** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 121202 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 121229 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-121630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 829 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. OPHELIA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC HURRICANE. CITIZENS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DEPARTURE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BECOME MAINLY OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 12 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 121245 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-121700- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 845 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY BUT ITS OUTER RAINBANDS ARE APPROACHING THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB OR 29.09 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD KEEP THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST. A WESTWARD DEVIATION IN OPHELIAS TRACK COULD EASILY BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ONSHORE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12 PM. $$ JAQ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 34.4N 120.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 36.5N 125.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 998 HPA AT 34.4N 120.1E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 36.5N 125.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 34.1N 119.9E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 36.8N 124.0E 1000HPA 18M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 121200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 121200UTC 34.1N 119.9E MOVEMENT N 11KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 130000UTC 36.1N 122.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121300 UTC 00HR 34.3N 119.9E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTUS82 KILM 121417 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-121700- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED STORM SURGE TITLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 845 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY BUT ITS OUTER RAINBANDS ARE APPROACHING THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB OR 29.09 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD KEEP THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST. A WESTWARD DEVIATION IN OPHELIAS TRACK COULD EASILY BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ONSHORE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12 PM. $$ JAQ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 121426 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS BEEN NOTED WITH T.D. TEN THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES A CONSENSUS T2.0...30 KT...FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST TO 140W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER 27C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SSTS COOL SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MAINTAINS A STEADY 270-280 DEGREE MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.5N 117.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 121426 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z MON SEP 12 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 121440 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z MON SEP 12 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 121440 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. OPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO UPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS. SHIP AND DRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER. THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM... WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE NEARING THE COAST. AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 31.6N 76.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 121441 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH AND A SLOW... GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 121442 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.3N 77.7W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 9 6 3 2 20 33.0N 77.7W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 6 5 4 17 33.9N 77.4W 21 2 1 1 25 NORFOLK VA X 1 5 7 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 1 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 7 8 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 1 1 2 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 SAVANNAH GA 5 5 2 2 14 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 15 3 2 1 21 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 19 3 1 1 24 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 15 4 2 1 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 121444 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC015-019-035-043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254- 256-330-350-122100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KCHS 121459 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-121900- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1059 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVERNIGHT. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC HURRICANE. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY TONIGHT...WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DEPARTURE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BECOME MAINLY OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE...IF ANY...RAINFALL. IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN MOST HURRICANES...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 3 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 121600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.9N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.3N 120.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.8N 125.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 121521 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-122200- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1120 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN BEAUFORT COUNTY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ DB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121400 UTC 00HR 34.4N 120.1E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC 00HR 34.6N 120.3E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 34.7N 120.6E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 36.5N 125.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KILM 121556 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-122100- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AND THE VERY SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT IT IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...CONSIDER WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ HAWKINS ** WTPN31 PHNC 121600 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.8N 125.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 121600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.9N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.3N 120.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 121600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.9N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.3N 120.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.8N 125.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 121608 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-122100- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1155 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB OR 29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AND THE VERY SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT IT IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH... BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND SURF CITY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND SURF CITY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...CONSIDER WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ HAWKINS ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121600 UTC 00HR 34.8N 120.6E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 121744 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 116.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2005 15.3N 116.4W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2005 15.7N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 15.4N 121.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 15.3N 124.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 15.2N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.7N 129.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 14.7N 132.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 14.7N 135.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 14.6N 138.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 14.4N 141.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.0N 144.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 146.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.2N 149.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 76.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 76.9W INTENSE 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.4N 77.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 31.5N 77.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.1N 78.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.0N 78.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 33.9N 77.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.6N 77.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.5N 76.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 34.8N 75.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 35.5N 74.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 36.4N 71.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 39.6N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 40.6N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121744 ** WTNT31 KNHC 121746 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A SLOW... GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121700 UTC 00HR 35.0N 120.9E 998HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 25KM/H=