** WTNT31 KNHC 120600 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120608 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST LUNES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE MUY LENTAMENTE AL OESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PODRIAN MOVERSE AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.6 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 270 SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. UN MOVIMIENTO GRADUAL AL OESTE-NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...31.2 NORTE...76.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 32.8N 119.3E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 36.2N 122.5E 1000HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 33.0N 119.4E FAIR MOVE N 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 35.7N 122.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 140600UTC 37.1N 131.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 996 HPA AT 33.0N 119.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 35.7N 122.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 37.1N 131.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KCHS 120656 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-121030- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 256 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. INLAND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DEPARTURE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS OVER CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. AT THE PRESENT TIME... FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 630 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ JH ** WTUS82 KILM 120712 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-121200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA ON A SLOW MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 222 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 983 MB OR 29.03 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES OPHELIA'S EYE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION IN OPHELIAS TRACK COULD EASILY BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ONSHORE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE 7 TO 9 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 13 FT. WITH AN OFFHORE NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE WATERS OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...SEAS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY 4 TO 5 FT SURF CONDITIONS. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 17 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY...WITH PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND BARING THE BRUNT. REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...MAINLY ALONG THESE EAST FACING BEACHES. WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...THROUGH TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 AM. $$ HOEHLER ** WTPQ31 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACCELERATE. TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 120600 UTC. TS WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 120708 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-09-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ORISSA COAST NEAR LAT.20.0 DEG N/LONG 88.0 DEG E. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LEVEL PASSES THROUGH ALONG 24 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 33.2N 120.0E MOVEMENT N 13KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 121800UTC 35.0N 121.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT 18HR POSITION 130000UTC 35.7N 122.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120700 UTC 00HR 33.0N 119.4E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120800 UTC 00HR 33.3N 119.6E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTNT31 KNHC 120844 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... ...OUTER RAINBANDS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 120845 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z MON SEP 12 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.4N 77.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.9N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 76.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 120845 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.9N 77.5W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 8 4 2 20 32.5N 77.6W 53 X X X 53 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 8 5 4 18 33.3N 77.5W 27 1 1 X 29 NORFOLK VA X 1 6 7 14 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 X 2 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 8 10 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 2 1 3 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA 3 6 3 2 14 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC 11 5 2 2 20 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 13 5 2 2 22 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 10 7 3 2 22 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 120849 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 CONVECTION WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY YESTERDAY EVENING UNTIL A NEW BUT FAIRLY SMALL BURST DEVELOPED AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A 02Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT LOOKED VERY IMPRESSIVE RECENTLY... THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... WITH WEAK SHEAR RESULTING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEPRESSION AND EXTENDING WESTWARD. SINCE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE... WITH SSTS 27C OR GREATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL REACHING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8... WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 23N. THE FORWARD SPEED IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IS A BIT NARROW. HOWEVER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD HAWAII DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... AT AN INCREASING RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 115.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 120849 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z MON SEP 12 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 120854 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-121500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050912T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-121500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120858 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE TEMPORERAMENTE LENTAMENTE AL OESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO AL SUROESTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE LA PLAYA EDISTO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE LA PLAYA EDISTO CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LAS VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PODRIAN EXTENDERSE HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.7 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 280 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. UN MOVIMIENTO GRADUAL AL NOROESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE LENTA SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MB...29.09 PULGADAS. FUERTES LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS CON OPHELIA PODRIAN A COMENZAR A AFECTAR LOS SECTORES COSTEROS DEL ORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y LA PARTE SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...31.3 NORTE...76.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 120907 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 THE LAST RECON FIX AT 06Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB... A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE... AND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 78 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER... IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MUCH AS THE AVERAGE REDUCTION WOULD DICTATE. SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE NOT ANY MORE IMPRESSIVE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER FORECASTS THE WEAKENING THAT IT HAD PREVIOUSLY AND IS NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE MINIMAL CHANGES IN INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS... UNTIL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOLER WATERS FARTHER NORTHEAST. CONSECUTIVE RECON FIXES THROUGH 06Z INDICATED AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 270/4. OPHELIA HAS COMPLETED A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP AND IS BACK WHERE IT WAS ABOUT 48 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED... SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PROVIDING NEW AND DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. NONE OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IMMUNE FROM SIGNIFICANT TRACK FORECAST SHIFTS DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO IN THIS VERY DIFFICULT SCENARIO. THE LATEST RUNS INCLUDE THE GFDL SHIFTING BACK TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE NOGAPS NOW SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. AS A RESULT THESE MODELS FORECAST OPHELIA TO STILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS 4-5 DAYS FROM NOW. EVEN THOUGH NOGAPS IS A CREDIBLE MODEL... SINCE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A NEW ONE I AM NOT READY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ACCOUNTING FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT NOGAPS AND UKMET COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CORRECT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS ALONG THE SAME PATH... ANTICIPATING A SLOW AND GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 31.3N 76.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 31.4N 77.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 31.9N 77.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 35.5N 76.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 38.5N 72.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 33.4N 119.8E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 36.2N 123.6E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 115.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 115.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.2N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.6N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.9N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 120940 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-121600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 540 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN BEAUFORT COUNTY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AS OPELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND NOON TODAY. $$ TK ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 33.6N 119.6E FAIR MOVE N 14KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 35.9N 123.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 140600UTC 37.1N 131.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRB *** 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 115.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 115.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.2N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.6N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.9N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRC *** 170600Z --- 17.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 115.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 115.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.2N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.6N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.9N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 121005 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-121600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 602 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTING WEST WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 212 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB OR 29.09 INCHES. OPHELIA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OR CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH....BEFORE POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT VICINITY LATER THAT DAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN THE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS STAYING OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. DUE TO THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF OPHELIAS MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL OBSERVE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ENGULF THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE SUSTAINED 55 MPH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST. A WESTWARD DEVIATION IN OPHELIAS TRACK COULD EASILY BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ONSHORE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD...SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. AT OPHELIAS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 18 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSES NEARBY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. ACCOMPANYING THE VERY ROUGH AND LARGE SURF WILL BE STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF COASTLINE WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING TODAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 PM MONDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH END OF CAROLINA BEACH...AND ROADWAYS BORDERING MARSHES AND SOUNDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE EAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. CONTINUED BUILDING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE BEACH EROSION PROCESS. SURF CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH SURF 3 TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. OPHELIAS SOLID RAIN BANDS WILL LURK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTLINE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LOCATED 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY LESS. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 9 AM. $$ HOEHLER ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 33.6N 120.0E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTUS82 KCHS 121021 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-121330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 621 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 ..TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLOW MOVING AND ERRACTIC HURRICANE. CITIZENS IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK... THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DEPARTURE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING UP TO 14 FEET. THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WERE BATTERED DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BECOME MAINLY OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. IF OPHELIA TRACKS FURTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE. WITH ALL RIVERS WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 930 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ JH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121000 UTC 00HR 33.6N 120.0E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 121100 UTC 00HR 33.7N 120.1E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 20KM/H=