** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 27.2N 122.7E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 27.2N 122.7E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 120.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 35.0N 120.6E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 36.4N 124.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 110032 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-110500- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 835 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...ABOUT OR 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THE REST OF TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 977 MB OR 28.85 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH OPHELIA A STRONG CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE 7 TO 8 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE HIGHER TO AROUND 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...CAROLINA BEACH...AND KURE BEACH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT CAROLINA BEACH ALONG CANAL DRIVE. AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER ON THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR THE EYE LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 10 FT...CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ 03 ** WTUS82 KCHS 110040 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-110430- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 840 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT... OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST NEARING THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS WILL GIVE ESTIMATED STORM TIDE READINGS AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 200 AM AND 400 AM: U.S. HIGHWAY 17 BRIDGE AT THE SANTEE 6 TO 7 FEET BULLS BAY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE 6 TO 7 FEET CHARLESTON HARBOR 6 TO 7 FEET FRIPP INLET BRIDGE 6 TO 7 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY LATE MONDAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 27.3N 122.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 31.4N 120.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 34.9N 121.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 35.7N 124.9E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 27.3N 122.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 31.4N 120.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 130000UTC 34.9N 121.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 140000UTC 35.7N 124.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 110000 UTC. TY WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 110000UTC 27.3N 122.7E MOVEMENT NNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 111200UTC 29.5N 121.2E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 24HR POSITION 120000UTC 31.7N 120.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 121200UTC 33.4N 120.1E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 130000UTC 35.0N 120.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT 60HR POSITION 131200UTC 35.6N 122.7E WITHIN 160NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110100 UTC 00HR 27.4N 122.4E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 110145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110000 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (31.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (34.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC THREE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (35.6 N) ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (127.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.6N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.6N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.5N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 122.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110200 UTC 00HR 27.5N 122.3E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 110237 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z SUN SEP 11 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 75.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110237 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE WINDS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT. OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6 HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ALTANTIC. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART OF THAT TIME. OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH THE SLOW-MOVING STORM. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA PASSED OVER IT. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM. SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.8N 75.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 110238 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.7N 76.1W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC 6 6 4 2 18 32.0N 76.4W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 3 6 4 3 16 32.4N 76.7W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 3 4 5 12 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X 1 7 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 4 6 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 4 4 4 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC 3 7 4 3 17 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC 7 6 4 2 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 110238 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 110242 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-051-053-AMZ158- 250-252-254-256-330-350-352-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTNT81 KNHC 110242 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-051-053-AMZ158- 250-252-254-256-330-350-352-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110249 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA NUEVAMENTE CASI ESTACIONARIA CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL RIO SAVANAH CAROLINA DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER MOVIDA AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.8 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 235...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA ESTA CASI ESTACIONARIA. POCO MOVIMIENTO ES ANTICIPADO EL RESTO DE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 41002 LOCALIZADA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 47 MPH. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 978 MB...28.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...31.8 NORTE...75.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...NORESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 978 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110300 UTC 00HR 27.6N 122.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 110300 RRB *** VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.5N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 122.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 110300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.6N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.6N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTPN32 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.6N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.6N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.5N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 122.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTUS82 KILM 110344 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-110800- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...ABOUT OR 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 977 MB OR 28.85 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE TRACK OF OPHELIA IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE THAT OPHELIA COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION AS A STRONG CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS WERE 7 TO 8 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE HIGHER TO AROUND 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...CAROLINA BEACH...AND KURE BEACH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 3 FOOT DROP IN PLACES. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT CAROLINA BEACH ALONG CANAL DRIVE. AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER ON THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR THE EYE LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 10 FT...CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THE LATEST STORM AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 3 AM. $$ 03 ** WTUS82 KCHS 110345 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-110730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA WELL OFF THE COAST...TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...TIDAL DEPARTURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE WINDS FROM OPHELIA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 27.6N 122.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 31.9N 119.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 27.6N 122.3E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 31.9N 119.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 130000UTC 34.9N 121.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 140000UTC 35.7N 124.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMHX 110357 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-111000- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...OPHELIA AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT YOU KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. SURGES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SPREAD INLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. $$ RSB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110400 UTC 00HR 27.9N 122.1E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 110445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110300 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (34.8 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC THREE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (35.8 N) ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (128.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 110530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 14.7N 121.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2005 14.7N 121.0W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2005 14.6N 123.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.6N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.4N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 14.3N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.9N 133.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.8N 136.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 75.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.8N 75.8W STRONG 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.8N 75.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 76.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.5N 77.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 32.3N 77.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 33.0N 77.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 33.8N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 34.7N 76.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 35.4N 75.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 35.4N 73.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 35.5N 71.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2005 35.3N 70.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 36.1N 69.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110530 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 110500 UTC 00HR 28.1N 121.9E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT31 KNHC 110559 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 ...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OPHELIA HARDLY MOVING... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB... 28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$