** WTUS82 KCHS 111814 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-112215- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 214 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 30.5N 120.1E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.2N 125.0E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 39.0N 133.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 111845 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-112200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...TONIGHT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SIMILAR ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF HEIGHTS RANGING TO AROUND 10 FT...AND STRONG RIPS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..AROUND 2 PM...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SO FAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ TM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 30.5N 120.1E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.2N 125.0E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 39.0N 133.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 111850 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-112200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...TONIGHT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF HEIGHTS RANGING TO AROUND 10 FT...AND STRONG RIPS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..AROUND 2 PM...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SO FAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM. $$ TM ** WTJP22 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 30.4N 120.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 33.9N 121.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.9N 126.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 30.4N 120.8E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM EAST 90NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 33.9N 121.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 131800UTC 35.9N 126.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KILM 111845 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-112200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...TONIGHT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SIMILAR ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF HEIGHTS RANGING TO AROUND 10 FT...AND STRONG RIPS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..AROUND 2 PM...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SO FAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ TM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 30.5N 120.1E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.2N 125.0E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 39.0N 133.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 111850 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-112200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...TONIGHT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF HEIGHTS RANGING TO AROUND 10 FT...AND STRONG RIPS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..AROUND 2 PM...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SO FAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 PM. $$ TM ** WTJP22 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 30.4N 120.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 33.9N 121.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.9N 126.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 30.4N 120.8E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM EAST 90NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 33.9N 121.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 131800UTC 35.9N 126.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 111800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME STS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 111800UTC 30.4N 120.5E MOVEMENT NNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 120600UTC 32.3N 120.5E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT 24HR POSITION 121800UTC 34.0N 121.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 130600UTC 35.3N 123.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111900 UTC 00HR 30.8N 120.0E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 111945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 111800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC THREE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (34.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC THREE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (38.2 N) ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (133.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 111800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC THREE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (34.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC THREE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (38.2 N) ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (133.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 120.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 120.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.6N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 34.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 120.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 15W IS RAPIDLY WEAKEN- ING AS IT TRACKS INLAND. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE YELLOW SEA AFTER TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 112038 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 61 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 77 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 65 KT. BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPWELLED COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO THE ENERGIZING EFFECT OF THE GULF STREAM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A LARGE INCREASE IN STRENGTH...INTENSITY PREDICTIONS CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF 1 SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING BY DAYS 4-5. THE CENTER DRIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO FAR THE MOVEMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY. OPHELIA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS. THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO BE BROKEN UP IN 2-3 DAYS BY A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE THE U.K. MET MOVES THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE KEEPS OPHELIA WELL EAST OF THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD BASED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...DICTATE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 31.5N 76.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 112039 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z SUN SEP 11 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 76.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 112039 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 112039 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.9N 77.1W 99 X X X 99 NORFOLK VA X 1 5 6 12 32.4N 77.3W 56 X X X 56 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 7 8 32.9N 77.3W 42 X X X 42 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 2 3 6 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 3 3 4 10 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 3 4 SAVANNAH GA 2 6 4 3 15 ST MARKS FL X X 1 4 5 CHARLESTON SC 8 6 3 2 19 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC 12 5 2 2 21 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 WILMINGTON NC 11 5 3 2 21 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC 8 6 3 3 20 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 7 4 4 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 120.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 120.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.6N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 34.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 120.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 15W IS RAPIDLY WEAKEN- ING AS IT TRACKS INLAND. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE YELLOW SEA AFTER TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.// ** WTNT81 KNHC 112047 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA SCC015-019-035-AMZ330-350-120300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254-256-120300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050911T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 112053 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS... A LAS 5 PM...2100Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO DESDE EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PODRIAN MOVERSE AL NORTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL LUNES. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS O COMO A 255 MILLAS AL SUR DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA ESTA ESTACIONARIA Y UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO AL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 978 MB...28.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...31.5 NORTE...76.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...978 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112000 UTC 00HR 31.1N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT41 KNHC 112100 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...CORRECTED GFS TO GFDL IN SECOND PARAGRAPH... MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 61 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 77 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 65 KT. BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPWELLED COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO THE ENERGIZING EFFECT OF THE GULF STREAM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A LARGE INCREASE IN STRENGTH...INTENSITY PREDICTIONS CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF 1 SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING BY DAYS 4-5. THE CENTER DRIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO FAR THE MOVEMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY. OPHELIA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS. THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO BE BROKEN UP IN 2-3 DAYS BY A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE THE U.K. MET MOVES THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE KEEPS OPHELIA WELL EAST OF THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD BASED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...DICTATE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 31.5N 76.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 112101 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-120415- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 501 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 112125 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-120400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 525 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...TONIGHT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 7 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH REPORTS OF EROSION DROP OFFS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF HEIGHTS RANGING TO AROUND 11 FT...AND STRONG RIPS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 2 AM MONDAY ...WE CAN EXPECT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SUCH AS CANAL DRIVE AT CAROLINA BEACH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WERE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 1130 PM. $$ MAC ** WTJP32 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 985 HPA AT 31.2N 119.7E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 34.2N 120.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 31.2N 119.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 34.2N 120.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 131800UTC 35.9N 126.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 31.3N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 31.3N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 35.2N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.3N 125.8E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 38.0N 134.8E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 31.3N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 31.3N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 35.2N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.3N 125.8E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 38.0N 134.8E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN21 PGTW 112300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112251ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251621Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 112.3W TO 17.9N 121.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 14.6N 113.9W, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 112300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112251ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251621Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 112.3W TO 17.9N 121.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 14.6N 113.9W, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z.// ** WTPN21 PHNC 112300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112251ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 112.3W TO 17.9N 121.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 14.6N 113.9W, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 112338 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. A NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF OPHELIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 56 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 112339 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-120400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 540 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 35 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ CGG ** WTCA41 TJSJ 112346 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 22A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA PARECE ESTAR MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL OESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PODRIAN MOVERSE AL NORTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL LUNES. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.2 OESTE O COMO A 245 MILLAS O COMO A 255 MILLAS AL SUR DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL OESTE. UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO AL OESTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. UNA BOYA DE LA NOAA LOCALIZADA AL NORESTE DE OPHELIA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS DE 56 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 978 MB...28.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...31.4 NORTE...76.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...978 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 112300 UTC 00HR 31.7N 119.6E 992HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 30KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H=