** WTCA41 TJSJ 131813 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 29A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST MARTES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE-NOROESTE HACIA EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS... ...LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ACERCANDOSE A LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE EN CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECEN EN EFECTO PARA EL NORTE DEL CABO LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND...Y DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SOUTH SANTEE HASTA EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LOS RADARES DOPPLER COSTEROS DE LA NOAA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 125 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA TIENE UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL MIERCOLES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE SERIA POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UNA INTENSIFICACION LENTA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. DURANTE LA HORA PASADA ...LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 41004 LOCALIZADA AL SUR SURESTE DE CAPE FEAR RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 45 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 54 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE FUE DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES ALEJADOS DEL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...32.5 NORTE...78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 131841 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-132230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE GEORGIA WATERS 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE LESS. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE...BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BEACH AREA. DAMAGE TO DOCKS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE NOW RUNNING AROUND A HALF A FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. EVEN THOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE DROPPED SOME DURING THE DAY...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE OPHELIA...STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 630 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ MTE ** WTUS82 KILM 131856 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-132300- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 257 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 98 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 10 TO 20 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE RUSHING TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS BY SUNSET. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ HAWKINS ** WTNT21 KNHC 132030 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z TUE SEP 13 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 132031 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.3N 77.2W 35 X X X 35 OCEAN CITY MD X 2 6 4 12 35.2N 76.1W 13 6 2 X 21 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 4 6 10 35.7N 74.7W 2 9 4 1 16 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 1 7 8 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA 1 1 1 1 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 6 6 CHARLESTON SC 12 2 1 X 15 NANTUCKET MA X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 45 X X X 45 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC 42 X X X 42 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 MOREHEAD CITY NC 23 2 1 X 26 PORTLAND ME X X X 4 4 CAPE HATTERAS NC 8 8 3 1 20 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA 2 9 4 1 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 132034 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z TUE SEP 13 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 A SMALL CDO HAS FORMED AND THERE IS A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10 ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED IS SOMEWHAT FASTER. TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A TENDENCY FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND SLOWING BY DAYS 4-5. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS AND SIMILAR THEREAFTER. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS JUST DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVER 500 N MI TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E...AND IT SHOWS SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SINCE THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 132035 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC095-AMZ154-156-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC055-AMZ152-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTNT31 KNHC 132039 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO VIRGINIA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND OPHELIA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 132058 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE HIGHEST RECON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 76 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN AS HIGH AS 80 KT AT 9900 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT 68-72 KT SURFACE WINDS AND MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THESE HIGHER-LEVEL WIND VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41004...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT. SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DECREASED DURING THE DAY ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME LOCALIZED SMALL PATCHES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS BENEATH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345 DEGREES AT 3-4 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION HAS TIGHTENED UP SOMEWHAT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN LESS WOBBLE ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD...WHILE 18Z SPECIAL UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE CAROLINAS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOT ERODED AS QUICKLY AS THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE OPHELIA MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE LARGE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER OPHELIA CLEARS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL OPHELIA TRANSITIONS INTO A FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 32.6N 78.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND 48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT61 KNHC 132103 *** TCUAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 502 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA ALONG WITH STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH WERE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 75-MPH HURRICANE AS OF 5 PM EDT... OR 2100Z. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 132106 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC095-AMZ154-156-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC055-AMZ152-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-140300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050913T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTNT31 KNHC 132123 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD... AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 530 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 132125 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 630 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 630 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.3N 77.2W 32 X 1 X 33 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 4 6 10 35.2N 76.1W 12 6 2 X 20 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 2 6 8 35.7N 74.7W 2 8 4 2 16 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 6 6 SAVANNAH GA 1 2 1 X 4 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6 CHARLESTON SC 11 2 1 1 15 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 46 X X X 46 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC 40 X X X 40 PORTLAND ME X X X 4 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC 21 2 1 1 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC 8 8 2 1 19 EASTPORT ME X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA 2 8 4 2 16 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X 2 6 4 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 132125 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2130Z TUE SEP 13 2005 AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2130Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 132132 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC055-AMZ152-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2130Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ NCC019-031-095-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ154-156-158-250-252-254- 256-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2130Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTNT41 KNHC 132132 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE OPHELIA TO A HURRICANE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT FOUND STEPPED- FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS OF 63-66 KT NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BENEATH 4000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83 KT. THE AIR FORCE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY A 65-KT HURRICANE...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REACH 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2130Z 32.6N 78.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND 48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 132132 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC055-AMZ152-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2130Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ NCC019-031-095-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ154-156-158-250-252-254- 256-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-HATTERAS-NC 35.22N 75.53W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC053-AMZ150-ANZ633-658-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-140300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T2130Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ NCC029-139-177-187-AMZ130-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-140300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...CHS... ** WTNT41 KNHC 132132 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE OPHELIA TO A HURRICANE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT FOUND STEPPED- FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS OF 63-66 KT NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BENEATH 4000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83 KT. THE AIR FORCE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY A 65-KT HURRICANE...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REACH 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2130Z 32.6N 78.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND 48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 132136 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CASI CON FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE CERCA DE LA COSTA DE LAS CAROLINAS... ...AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA VIRGINIA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN FUE EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE HATTERAS. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE EN CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE CAPE HATTERAS HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SOUTH SANTEE HASTA EDICTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR. ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LOS RADARES DOPPLER COSTEROS DE LA NOAA INDICABAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.1 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 110 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE PARA EL MIERCOLES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE SERIA POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES Y OPHELIA ESTA JUSTO POR DEBAJO DE LA INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN. SE ESPERA UNA INTENSIFICACION LENTA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 41004 LOCALIZADA AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 50 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 65 MPH...MIENTRAS QUE LA BOYA DE NOAA 41013 LOCALIZADA AL SUR-SURESTE DE CAPE FEAR REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 47 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 58 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO PERMANECIO EN 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 8 A 10 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES ALEJADOS DEL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...32.6 NORTE...78.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 132136 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-140145- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 536 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE FLOOD WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MARINE ZONES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM AND FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER OUT 20 NM...HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE NOW RUNNING AROUND 0.75 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDE OR STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...ANY ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 900 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 132137 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2130Z TUE SEP 13 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 64-KT RADII AT ADVISORY TIME AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 13/2130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 13/2130Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 77.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 132138 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -140400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 535 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH... ...OPHELIA UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE HATTERAS NORTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE ISLAND. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL VISITORS AND RESIDENTS OF THE HATTERAS ISLAND AREA OF DARE COUNTY. THIS EVACUATION DOES NOT APPLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES IN ONSLOW COUNTY. IN BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING COMMUNITIES ALONG WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS IN THE BELHAVEN...AURORA...WASHINGTON...WASHINGTON PARK...AND PAMLICO BEACH COMMUNITIES. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD HURRY TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATION THIS EVENING TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 5 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES...BOGUE BANKS...AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS. IN ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES...THE HIGHEST SURGE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OF 5 PM. THE HIGHEST SURGE ON THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE NEAR 5 AM. STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER PAMLICO SOUND AND THE NEUSE RIVER WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUB FOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. STORM SURGE IN THE PAMLICO RIVER WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET. STORM SURGE IN THE PUNGO RIVER AND IN HYDE COUNTY WILL BE AROUND 4 FEET. STORM SURGE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OREGON INLET WILL GET STORM SURGES UP TO 4 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE RAINBANDS FROM OPHELIA MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ CGG ** WTNT71 KNHC 132143 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.3N 77.2W 32 X 1 X 33 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 4 6 10 35.2N 76.1W 12 6 2 X 20 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 2 6 8 35.7N 74.7W 2 8 4 2 16 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 6 6 SAVANNAH GA 1 2 1 X 4 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6 CHARLESTON SC 11 2 1 1 15 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 46 X X X 46 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC 40 X X X 40 PORTLAND ME X X X 4 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC 21 2 1 1 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC 8 8 2 1 19 EASTPORT ME X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA 2 8 4 2 16 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X 2 6 4 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 132152 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-140130- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 550 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA IS BACK UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND OPHELIA IS BACK TO BEING A HURRICANE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 20 TO 30 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK THE TIDES ARE RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AT 6 PM MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN GEORGETOWN NEAR PAWLEYS ISLAND. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 5 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. IN BRUNSWICK ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THE SURGE WILL BE 3 TO 4 FEET AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 FEET. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 430 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETE. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 930 PM. $$ MAC ** WTUS81 KAKQ 132206 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 142215- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 606 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND... FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM...HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6 NORTH...78.1 WEST...MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHEN MAKING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. HEED THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BEACH OR BARRIER ISLAND...OR HAVE TO TRAVEL ACROSS TIDAL FLATS TO SAFETY...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF FLOODING...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE ON HIGH GROUND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND TIDAL MARSHES... AND LIVE IN A STURDY HOME BUILT TO CODES...CONSIDER STAYING IN YOUR HOME. FILL AUTOMOBILE GAS TANKS...AS POWER MAY BE LOST AND GAS STATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DISPENSE FUEL. ASSUME POWER AND WATER MAY BE OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HURRICANE PASSES. FILL CLEAN CONTAINERS WITH WATER. PLAN ON AT LEAST ONE GALLON OF CLEAN WATER PER PERSON PER DAY FOR DRINKING...IN ADDITION TO WATER NECESSARY FOR COOKING...CLEANING...AND FLUSHING TOILETS. STOCK UP ON CANNED FOOD...ESPECIALLY FOOD THAT CAN BE EATEN WITHOUT COOKING OR HEATING. CHECK FOR ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS. HAVE WORKABLE FLASHLIGHTS OR PORTABLE LANTERNS AND A BATTERY-POWERED RADIO. HAVE A SUPPLY OF SPARE BATTERIES. USE BATTERY-POWERED LIGHTS INSTEAD OF CANDLES SINCE FIRE FIGHTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH YOU DURING THE HURRICANE. PREPARE TO BOARD UP WINDOWS IF NECESSARY. STORE OR SECURE LAWN FURNITURE... BARBECUE GRILLS...GARBAGE CANS...AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OUTER CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 9 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.9N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 132214 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-140130- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 550PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA IS BACK UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 530 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND OPHELIA IS BACK TO BEING A HURRICANE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 20 TO 30 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK THE TIDES ARE RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AT 6 PM MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN GEORGETOWN NEAR PAWLEYS ISLAND. STORM SURGE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 5 TO 6 FEET WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. IN BRUNSWICK ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THE SURGE WILL BE 3 TO 4 FEET AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF BALD HEAD ISLAND BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 FEET. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 430 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETE. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 930 PM. $$ MAC ** WTUS81 KAKQ 132226 CCA *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 142230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 626 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND... FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH... BERTIE...CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...POQUOSON... YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH...TROPICAL STORM WATCH...MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE DEFINED AS SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE DEFINED AS SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM...HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6 NORTH...78.1 WEST...MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHEN MAKING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. HEED THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BEACH OR BARRIER ISLAND...OR HAVE TO TRAVEL ACROSS TIDAL FLATS TO SAFETY...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF FLOODING...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE ON HIGH GROUND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND TIDAL MARSHES... AND LIVE IN A STURDY HOME BUILT TO CODES...CONSIDER STAYING IN YOUR HOME. FILL AUTOMOBILE GAS TANKS...AS POWER MAY BE LOST AND GAS STATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DISPENSE FUEL. ASSUME POWER AND WATER MAY BE OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HURRICANE PASSES. FILL CLEAN CONTAINERS WITH WATER. PLAN ON AT LEAST ONE GALLON OF CLEAN WATER PER PERSON PER DAY FOR DRINKING...IN ADDITION TO WATER NECESSARY FOR COOKING...CLEANING...AND FLUSHING TOILETS. STOCK UP ON CANNED FOOD...ESPECIALLY FOOD THAT CAN BE EATEN WITHOUT COOKING OR HEATING. CHECK FOR ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS. HAVE WORKABLE FLASHLIGHTS OR PORTABLE LANTERNS AND A BATTERY-POWERED RADIO. HAVE A SUPPLY OF SPARE BATTERIES. USE BATTERY-POWERED LIGHTS INSTEAD OF CANDLES SINCE FIRE FIGHTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH YOU DURING THE HURRICANE. PREPARE TO BOARD UP WINDOWS IF NECESSARY. STORE OR SECURE LAWN FURNITURE... BARBECUE GRILLS...GARBAGE CANS...AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT...WEDNESDAY 649 PM...5.2 FEET...THURSDAY 712 AM... 4.7 FEET...THURSDAY 5.2 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH...WEDNESDAY 525 PM...6.2 FEET...THURSDAY 553 AM... 5.7 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK...WEDNESDAY 457 PM...6.0 FEET...THURSDAY 524 AM...5.4 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OUTER CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 9 PM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 18/25 ** WTNT31 KNHC 132345 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA INCHES TOWARD THE COASTLINE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND THE RELATIVELY LARGE EXTENT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...32.7 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$