** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KCHS 131258 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-131630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 900 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WOBBLING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE...BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BEACH AREA. DAMAGE TO DOCKS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES. IF THE TIDAL DEPARTURES DO NOT DECREASE...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE OPHELIA...STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. WITH MOSTLY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LESSEN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE EXPECTED RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA...HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 1230 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ MTE/ST ** WTUS82 KILM 131337 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ096-097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-131700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 937 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DILLON AND ROBESON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 13 TO 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETING THEIR PREPARATIONS EARLY TODAY. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. $$ JAQ ** WTUS82 KILM 131348 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ096-097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-131700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NEXT UPDATE TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 937 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DILLON AND ROBESON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 13 TO 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETING THEIR PREPARATIONS EARLY TODAY. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON TODAY. $$ JAQ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 131433 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z TUE SEP 13 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 131433 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND THE INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS PERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 131433 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z TUE SEP 13 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.4N 75.7W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 65.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 47.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 131434 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.9N 77.7W 31 X 1 X 32 NORFOLK VA 1 6 5 3 15 34.9N 76.9W 16 4 1 1 22 OCEAN CITY MD X 1 3 7 11 35.4N 75.7W 4 8 4 2 18 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 7 8 SAVANNAH GA 6 2 X 1 9 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 CHARLESTON SC 28 X X X 28 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC 35 X 1 X 36 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 28 1 X 1 30 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC 16 4 1 1 22 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC 4 8 4 2 18 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 131444 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT WOBBLES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 131445 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-131500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC055-095-AMZ152-154-156-131500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-131500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-131500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT41 KNHC 131502 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 DATA FROM SATELLITES...DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE HIGHEST RECON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN RUNNING 67-70 KT BETWEEN 10000 TO 12000 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE RECON MAX WIND REPORT. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT 59-63 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/03 OVER THE PAST 9-12 HOURS. A SMALL INNER-CORE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE LARGER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SPITS AND SPURTS OF FORWARD MOTION... INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS. HOWEVER...THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND PRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME THE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO MORE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INNER CORE OF OPHELIA IS MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM WHERE SSTS ARE 82F-83F. THE WARMER WATER HAS LIKELY HELPED TO GENERATE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE WIND CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE INNER REGION THAT HAS TO BE MIXED OUT BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F...THERE MAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS...ONLY SLOW INTENSITY CHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE...DURING...AND AFTER LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA CLEARS THE OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 32.3N 78.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 34.9N 76.9W 65 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 15/1200Z 35.4N 75.7W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND 72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.7N 72.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 41.0N 65.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1200Z 47.0N 53.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 131503 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-132100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-132100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC055-095-AMZ152-154-156-132100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-132100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 131516 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE-NOROESTE HACIA EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE EN CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECEN EMITIDA DESDE EL NORTE DEL CABO LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND...Y DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SOUTH SANTEE HASTA EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LOS RADARES DOPPLER COSTEROS DE LA NOAA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 130 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA TIENE UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL MIERCOLES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE SERIA POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO.. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UNA INTENSIFICACION LENTA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 41004 RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 43 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 58 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE FUE DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES ALEJADOS DEL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...32.3 NORTE...78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 131526 *** HLSMHX AMZ135-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104-132200- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1125 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. OPHELIA WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES IN ONSLOW COUNTY. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATION TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES...BOGUE BANKS...AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET. IN ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES THE HIGHEST SURGE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OF 5 PM. THE HIGHEST SURGE ON THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE NEAR 5 AM. STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER PAMLICO SOUND WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUB FOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. STORM SURGE IN THE PAMLICO RIVER WILL BE 5 TO 6 FEET. LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS WHICHARD'S BEACH WILL SEE FLOODING BEGINNING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE IN THE PUNGO RIVER AND IN HYDE COUNTY WILL BE AROUND 4 FEET. STORM SURGE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE RAINBANDS FROM OPHELIA MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ DB ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.2N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.8N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.7N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.7N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.0N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.2N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.8N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.7N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.7N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.0N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.2N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.8N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.7N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.7N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.0N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.// ** WTUS82 KCHS 131543 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-131930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1145 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WOBBLING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AND OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS...WINDS WILL BE LESS. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE...BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BEACH AREA. DAMAGE TO DOCKS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES. IF THE TIDAL DEPARTURES DO NOT DECREASE...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE OPHELIA...STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...ANY ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 330 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ MTE ** WTUS82 KILM 131622 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-141615- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1222 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 10 TO 20 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE RUSHING TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ JAQ ** WTUS82 KILM 131623 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-099>101-SCZ032>034-039-046-132000- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1222 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE BROAD CENTER OF OPHELIA WITHIN 10 TO 20 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND INCLUDE THE COUNTIES OF GEORGETOWN...HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...AND BLADEN. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF LONG BAY...OR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE RUSHING TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ JAQ ** WTNT80 EGRR 131736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 120.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2005 13.9N 120.6W MODERATE 00UTC 14.09.2005 13.8N 122.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.0N 124.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.3N 126.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 14.6N 128.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 14.8N 130.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 15.5N 133.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 16.1N 135.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 16.3N 138.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.9N 140.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 17.0N 143.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.6N 145.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.8N 147.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.1N 90.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2005 9.1N 90.4W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2005 9.8N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 9.6N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 10.7N 97.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 11.0N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.3N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 104.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 15.2N 106.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.1N 108.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.2N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.1N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 78.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2005 31.9N 78.1W INTENSE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.1N 78.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 32.9N 77.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 33.7N 76.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.5N 75.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 35.3N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 36.8N 72.0W MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 00UTC 17.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131736 ** WTNT31 KNHC 131755 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA WOBBLING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE CAROLINA COASTS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...32.5 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$