** WTCA41 TJSJ 130605 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST MARTES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA NUEVAMENTE CASI ESTACIONARIA CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... CONTINIA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE CE CAPE LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.9 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 205 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE ESTA MANANA...Y UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 41004 RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS DE 39 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 7 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EN EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 2 DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...31.9 NORTE...77.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO CASI ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 130612 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 119.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 15.2N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2005 14.5N 121.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 14.4N 123.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.3N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.0N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.7N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.5N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.5N 134.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.5N 136.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.9N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.7N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 15.9N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.9N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.3N 93.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 9.3N 93.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 10.0N 95.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 10.6N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 11.5N 100.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.6N 102.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.8N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.5N 77.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.5N 77.8W INTENSE 12UTC 13.09.2005 32.1N 78.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.6N 78.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.7N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.8N 76.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 35.3N 75.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 35.4N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 EXTRA - TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 10.3N 41.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2005 10.3N 41.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2005 9.8N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 10.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 11.4N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 14.3N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 15.5N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 16.8N 49.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 17.9N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 18.4N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130612 ** WTNT80 EGRR 130615 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 119.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 15.2N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2005 14.5N 121.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 14.4N 123.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.3N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.0N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.7N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.5N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.5N 134.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.5N 136.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.9N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.7N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 15.9N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.9N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.3N 93.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2005 9.3N 93.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2005 10.0N 95.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 10.6N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 11.5N 100.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.6N 102.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.8N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.5N 77.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.5N 77.8W INTENSE 12UTC 13.09.2005 32.1N 78.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.6N 78.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.7N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.8N 76.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 35.3N 75.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 35.4N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 EXTRA - TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 10.3N 41.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2005 10.3N 41.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2005 9.8N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 10.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 11.4N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 14.3N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 15.5N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 16.8N 49.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 17.9N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 18.4N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130615 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 36.2N 124.4E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR ENE 30KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 137.0E 1002HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130500 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130500 UTC 00HR 36.2N 124.2E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 130625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-09-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL HAS CROSSED ORISSA COAST AND NOW LIES CLOSE TO JHARSUGUDA.(42886) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS82 KCHS 130657 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-131030- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...ERRACTIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA HAS MOVED LITTLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. OPHELIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT. STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION BUT WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE...FURTHER BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 630 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER....AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH/JRJ ** WTUS82 KILM 130707 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-033-034-046- 131100- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 305 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COAST WITH OPHELIA NOW STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 137 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB OR 29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH EARLY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL LANDFALL CONTINUES WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIA MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...COLUMBUS...DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER... PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND ROBESON. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ESPECIALLY WITHIN OPHELIAS RAINBANDS. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 10 TO 14 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDES...3 AM AND 3PM TUESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 6 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE HIGH SURF ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL. THESE BANDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS THEY TRACK INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95 WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY NOW. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM. $$ HOEHLER ** WTUS82 KMHX 130712 *** HLSMHX AMZ135-152-154-156-158-NCZ047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104-131000- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1120 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE...PAMLICO...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES IN ONSLOW COUNTY. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETING THEIR PREPARATIONS TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN BEAUFORT COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 11 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ CGG ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130700 UTC 00HR 36.2N 124.5E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR ENE 30KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130800 UTC 00HR 36.3N 124.7E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR ENE 30KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 130831 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z TUE SEP 13 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.1N 78.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.9N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 130832 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.1N 78.2W 67 X X X 67 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 8 5 4 17 34.0N 77.8W 26 2 X X 28 NORFOLK VA X 2 7 6 15 34.9N 76.9W 5 10 3 2 20 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 8 11 SAVANNAH GA 2 3 X 2 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 6 7 CHARLESTON SC 25 X X 1 26 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 40 X X X 40 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 22 2 1 X 25 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 10 2 2 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 130832 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED A BROAD AND POSSIBLY ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES NORTH OF THE CENTER HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 64 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL IS QUITE ERRATIC IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 82 KT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 265/9 BASED ON A 24-HOUR MOTION. DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT IS VERY CLOSE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.2N 119.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 130833 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z TUE SEP 13 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 130834 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 992 MB... 29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...32.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT ...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 130854 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-131500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC055-095-AMZ152-154-156-131500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-131500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-131500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050913T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 130900 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CASI ESTACIONARIA Y ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR LENTAMENTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA DESDE EL NORTE DEL CABO LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AL NORTE DE CABO LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 150 MILLAS AL SUR DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE Y EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UNA INTENSIFICACION LENTA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 41004 RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 39 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.93 PULGADAS. UN BARCO CERCA DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO UNA PRESION DE 992 MILIBARAS 29.29 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 7 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES ALEJADOS DEL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...32.0 NORTE...78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO CASI ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 130900 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED... ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IN THE STORM REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 60-65 KT AND SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT FROM DROPSONDES. THIS WOULD NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT. OPHELIA HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE 00Z...WITH THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND INSIDE THE BROAD CIRCULATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF OPHELIA IS NOW ALONG 81W... MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF 78W...WHICH SHOULD TAKE 12-18 HR...OPEHLIA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TURN OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING OPHELIA TO BE NEAR CAPE FEAR IN 30-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HR...ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. IT IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HR BEFORE THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. WHILE THE CORE OF OPHELIA IS OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 28C...MUCH OF THE WATER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM IS 27C OR COLDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE STORM...AND SURFACE DATA SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND IT SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN VERY QUICKLY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MORE THAN 67 KT WINDS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OPHELIA BACK TO 65 KT. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA...OPHELIA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPCIAL BY 120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 32.0N 78.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 33.1N 78.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 34.9N 76.9W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 16/0600Z 36.5N 74.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 17/0600Z 39.0N 69.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 130941 *** HLSMHX AMZ135-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104-131600- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 540 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. OPHELIA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES IN ONSLOW COUNTY. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATION TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES...BOGUE BANKS...AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET. IN ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES THE HIGHEST SURGE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OF 5 PM. THE HIGHEST SURGE ON THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE NEAR 5 AM. STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER PAMLICO SOUND WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. THE HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUB FOOT CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. STORM SURGE IN THE PAMLICO RIVER WILL BE 5 TO 6 FEET. LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS WHICHARD'S BEACH WILL SEE FLOODING BEGINNING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE IN THE PUNGO RIVER AND IN HYDE COUNTY WILL BE AROUND 4 FEET. STORM SURGE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE RAINBANDS FROM OPHELIA MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND NOON TODAY. $$ TK ** WTUS82 KCHS 130959 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-131330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 559 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...ERRACTIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY. OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT. STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. WITH MOSTLY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LESSEN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE EXPECTED RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA...HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 930 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH/JRJ ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 119.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 119.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.0N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.8N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.6N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 119.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 119.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.0N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.8N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.6N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 119.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 119.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.0N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.8N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.6N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTUS82 KCHS 131027 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-131330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 625 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 CORRECTED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION AND CAUTIONARY INFORMATION FOR LAKE MOULTRIE ...ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY. OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE...BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BEACH AREA. DAMAGE TO DOCKS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT. STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL BE IN THE TO 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. WITH MOSTLY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LESSEN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE EXPECTED RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA...HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 930 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH/JRJ ** WTUS82 KILM 131034 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-032>034-039-046- 131700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR BLADEN AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILLIAMSBURG... MARION AND FLORENCE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992 MB OR 29.29 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...WITH A SLOW NORTHWEST COURSE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER 50 TO 60 MILES EAST OF HORRY COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITHIN 25 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD REFINEMENT WITH OPHELIAS TRACK WILL BRING POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR EASTERN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY DAYLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ROBESON AND DILLON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...DILLON FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND ROBESON. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY TODAY...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS BETWEEN HOLDEN BEACH AND SURF CITY BY DAYLIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE ...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 9 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETING THEIR PREPARATIONS EARLY TODAY. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. $$ HOEHLER ** WTUS82 KILM 131036 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-032>034-039-046- 131700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO HEADLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH NORTHERLY TRACK TO RESUME TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR BLADEN AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILLIAMSBURG... MARION AND FLORENCE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992 MB OR 29.29 INCHES. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...WITH A SLOW NORTHWEST COURSE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER 50 TO 60 MILES EAST OF HORRY COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITHIN 25 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD REFINEMENT WITH OPHELIAS TRACK WILL BRING POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR EASTERN BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY DAYLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR BLADEN... COLUMBUS...MARION...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ROBESON AND DILLON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION...DILLON FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND ROBESON. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY TODAY...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS BETWEEN HOLDEN BEACH AND SURF CITY BY DAYLIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. THE LARGE SURF COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WILL CREATE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY. WATER LEVELS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DURING OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH. DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...AROUND 3 PM TODAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT BREAKERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 4 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE ...MAINLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SEE A NORTHERLY PREVAILING WIND. THIS WILL AID IN KNOCKING DOWN THE SURF...ENOUGH TO KEEP EROSION IN THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. ...RAINFALL... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 9 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETING THEIR PREPARATIONS EARLY TODAY. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. $$ HOEHLER ** WTNT31 KNHC 131153 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA WOBBLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT ...NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$