** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KCHS 111223 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-111630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 823 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...TIDAL DEPARTURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS... MAINLY NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH...LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 29.3N 120.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTUS82 KILM 111245 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 840 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COAST WAS REPORTED... WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12 NOON. $$ TM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 29.3N 120.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 33.9N 120.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.4N 122.6E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 37.6N 129.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 29.2N 121.1E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST 30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 32.8N 120.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 131200UTC 36.0N 124.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 970 HPA AT 29.2N 121.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 32.8N 120.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 36.0N 124.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 111200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 111200UTC 29.2N 121.1E MOVEMENT NW 11KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 120000UTC 30.9N 120.2E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 24HR POSITION 121200UTC 32.8N 120.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT 36HR POSITION 130000UTC 34.7N 121.4E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT 48HR POSITION 131200UTC 35.9N 124.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 29.3N 121.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 121.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.3N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.2N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 120.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN) HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MADE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHI. NEXT WARNING AT 112100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111300 UTC 00HR 29.4N 120.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 111345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111200 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC THREE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (35.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (37.6 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (131.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111200 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC THREE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (35.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (37.6 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (131.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111400 UTC 00HR 29.7N 120.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 111436 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z SUN SEP 11 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N 75.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.9N 76.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N 76.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 111441 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL STATIONARY...SLIGHTLY WEAKER... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 111441 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.9N 76.1W 99 X X X 99 CHARLESTON SC 1 5 4 4 14 32.2N 76.5W 99 X X X 99 MYRTLE BEACH SC 6 8 3 2 19 32.7N 76.7W 37 X 1 X 38 WILMINGTON NC 9 7 3 2 21 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC 9 6 2 3 20 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC 3 5 3 4 15 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X 2 3 7 12 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 6 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 3 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X 1 2 5 8 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 111449 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC015-019-035-043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254- 256-330-350-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT41 KNHC 111449 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TWO FACTORS MITIGATING AGAINST INTENSIFICATION ARE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW SIXTIES...AND COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BENEATH THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE. OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS FORECAST AS WELL. OPHELIA CONTINUES STUCK BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS...AND UNABLE TO MAKE CONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS STEERING...OR LACK OF STEERING...REGIME IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO BEGIN MOVING ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD HEADING. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...BUT THE NEW NOGAPS RUN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT 3-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY 200 NAUTICAL MILES. NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOVEMENT...AND THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS HAS NOT CHANGED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 31.6N 75.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 31.6N 75.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 31.9N 76.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 32.2N 76.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 32.7N 76.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 76.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 37.5N 74.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 111513 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-112000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1111 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TODAY. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST TO BALD HEAD ISLAND...WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT DROP ON THE BEACHES. ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..AROUND 2 PM...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 PM. $$ TM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC 00HR 30.0N 120.5E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H= ** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KCHS 111543 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-111945- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1143 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...THEN START TO DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 975 HPA AT 29.7N 120.7E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 33.0N 120.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 29.7N 120.7E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST 30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 33.0N 120.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 131200UTC 36.0N 124.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMHX 111550 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-111600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1150 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 14 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ CGG ** WTUS82 KCHS 111223 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-SCZ044-045-050-111630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 823 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...TIDAL DEPARTURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS... MAINLY NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH...LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 29.3N 120.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTUS82 KILM 111245 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 840 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OVER HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COAST WAS REPORTED... WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12 NOON. $$ TM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 29.3N 120.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 33.9N 120.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.4N 122.6E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 37.6N 129.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 29.2N 121.1E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST 30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 32.8N 120.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 131200UTC 36.0N 124.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 970 HPA AT 29.2N 121.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 32.8N 120.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 36.0N 124.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KMHX 111612 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-112200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1210 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 14 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ CGG ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111600 UTC 00HR 30.1N 120.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 111645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111500 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC THREE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (34.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC THREE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (35.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (37.9 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (131.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111500 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC THREE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (34.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC THREE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (35.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (37.9 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (131.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 111730 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS MEANDERED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 111743 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 14.5N 121.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2005 14.5N 121.8W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2005 14.4N 124.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.3N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 13.7N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 13.7N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.6N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.6N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.4N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.4N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 75.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.8N 75.8W STRONG 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.1N 76.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 78.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.3N 77.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 31.9N 77.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.3N 77.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.6N 76.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 34.4N 76.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 33.8N 75.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 33.8N 74.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 34.4N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 36.2N 74.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 37.3N 71.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111743 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111700 UTC 00HR 30.3N 120.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=