** WTUS82 KCHS 101803 *** HLSCHS AMZ350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-110000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 203 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND IMPACT THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS WILL GIVE ESTIMATED STORM TIDE READINGS AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 200 AND 300 AM: U.S. HIGHWAY 17 BRIDGE 9 FEET BULLS BAY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE 8.5 FEET CHARLESTON HARBOR 7.5 FEET FRIPP INLET BRIDGE 6.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND THEN IMPACT THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER FROM THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WHERE THE STORM CENTER MOVES ASHORE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF CHARLESTON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...INLAND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OTHER INLAND COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 26.1N 123.5E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 26.1N 123.5E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 30.3N 120.5E 970HPA 33M/S P+48HR 34.3N 119.8E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 36.0N 122.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 101800 *** WARNING 101800. WARNING VALID 111800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 26.1N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 28.1N 122.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 30.3N 120.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 34.3N 120.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.6N 123.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 26.1N 123.5E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 30.3N 120.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 121800UTC 34.3N 120.0E 160NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 131800UTC 35.6N 123.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101900 UTC 00HR 26.3N 123.4E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTUS82 KILM 101956 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 355 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST...ABOUT OR 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 976 MB OR 28.82 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY. WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED BY BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A 3 FOOT DROP OFF ON THE BEACH. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT CAROLINA BEACH ALONG CANAL DRIVE. AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER ON THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR THE EYE LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 8 TO 10 FT...CAUSING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. $$ 19 ** WTUS82 KILM 101959 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 355 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST...ABOUT OR 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 976 MB OR 28.82 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY. WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED BY BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A 3 FOOT DROP OFF ON THE BEACH. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT CAROLINA BEACH ALONG CANAL DRIVE. AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER ON THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR THE EYE LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 8 TO 10 FT...CAUSING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. $$ 19 ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101800 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC THREE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (30.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC THREE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (34.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 102000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 102000 UTC 00HR 26.5N 123.3E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT31 KNHC 102030 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...LARGE OPHELIA BARELY MOVING... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MEANDERING MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 102030 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 76.0W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 9 6 2 2 19 32.2N 76.6W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 7 2 3 14 32.5N 77.5W 48 X X X 48 NORFOLK VA X 3 4 4 11 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 4 6 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 2 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 3 4 MYGF 266N 787W X X 3 4 7 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL X X 1 3 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 4 6 FT MYERS FL X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL X X 3 4 7 VENICE FL X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X 3 5 8 TAMPA FL X X 1 4 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 4 5 9 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 4 5 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 4 6 10 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X 2 5 5 12 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 1 6 5 4 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 6 7 3 3 19 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 10 6 2 2 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 102031 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z SAT SEP 10 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 160SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 76.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 102031 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN. BUT IN GENERAL... LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 31.8N 76.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.1N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 102100 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.1N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 102100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.1N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTNT81 KNHC 102045 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-051-053-AMZ158- 250-252-254-256-330-350-352-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 102049 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... EXTENSA OPHELIA APENAS MOVIENDOSE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL RIO SAVANAH CAROLINA DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER MOVIDA AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.2 OESTE O COMO A 230 MILLAS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 240...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. POCO MOVIMIENTO ES ANTICIPADO ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS SIGNIFICATIVOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 977 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...31.8 NORTE...76.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 977 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 102100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 102100 UTC 00HR 26.7N 123.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 102125 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z SAT SEP 10 2005 ...CORRECT 120 HR FROM INLAND TO OVER WATER... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 160SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 76.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 102127 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...CORRECTED 120 HR TABLE FROM INLAND TO OVER WATER... LATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN. BUT IN GENERAL... LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 31.8N 76.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 102100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 102100 UTC 00HR 26.7N 123.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 120.7E 980HPA 28M/S P+48HR 34.6N 120.5E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 35.9N 123.5E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS82 KCHS 102137 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-110400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 537 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND IMPACT THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST NEARING THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS WILL GIVE ESTIMATED STORM TIDE READINGS AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 200 AM AND 400 AM: U.S. HIGHWAY 17 BRIDGE AT THE SANTEE 6 TO 7 FEET BULLS BAY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE 6 TO 7 FEET CHARLESTON HARBOR 6 TO 7 FEET FRIPP INLET BRIDGE 6 TO 7 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND THEN IMPACT THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE TRACK OF OPHELIA SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER FROM THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WHERE THE STORM CENTER MOVES ASHORE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY WELL TO THE NORTH OF CHARLESTON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OTHER INLAND COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 16 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTUS82 KILM 102143 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 540 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE LOOKOUT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST...ABOUT OR 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH AND 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 977 MB OR 28.85 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH OPHELIA A STRONG CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED AT THE ONSLOW BUOY...5 MILES OFF CAME LEJUNE...WERE 7 TO 8 FT...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFF THE COAST REPORTED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE HIGHER THAN 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BEACH EROSION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CAROLINA BEACH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 FOOT DROP OFF ON THE BEACH. WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WIND...WATER LEVELS ON EAST FACING BEACHES ARE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT CAROLINA BEACH ALONG CANAL DRIVE. AT THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER ON THE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BASED ON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR THE EYE LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 10 FT...CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. $$ 19 ** WTJP32 RJTD 102100 *** WARNING 102100. WARNING VALID 112100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 26.7N 123.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 28.9N 121.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 31.2N 120.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 26.7N 123.3E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 31.2N 120.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 121800UTC 34.3N 120.0E 160NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 131800UTC 35.6N 123.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMHX 102159 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-110400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 600 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING LITTLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH SOUTH-EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA MOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY AROUND 2 MPH. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT YOU KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. SURGES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SPREAD INLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ TK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 102200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 102200 UTC 00HR 26.9N 123.0E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 102245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 102100 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC THREE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (34.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC THREE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (35.5 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (126.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 102300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 102300 UTC 00HR 27.1N 122.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT31 KNHC 102340 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS OPHELIA JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THE REST OF TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 102345 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... CAZA HURACANES REPORTA OPHELIA ESTA UN POCO MAS LEJOS AL ESTE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE EL RIO SAVANAH CAROLINA DEL SUR AL NORESTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER MOVIDA AL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.9 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 235...AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE. POCO MOVIMIENTO ES ANTICIPADO EL RESTO DE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS SIGNIFICATIVOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 977 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...31.8 NORTE...75.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...NORESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 977 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ CASTRO