439 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-AMZ152-154-156-158-250-252-142100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ SCC043-051-AMZ254-256-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-142100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-142100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050914T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTNT31 KNHC 141442 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 64 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...33.7 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 141459 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91 THAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT TO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY 36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.7N 77.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W 75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS 36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 141512 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... ...NUEVAS ADVERTENCIAS Y NUEVOS AVISOS EMITIDOS... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE LA ENSENADA LITTLE RIVER AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A LAS 11 AM EDT...ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL MORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. A LAS 11 AM EDT...TODOS LOS AVISOS HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS DESDE SANTEE RIVER HACIA EL SUR. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA DESDE EL SUR DE LA ENSENADA LITTLE RIVER HACIA EL SUR. SIN EMBARGO...PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DE LA ENSENADA LITTLE RIVER AL NORTE DE SANTEE RIVER SUR. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL OJO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 85 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE NORESTE A 7 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAS RAPIDA ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTE TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA TOQUE TIERRA O PASE JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL JUEVES. SIN EMBARGO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PROBABLEMENTE SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. INFORMACION DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LOS RADARES DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. SOUTHPORT CAROLINA DEL NORTE REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 64 MPH. LOS VIENTOS SOTENIDOS DE FURERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENOD A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y CAROLINA DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES MAXIMAS COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 9 A 11 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...33.7 NORTE...77.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE-NORESTE A 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 141538 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-SCZ044-045-050-141700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1135 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACH AND BOATING ACTIVITIES WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS. SEAS AND SURF ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...WIND IMPACTS... OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. WINDS IN CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE NO STORM SURGE IMPACTS. TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SO THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND 20 NM. ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST...SO NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THIS OFFICE ON HURRICANE OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ MTE ** WTNT61 KNHC 141546 *** TCUAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1145 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE OPHELIA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 125.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 125.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.8N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.6N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.3N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.5N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 141603 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -141900- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 12 NOON EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. THE EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 11 AM WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE SEAWALL IN NEW RIVER MARINA. ONSLOW COUNTY REPORTED SOME ROADS FLOODED NEAR THE COAST. THE PAMLICO RIVER WAS ABOUT 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IN CLUB FOOT CREEK...WATER LEVELS WERE ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WATER LEVEL IN BEAUFORT WAS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE BANKS...THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET TODAY. ON THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUBFOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 FEET TO 20 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WERE OCCURRING UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TODAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3 PM. $$ DB ** WTUS81 KAKQ 141609 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-151615- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1208 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED AND WARNINGS ISSUED... ...HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 300 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25 ** WTUS82 KILM 141609 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-141915- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1210 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...WESTERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BATTER CAPE FEAR... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE EYE WALL OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 65 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WILL AFFECT FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS ON THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...AND 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB OR 28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PARALLEL THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...INCLUDING HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PENDER...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND ARE AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 5 PM...WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...CAUSING MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE PENDER COUNTY COAST. HOWEVER...THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR TO MODERATE SOUND SIDE FLOODING. ALONG THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION HAS RESULTED IN TIDES NOW RUNNING BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS BY ABOUT A FOOT. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 25 FT. THOUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LONG BAY WATERS...MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...AND THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACH EROSION IMPACTS SHOULD LESSEN ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. ...RAINFALL... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. FARTHER WEST...2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN BLADEN...COLUMBUS...AND HORRY COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ RAS ** WTUS81 KAKQ 141611 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094>098-151615- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1211 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED AND WARNINGS ISSUED... ...HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. THE FOLLOWING INDEPENDENT CITY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... SUFFOLK. THE FOLLOWING NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING... HERTFORD...GATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM...4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM...5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 300 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 25 ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 125.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 125.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.8N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.6N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.3N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.5N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 125.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 125.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.8N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.6N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.3N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.5N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 141705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC (.) MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 1730 HOURS IST OF TODAY NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG. EAST IN GUJRAT. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN WESTERLY DIRECTION AAA ** WTNT31 KNHC 141745 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA REPORTING STATION AT WRIGHTVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECORDED 6-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 MPH WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 141746 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 125.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2005 13.8N 125.8W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2005 13.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.1N 129.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.6N 133.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.8N 135.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.2N 138.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.2N 139.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 15.0N 141.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.0N 142.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.7N 144.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.5N 145.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 17.7N 146.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 12.5N 112.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.5N 112.6W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.7N 114.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.6N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.3N 119.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 12.2N 121.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.8N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.8N 124.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 127.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.2N 129.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 77.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.6N 77.5W INTENSE 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.7N 76.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 35.4N 75.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 35.3N 74.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 36.2N 74.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 38.0N 73.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 12.2N 46.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 46.5W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 14.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 16.2N 51.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.6N 52.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.9N 54.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.7N 55.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 19.6N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 20.5N 58.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141746 ** WTNT31 KNHC 141751 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CORRECTED INTENSITY FROM 80 TO 85 MPH IN REPEAT SECTION ...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA REPORTING STATION AT WRIGHTVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECORDED 6-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 MPH WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$