** WTCA41 TJSJ 110609 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN OPHELIA CATEGORIA UNO A PENAS SE ESTA MOVIENDO... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL RIO SAVANAH CAROLINA DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER MOVIDA AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.8 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 250...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUR-SUROESTE Y SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO HOY. DATOIS UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA BOYA 41002 DE LA NOAA LOCALIZADA COMO A 50 MILLAS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE CERCA DE 40 MPH. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 979 MB...28.91 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...31.6 NORTE...75.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL SUR-SUROESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 28.3N 121.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 28.3N 121.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 28.3N 121.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 28.3N 121.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 32.7N 120.0E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 35.4N 121.6E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 36.4N 125.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 28.3N 121.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 32.2N 119.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 35.5N 122.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 36.8N 129.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 28.3N 121.9E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 32.2N 119.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 130600UTC 35.5N 122.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 140600UTC 36.8N 129.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KCHS 110651 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-111030- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 251 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...TIDAL DEPARTURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 AM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JPC ** WTIN20 DEMS 110700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-09-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND NOTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.5 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS82 KILM 110701 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111030- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INLAND WITH OPHELIA'S RAINBANDS MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE 7 TO 8 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...CAROLINA BEACH...AND KURE BEACH WAS REPORTED SATURDAY WITH A 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...TIDE LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG CANAL DRIVE IN CAROLINA BEACH. SIMILAR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE EYE OF OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL. IF OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...THE STORM SURGE NEAR THE EYE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 8 FEET...CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 AM. $$ RAS ** WTUS82 KILM 110704 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111030- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED STORM INFO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979 MB OR 28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INLAND WITH OPHELIA'S RAINBANDS MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE 7 TO 8 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 18 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...CAROLINA BEACH...AND KURE BEACH WAS REPORTED SATURDAY WITH A 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...TIDE LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG CANAL DRIVE IN CAROLINA BEACH. SIMILAR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE EYE OF OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL. IF OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...THE STORM SURGE NEAR THE EYE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 8 FEET...CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 6 AM. $$ RAS ** WTPQ31 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 110600 UTC. TY WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE EAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 54 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 28.3N 121.9E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 111800UTC 30.7N 120.4E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 32.5N 119.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 36HR POSITION 121800UTC 34.1N 120.1E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 35.2N 121.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 121.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 121.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.5N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.5N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 121.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN) IS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF SONGMEN, CHINA APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110700 UTC 00HR 28.5N 121.5E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 110745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110600 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (32.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC THREE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (35.4 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC THREE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (36.7 N) ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110800 UTC 00HR 28.7N 121.4E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 110840 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z SUN SEP 11 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FROM SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 75.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 75.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.6N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.6N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 76.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 39.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 75.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 110841 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT REMAINS STATIONARY... ...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FROM SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 245 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 110841 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.6N 76.2W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC 5 8 4 2 19 32.0N 76.5W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 9 3 2 20 32.6N 76.7W 98 X X X 98 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 9 4 2 17 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X 3 6 5 14 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 3 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X 4 5 9 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 5 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 3 4 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 4 5 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 5 6 VENICE FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 5 6 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 1 2 6 9 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 1 4 4 5 14 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 4 6 4 3 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 110843 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC015-019-035-043-051-AMZ158-250-252-254- 256-330-350-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ SCC013-029-053-AMZ352-111500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110900 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN OPHELIA LEVEMENTE MAS FUERTE PERO CONTINUA ESTACIONARIO... ...SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO HOY... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...UNA PORCION DEL AREA DE VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORESTE HASTA EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA CAMIBIARSE AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.9 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 245...390 KM...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA ESTA ESTACIONARIA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CASI ESTACIONARIA HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ERA DE 978 MB...28.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...31.7 NORTE...75.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...978 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110900 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 AIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 85 KT ABOUT 25 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER AS THEY DEPARTED FROM THEIR LAST FIX AT AROUND 06Z. THIS IS THE STRONGEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED TO DATE IN OPHELIA AND SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 75 KT. THE MOST RECENT CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE WAS 978 MB...BASICALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 75 KT INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS ARE ONLY 4.0 DUE TO THE SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE COMING OUT OF THE GOES-12 ECLIPSE PERIOD... SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA IS AGAIN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 75 KT. WHILE OPHELIA MIGHT BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA COULD CAUSE OCEAN UPWELLING AND PROVIDE A COUNTERACTING LIMITATION ON THE INTENSITY. GIVEN THIS REASONING AND THAT NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS 75 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OPHELIA REMAINS STATIONARY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. LACKING A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED. THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THE U.S. RIDGE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD THEN FINALLY GET OPHELIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE NOAA G-IV JET LAST NIGHT... SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE 00Z GFS HAS SHIFTED MORE THAN 100 MILES WESTWARD AND NOW FORECASTS LANDFALL OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THIS SHIFT BRINGS THE GFS INTO REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST AT 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THERAFTER... TO CONFORM WITH THIS GUIDANCE...BUT IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE PERIOD OF SLOW MOTION THROUGH DAY TWO. THE NEW FORECAST IMPLIES A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF OPHELIA DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... SO A SMALL PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... SINCE OPHELIA IS NOT YET MOVING... IT IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 31.7N 75.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 31.6N 76.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 31.6N 76.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 32.6N 76.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 76.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 39.5N 71.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110905 *** TCPSP1 --RESUMEN DEL ESTADO DEL TIEMPO PARA PUERTO RICO SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR 1100 PM AST SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 DESPUES QUE EL AREA AISLADA DE LLUVIA FUERTE DISMINUYO DESDE TEMPRANO EN LA TARDE...LAS ISLAS LOCALES ESTUVIERON PARCIALMENTE NUBLADAS CON ALGUNOS AGUACEROS DISPERSOS DE LEVES A MODERADOS DURANTE LAS HORAS DE LA NOCHE. UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUARA PASANDO A TRAVES DEL AREA LOCAL DURANTE EL ANOCHECER Y EL DOMINGO CON UN AUMENTO ASOCIADO EN LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS. UNA ATMOSFERA MENOS HUMEDA Y MAS ESTABLE ESTARA SOBRE LAS ISLAS LOCALES EL LUNES HASTA PROBABLEMENTE EL MIERCOLES. PARA LAS CONDICIONES MARITIMAS...MAREJADAS DEL NORTE Y NORTE NORESTE DE PEQUENAS A MODERADAS DESDE LOS REMANENTES DE LOS CICLONES TROPICALES NATE Y MARIA...CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO LAS AGUAS REGIONALES DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA...MANTENIENDO EL OLEAJE MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO A CERCA DE 5 PIES. UNA CORRIENTE DE VIENTOS ALISIOS MODERADOS SE DESARROLLARA HACIA LA REGION PARA PRODUCIR OLEAJE PICADO A TRAVES DEL CARIBE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 28.8N 121.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 33.4N 120.2E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTUS82 KMHX 110930 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-111600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 530 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 14 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT NOON TODAY. $$ TK ** WTUS82 KILM 110941 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 540 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE ON TUESDAY. OVER LAND...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD INLAND WITH OPHELIA'S RAINBANDS MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE AROUND 6 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS UP TO 14 FT. AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER...SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FEET. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO VERY ROUGH SURF...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...CAROLINA BEACH...AND KURE BEACH WAS REPORTED SATURDAY WITH A 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS ROUGH SURF AND STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS PERSIST. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG CANAL DRIVE IN CAROLINA BEACH. SIMILAR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE EAST FACING BEACH COMMUNITIES. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA EAST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. ...RAINFALL... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL. BECAUSE RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 9 AM. $$ RAS ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 28.8N 121.3E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 32.5N 119.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 130600UTC 35.5N 122.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 140600UTC 36.8N 129.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 960 HPA AT 28.8N 121.3E LOWER CHANG JIANG MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 32.5N 119.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KCHS 110950 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-111330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 550 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...TIDAL DEPARTURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS... MAINLY NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH...LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM POSSIBLY REACHING 14 FEET. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JPC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111000 UTC 00HR 28.9N 121.1E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 111045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110900 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC THREE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (33.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (35.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (37.3 N) ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (130.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 111142 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 111100 UTC 00HR 29.1N 121.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111152 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM DOMINGO 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN OPHELIA LEVEMENTE MAS FUERTE PERO CONTINUA ESTACIONARIO... ...SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO HOY... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA CAMBIARSE AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LOS INTERESES EN LA REGION COSTERA DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.7 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS O COMO A 255 MILLAS AL SUR DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DE NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO CON MUY POCO RUMBO PERO ESTA CASI ESTACIONARIA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CASI ESTACIONARIA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 H ORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AERA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 979 MB...29.91 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...31.6 NORTE...75.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$