** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KCHS 120033 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-130045- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 833 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 31.9N 119.5E 995HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 35.9N 121.9E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 37.6N 127.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 31.7N 119.4E FAIR MOVE NW 16KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 34.9N 121.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 140000UTC 36.1N 125.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 992 HPA AT 31.7N 119.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 34.9N 121.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 36.1N 125.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KILM 120102 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-120400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 900 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 7 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 AM MONDAY ...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH...CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MAC ** WTPQ31 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 120000 UTC. TS WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 120000UTC 32.0N 120.4E MOVEMENT N 17KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 121200UTC 33.8N 121.0E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT 24HR POSITION 130000UTC 35.2N 121.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120100 UTC 00HR 32.1N 119.5E 998HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120200 UTC 00HR 32.3N 119.5E 1000HPA 22M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H= ** WTNT41 KNHC 120239 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT OPHELIA REMAINS AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED UPWELLING. NO WONDER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RESEMBLES AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE...AND WHEN OPHELIA BEGINS TO MOVE...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE WARMER OCEAN. THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE ONLY SHOWING A VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER-MEAN HIGH FORMING NORTH OF OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE...AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CONSEQUENTLY...OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PAINFULLY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE UNITED STATES COAST WITHIN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BY THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LAST RUN DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH SKIRTED THE COAST IN THE LAST RUN ARE NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS BUT I DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT WESTWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET...IN CASE THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT. BY INSPECTING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH NORTH OF OPHELIA...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR THE PORTION BEFORE LANDFALL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 31.1N 76.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 120239 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z MON SEP 12 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 120240 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 120240 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z MON SEP 12 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 76.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 120240 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.8N 77.5W 77 X X X 77 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 7 5 5 18 32.2N 77.6W 59 X X X 59 NORFOLK VA X 2 5 7 14 32.9N 77.7W 30 1 1 X 32 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 8 10 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 1 2 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 1 2 4 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 3 2 7 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 3 3 3 9 TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 SAVANNAH GA 1 5 4 4 14 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 CHARLESTON SC 7 5 4 3 19 ST MARKS FL X X 1 2 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC 9 6 3 3 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 8 7 3 3 21 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC 5 8 4 3 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 120244 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z MON SEP 12 2005 ...CORRECTION TO THE DEPRESSION NUMBER...TEN-E TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 120246 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEATH A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE MOVING IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSER TO COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE MID-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST FORCING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.9N 114.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 120248 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE TEMPORALMENTE AL OESTE-SUROESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PODRIAN MOVERSE AL NORTE EL LUNES. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.4 OESTE O COMO A 240 MILLAS O COMO A 290 MILLAS AL SUR DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE SUROESTE A 3 MPH. UN MOVIMIENTO GRADUAL AL OESTE Y OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 981 MB...28.97 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...31.1 NORTE...76.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE SUROESTE A 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...981 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ CASTRO ** WTNT81 KNHC 120253 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-120900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KCHS 120257 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-120730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1057 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. ...WIND IMPACTS... CURRENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND WINDS HAVE BEEN 10 TO 20 MPH. INLAND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL... FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ JH ** WTUS82 KILM 120323 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-120800- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1123 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB OR 28.97 INCHES. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH...CONTINUE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES... WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 7 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND. REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 AM MONDAY ...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH...CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 AM. $$ MAC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120300 UTC 00HR 32.4N 119.4E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTUS82 KMHX 120327 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-121200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1130 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 290 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER LEVELS COULD RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN BEAUFORT COUNTY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 35 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS WERE RUNNING 12 TO 14 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 AM MONDAY. $$ JME ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 32.2N 119.5E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 35.1N 121.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 140000UTC 36.1N 125.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.8N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 112251Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 112300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.8N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRC *** 170000Z --- 18.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 112251Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 112300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRB *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/112251ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.8N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 112251Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 112300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120400 UTC 00HR 32.5N 119.3E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 120527 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 114.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2005 14.7N 114.5W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2005 15.2N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 15.3N 118.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 15.3N 120.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 15.5N 123.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 15.5N 125.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 15.4N 128.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 15.3N 131.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 15.3N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 15.2N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 14.7N 140.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.6N 143.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.3N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 76.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.3N 76.0W INTENSE 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.4N 77.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.4N 78.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 31.9N 78.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.7N 78.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.7N 78.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.3N 77.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.0N 76.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.3N 76.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 EXTRA - TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120527 ** WTTH20 VTBB 120000 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAMETROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 13.0N 113.0E POOR MOVEW SLOWLY PRES1000HPA MXWD027KT FORECAST 24HF130000UTC 13.5N 112.0E MOVEWNW SLOWLY PRES998HPA MXWD030KT 48HF140000UTC 14.0N 111.0E MOVEWNW 08KT PRES998HPA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 120500 UTC 00HR 32.7N 119.3E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H=