** WTCA41 TJSJ 140610 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 32 A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN COMO A 30 MILLAS FUERA DE LA COSTA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE OREGON INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO ALBEMARLE SOUND...Y DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SOUTH SANTEE HASTA EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.9 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 100 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL NORTE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. DEBIDO AL LENTO MOVIMIENTO DEL HURACAN Y A LA EXTENSA COBERTURA DE LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN PODRIAN LLEGAR A LA COSTA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...32.8 NORTE...77.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...LENTAMENTE AL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 140617 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...TO CORRECT LONGITUDE ON THE REPEAT SECTION ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ABOUT 30 MILES OFFSHORE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD...HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND THE RELATIVELY LARGE EXTENT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...32.8 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 140634 AAA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ034-046-140930- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH STRONG RAINBANDS JUST OFFSHORE... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 982 MB OR 29.00 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 25 TO 30 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THEN SPREAD FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN AND COLUMBUS. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THEN SPREAD FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF SEAS OVER 20 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEAS STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK THE TIDES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 430 AM THIS MORNING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 5 TO 6 FEET TODAY AS OPHELIA PASSES TO THE EAST. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...THE SURGE WILL BE 3 TO 4 FEET AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 FEET. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 330 AM. $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 140652 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-SCZ044-045-050-141030- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 252 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA DRIFTING NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL WEAK...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC HURRICANE. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT TIDE OR STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. IF THESE BANDS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST AND THE MCCLELLANVILLE AREA. OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 630 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH ** WTUS81 KAKQ 140714 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 150715- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 314 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM... 4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM... 5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE AROUND THE MOUTHS OF THE CHOWAN...YEOPIM...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK AND LITTLE RIVERS...WHERE A SURGE OF LOCALLY UP TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OUTER CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 6 AM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ NS ** WTIN20 DEMS 140650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-09-2003 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG. EAST AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN WESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA . RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ25 KNHC 140832 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z WED SEP 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 140832 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 T.D. TEN-E IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...WHICH SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR...WITH THE GFDL DELAYING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN IT TURNS TEN-E INTO AN 81 KT HURRICANE...AND SHIPS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 140W. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 265/12. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THUS BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE BEYOND 72 HOURS AND DEVELOP A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600-700 NM NE OF HAWAII. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGESTS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E IS LESSENING AS THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE...FURTHER INCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.1N 125.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 140841 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. A NOAA BUOY JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS TO 69 MPH. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.2 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 140842 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z WED SEP 14 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 77.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 77.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.8N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.7N 76.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 77.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 140842 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 980 MB AND BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. OPHELIA HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRIMARILY A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE ONCE BACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE...MAINLY DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION. NOAA BUOY 41013 JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 985.7 MB AT 08Z. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 33.2N 77.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 33.8N 77.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.7N 76.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 59.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0600Z 48.0N 48.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 140842 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.7N 76.5W 30 1 X X 31 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 1 7 8 35.3N 75.5W 12 6 2 X 20 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 8 8 36.0N 73.5W X 5 7 3 15 NANTUCKET MA X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X X X 4 4 HYANNIS MA X X X 7 7 CHARLESTON SC 5 2 1 X 8 BOSTON MA X X X 7 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC 52 X X X 52 PORTLAND ME X X X 6 6 WILMINGTON NC 58 X X X 58 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 4 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC 33 X X 1 34 EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4 CAPE HATTERAS NC 13 5 2 1 21 ST JOHN NB X X X 3 3 NORFOLK VA 2 9 4 1 16 MONCTON NB X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X 2 8 3 13 YARMOUTH NS X X X 4 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 6 5 11 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 3 6 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 140859 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA AVANZANDO PASO A PASO HACIA LA COSTA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER SUR HASTA EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z... LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER HASTA EDISTO BEACH HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.9 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS AL ESTE NOROESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 70 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA PARECE ESTAR MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE A 5 MPH Y ESTE LENTO MOVIMIENTO SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. UNA BOYA DE NOAA JUSTO AL NORTE DE OPHELIA REPORTO RAFAGAS DE 69 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...33.2 NORTE...77.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE A 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 140914 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ152-154-156-158-250- 252-254-256-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-141500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-141500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTUS82 KILM 140924 AAA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ034-046-141030- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 525 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MOVING NORTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB OR 28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ARE STARTING TO IMPACT THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN AND COLUMBUS. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THEN SPREAD FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF SEAS OVER 20 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK THE TIDES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 430 AM THIS MORNING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 5 TO 6 FEET TODAY AS OPHELIA PASSES TO THE EAST. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...THE SURGE WILL BE 3 TO 4 FEET AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 FEET. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 630 AM. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTUS81 KAKQ 140945 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 150945- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 545 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...TODAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM... 4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...TODAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM... 5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...TODAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GREATEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF BERTIE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF CHOWAN COUNTIES...WHERE 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OUTER CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 9 AM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ NS ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS ** WTUS82 KCHS 140954 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-SCZ044-045-050-141300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 554 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OPHELIA MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 MPH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ERRATIC MOTION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC HURRICANE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT TIDE OR STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODERATE OR GREATER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...AND UP TO 15 FEET BEYOND 20 NM. ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST AND THE MCCLELLANVILLE AREA. OTHERWISE... RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 9 A.M. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 141028 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -141300- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 625 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM OREGON INLET NORTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OREGON INLET NORTH...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE ISLAND. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL VISITORS AND RESIDENTS OF THE HATTERAS ISLAND AREA OF DARE COUNTY. THIS EVACUATION DOES NOT APPLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES IN ONSLOW COUNTY. IN BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING COMMUNITIES ALONG WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS IN THE BELHAVEN...AURORA...WASHINGTON...WASHINGTON PARK...AND PAMLICO BEACH COMMUNITIES. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE THEIR PREPARATIONS COMPLETED TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE BANKS THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET TODAY. ON THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUB FOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY A SURGE OF AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED AT FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF HATTERAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 30 TO 40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVIER RAINBANDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY NOON. SEAS WERE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 10 TO 15 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BY NOON. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES...MAINLY IN THE RAINBANDS OF OPHELIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 AM. $$ TK ** WTUS82 KILM 141041 AAA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ034-046-141200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 630 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MOVING NORTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BLADEN AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COULD RISE TO 5 TO 6 FEET TODAY AS OPHELIA PASSES TO THE EAST. ON A FALLING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...JOHNNY MERCER PIER AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WAS SHOWING TIDE LEVELS AROUND 6 FT AND STILL RISING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK THE TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE FALLING. TIDES ALONG THE BEACHES OF HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES ARE FALLING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB OR 28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 MPH AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ARE STARTING TO IMPACT THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THEN SPREAD FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF SEAS OVER 20 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE AGITATED SEA STATE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES...AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST TODAY...WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 800 AM. $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 141143 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH BEFORE THE LARGE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED OVER THE BUOY. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW SPREAD ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...33.4 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS ** WTUS82 KCHS 140954 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-SCZ044-045-050-141300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 554 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OPHELIA MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 MPH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ERRATIC MOTION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC HURRICANE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT TIDE OR STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODERATE OR GREATER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...AND UP TO 15 FEET BEYOND 20 NM. ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST AND THE MCCLELLANVILLE AREA. OTHERWISE... RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 9 A.M. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH