** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KCHS 130041 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-130445- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 841 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION BUT WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ROTATE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 36N 123E MOVE ENE 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 35.9N 122.7E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H P+24HR 39.6N 135.0E 1000HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 130105 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-033-034-046- 130400- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 905 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING THE COAST AS OPHELIA CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB OR 29.18 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIA MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...COLUMBUS...DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIA CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...3 AM TUESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT PROBABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MAC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130100 UTC 00HR 36.0N 123.0E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR VIETNAM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR VIETNAM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130200 UTC 00HR 36.1N 123.3E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTNT41 KNHC 130248 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 THE STRUCTURE OF OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER. A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER AROUND 2238Z...AND AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 700 MB WINDS OF 72 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF OPHELIA...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND OF 45-60 NMI...AS WELL AS MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES...ARGUES AGAINST ANY RAPID OR LARGE INTENSITY INCREASES...IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE FOR OPHELIA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS. WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH...A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME IS THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION. THE MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND ERRATIC...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 290/3. RAOB DATA AT 0Z SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA IS WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL SHORTLY DIMINISH AND OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE ACCELERATION. THIS COULD RESULT IN A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...WINDS AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH COULD BE A PROLONGED EXPERIENCE IN MANY LOCATIONS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 31.8N 77.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 32.4N 78.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 33.7N 77.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 34.6N 77.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 36.0N 75.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 42.0N 66.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 130248 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z TUE SEP 13 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 90 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.4N 78.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.7N 77.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.6N 77.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 42.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 130249 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS OPHELIA CREEPS TOWARD THE COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 130249 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.9N 78.1W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC 18 3 1 1 23 33.7N 77.8W 33 1 X X 34 MOREHEAD CITY NC 4 9 3 3 19 34.6N 77.2W 9 6 3 2 20 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 5 6 5 16 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 1 2 NORFOLK VA X 1 5 7 13 SAVANNAH GA 4 3 2 1 10 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 8 9 CHARLESTON SC 25 1 X X 26 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 37 X X X 37 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 130250 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z TUE SEP 13 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 130250 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE CENTER. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS SOME IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/10. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A BASIC WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND THE GFDL RATHER SLOWER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.8N 119.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 130251 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-130900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC055-095-AMZ152-154-156-130900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-130900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-130900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT31 KNHC 130258 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS OPHELIA CREEPS TOWARD THE COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 130301 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-130900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-130900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC055-095-AMZ152-154-156-130900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W OREGON-INLET-NC 35.76N 75.51W $$ NCC013-049-137-AMZ135-130900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050913T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KCHS 130302 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-370-374-SCZ044-045-050-130730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1102 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA REMAINS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. BEYOND 20 NM...SEAS WILL APPROACH 18 FT. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION BUT WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND TUESDAY...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 330 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER....AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 130309 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE EMITE AVISO DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE OPHELIA SE DIRIGE HACIA LA COSTA... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT HASTA OREGON INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.9 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 210 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA READQUIRIR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES DE OPHELIA ESTAN LOCALIZADOS RELATIVAMENTE LEJOS DEL CENTRO...ENTRE 50 A 60 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ESTOS VIENTOS LLEGARAN A LA LINEA COSTERA ANTES QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 7 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EN EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 2 DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...31.8 NORTE...77.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA ** WTUS82 KILM 130319 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-033-034-046- 130730- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1115 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING THE COAST AS OPHELIA CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW POSTED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB OR 29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIA MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY IN NORTH CAROLINA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...COLUMBUS...DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN... PENDER...COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER... PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND ROBESON. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AT OPHELIA CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...3 AM TUESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES OVERNIGHT. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS MAY ACTUALLY MOVE IN TO THE INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL. THESE BANDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW. FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 330 AM. $$ MAC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 36.2N 123.6E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 118.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 118.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.8N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.6N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.4N 127.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 118.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 118.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.8N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.6N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.4N 127.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 118.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 118.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.8N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.6N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.4N 127.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 130400 UTC 00HR 36.2N 123.9E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR VIETNAM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECT OPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR VIETNAM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECT OPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT31 KNHC 130551 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$