** WTUS82 KCHS 121830 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-122200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 230 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVERNIGHT. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY TONIGHT...WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DEPARTURE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS AROUND 33O PM IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION BUT WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BECOME MAINLY OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE...IF ANY...RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN MOST HURRICANES...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 6 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 998 HPA AT 35.0N 121.1E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 37.9N 130.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 35.0N 121.1E FAIR MOVE NE 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 37.9N 130.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KILM 121850 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-122230- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 250 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH AND THE NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT IT IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 3 PM TODAY AND 3 AM TUESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES... AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BEGIN TAKING ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO REMOVE THEIR BOATS FROM THE WATER OR SECURE THEM FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM. $$ HAWKINS ** WTKO20 RKSL 121800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TD 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 121800UTC 35.0N 121.0E MOVEMENT NE 11KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 35.3N 121.1E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 38.1N 128.2E 1000HPA 18M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121900 UTC 00HR 35.5N 121.3E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 122032 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z MON SEP 12 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 122032 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 TEN-E IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AND...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER. AS A COMPROMISE AMONG LOW-CONFIDENCE CENTER FIXES...THE CYCLONE IS RELOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...ALBEIT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL CENTER REPOSITIONING. THE DEPRESSION LACKS BANDING FEATURES AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS LOWERED AT 18Z. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY ENTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS STRENGTHENING SCENARIO MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.0N 118.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 127.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 122043 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 122044 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z MON SEP 12 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.3N 77.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 41.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 122044 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.8N 78.0W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC 20 2 1 1 24 33.3N 78.0W 55 1 X X 56 MOREHEAD CITY NC 8 6 3 2 19 34.2N 77.7W 21 2 1 1 25 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 4 6 4 15 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 3 4 NORFOLK VA X 1 4 7 12 SAVANNAH GA 3 5 2 2 12 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 6 7 CHARLESTON SC 20 2 X 1 23 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 34 1 X X 35 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 122052 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED FROM 5 MPH TO 3 MPH... ...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 122000 UTC 00HR 35.8N 121.7E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 122107 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LAS VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PODRIAN EXTENDERSE HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.4 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 260 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA REINTENSIFICARSE A HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. BANDAS DE LLUVIAS EXTERNAS ESTAN CERCA DE LA COSTA EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 7 PIES EN LAS BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EN LA COSTA NORTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR DIRANTE LOS PROXIMOS 2 DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...31.8 NORTE...77.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 122108 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC015-019-035-043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254- 256-330-350-130300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT41 KNHC 122112 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOSTLY OBLITERATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BANDS 50-60 N MI OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT MIXING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT. OPHELIA IS CROSSING THE GULF STREAM SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...UNLESS AND UNTIL THE INNER CORE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA WILL RE-ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. A SLOW AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 310/3...HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE LATE MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL DEFINED AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RECURVE OPHELIA AND TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 DAYS...WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OPHELIA WILL MEANDER OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH CARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIVERSE GUIDANCE BUT DOES INDICATE RECURVATURE...AND A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS SHOWN IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 LANDFALL. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 32.3N 77.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 32.8N 78.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 78.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 77.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 41.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 122114 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC015-019-035-043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254- 256-330-350-130300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KMHX 122120 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ080-093-094-095-098-103-104-130400- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 520 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE...PAMLICO...AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN BEAUFORT COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 11 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ DB ** WTUS82 KCHS 122123 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-130100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 523 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVERNIGHT. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC TROPICAL STORM. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AND THEREFORE PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION BUT WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE...IF ANY...RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN MOST HURRICANES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 9 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 35.9N 122.1E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H P+24HR 40.0N 133.1E 1000HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 35.2N 121.6E FAIR MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 37.9N 131.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.0N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 122200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 118.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 122200 RRC *** MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 122200 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 122200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 118.7W. ** WTPN31 PGTW 122200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.0N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.0N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 122200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 118.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 122221 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099-100-101-SCZ024-033-034-046- 130400- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 625 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...NEW INFORMATION... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ROBESON... BLADEN...COLUMBUS...DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES. AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIA MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BLADEN...PENDER...COLUMBUS... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND HORRY COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...COLUMBUS...DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SUNSET BEACH AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIA CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...3 AM TUESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES... AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO SURF CITY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BEGIN TAKING ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO REMOVE THEIR BOATS FROM THE WATER OR SECURE THEM FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 930 PM. $$ MAC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 122200 UTC 00HR 35.9N 121.0E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 122200 UTC 00HR 35.9N 122.1E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT31 KNHC 122335 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING THE COAST AS OPHELIA CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 122354 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT LUNES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...BANDAS EXTERNAS DE LLUVIA ALCANZAN LA COSTA A MEDIDA QUE OPHELIA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LAS VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PODRIAN EXTENDERSE HACIA EL NORTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 260 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA REINTENSIFICARSE A HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. BANDAS DE LLUVIAS EXTERNAS ESTAN MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LA COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA EN ASOCIACION CON OPHELIA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 7 PIES EN LAS BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EN LA COSTA NORTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 2 DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...31.9 NORTE...77.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 122300 UTC 00HR 35.8N 122.4E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H=