** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 25.1N 124.4E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 25.1N 124.4E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.2N 120.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 33.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 37.0N 120.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 25.1N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 27.2N 123.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 29.4N 121.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 33.7N 120.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 35.4N 122.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 25.1N 124.5E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 250NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 29.4N 121.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 121200UTC 33.7N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 131200UTC 35.4N 122.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 101200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 101200UTC 25.1N 124.5E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 110000UTC 27.1N 122.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 111200UTC 29.4N 121.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 36HR POSITION 120000UTC 31.5N 120.3E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 121200UTC 33.8N 120.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 131200UTC 35.7N 121.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101300 UTC 00HR 25.3N 124.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101400 UTC 00HR 25.4N 124.0E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 101436 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 101437 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.2N 76.9W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 10 4 2 1 17 32.3N 77.4W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 4 2 3 11 32.5N 78.0W 31 1 X X 32 NORFOLK VA X 2 3 4 9 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 3 4 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 2 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X 1 2 4 7 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 MIAMI FL X X 1 4 5 FT MYERS FL X X 1 4 5 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 4 7 VENICE FL X X 1 4 5 FT PIERCE FL X 1 3 5 9 TAMPA FL X X 1 6 7 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 3 5 10 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 5 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 3 4 4 11 ST MARKS FL X X 1 5 6 JACKSONVILLE FL X 4 4 4 12 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA 3 6 4 3 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC 12 5 2 2 21 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 18 3 1 1 23 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4 WILMINGTON NC 17 3 1 1 22 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 101444 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 200SE 45SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 44.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 101446 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...NATE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1015 MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH AS A MIDDLE-LATITUDE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES ...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.6 N... 44.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 101446 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.5N 37.5W 26 1 X X 27 44.0N 28.0W X 2 10 X 12 39.5N 32.5W 2 15 1 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 101450 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005 ...TO CORRECT WIND RADII IN THE NW QUADRANT... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 101451 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-051-053-AMZ158- 250-252-254-256-330-350-352-102100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1016.050910T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM... ** WTPN32 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 25.1N 124.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 124.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.1N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.1N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 123.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 101454 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF NATE. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION. IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS WELL. QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM. A GRADUAL BEND TO A NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.6N 44.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 101500 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.1N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 123.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 101500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 25.1N 124.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 124.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.1N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT31 KNHC 101458 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 80 MPH WINDS IN OPHELIA...NOW A HURRICANE AGAIN... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 25.1N 124.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 124.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.1N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.1N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 33.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 123.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 101512 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED 976 MB AND MEASURED 78 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED EITHER SO THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD. OPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE WINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 31.6N 76.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 70 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101500 UTC 00HR 25.6N 123.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTUS82 KILM 101546 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-111600- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1146 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR 200 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 976 MB OR 28.82 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY. WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... SEAS REPORTED BY BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 20 FT AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SWIMMERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AS WELL AS NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ...RAINFALL... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. STOCK UP ON CANNED FOOD...ESPECIALLY FOOD THAT CAN BE EATEN WITHOUT COOKING OR HEATING. CHECK FOR ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS. HAVE WORKING FLASHLIGHTS OR PORTABLE LANTERNS AND A BATTERY POWERED RADIO. HAVE A SUPPLY OF SPARE BATTERIES. STORE OR SECURE LAWN FURNITURE...BARBECUE GRILLS...GARBAGE CANS AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS USUALLY OCCUR ONCE THE STORM HAS PASSED. ELECTROCUTION BY DOWNED POWER LINES...CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM GENERATOR EXHAUST...AND FIRES STARTED BY UNATTENDED CANDLES ARE THE MOST COMMON DANGERS. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO REMOVE THEIR BOATS FROM THE WATER OR SECURE THEM FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. $$ 03/19 ** WTPQ21 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 25.6N 123.9E GOOD MOVE NW 14KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 250NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 30.2N 120.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 121200UTC 33.7N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 131200UTC 35.4N 122.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 25.6N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 27.9N 122.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 30.2N 120.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KCHS 101609 *** HLSCHS AMZ350-352-SCZ043>045-047>051-102100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1209 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND IMPACT THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CHARLESTON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS WILL GIVE ESTIMATED STORM TIDE READINGS AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 200 AND 300 AM: U.S. HIGHWAY 17 BRIDGE 9 FEET BULLS BAY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE 8.5 FEET CHARLESTON HARBOR 7.5 FEET FRIPP INLET BRIDGE 6.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND THEN IMPACT THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER FROM THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WHERE THE STORM CENTER MOVES ASHORE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF CHARLESTON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...INLAND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OTHER COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST WEEK ALONG THE COAST HAVE CAUSED SOME BEACH EROSION ALREADY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL EROSION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OFFSHORE...THE BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ SCW ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101600 UTC 00HR 25.8N 123.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTUS82 KMHX 101625 CCA *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-102230- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1217 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN FOR THE COAST BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CARTERET AND ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THIS AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT YOU KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE NEAR NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH. ...WIND IMPACTS... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BEGINNING MONDAY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE EROSION...ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING BEACHES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 6 PM EDT TONIGHT. $$ RSB/TK ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101500 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC THREE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (33.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC THREE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (35.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 101725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 14.1N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 14.1N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2005 15.2N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 15.2N 122.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.7N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.1N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 14.0N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 44.6N 37.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 44.6N 37.9W INTENSE 00UTC 11.09.2005 47.7N 35.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 52.9N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 46.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 34.0N 46.6W MODERATE 00UTC 11.09.2005 34.5N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 36.0N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 76.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.3N 76.6W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.9N 76.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.2N 76.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.1N 76.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 76.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.3N 76.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 32.0N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.2N 76.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.1N 76.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 33.9N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.6N 74.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.7N 74.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 35.9N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101725 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101700 UTC 00HR 25.9N 123.7E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 101732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 14.1N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2005 14.1N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2005 15.2N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2005 15.2N 122.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 14.7N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2005 14.1N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 14.0N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 44.6N 37.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 44.6N 37.9W INTENSE 00UTC 11.09.2005 47.7N 35.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 52.9N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 46.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 34.0N 46.6W MODERATE 00UTC 11.09.2005 34.5N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 36.0N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 76.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.3N 76.6W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.9N 76.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.2N 76.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.1N 76.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 76.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.3N 76.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 32.0N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 32.2N 76.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 33.1N 76.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 33.9N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2005 34.6N 74.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.7N 74.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2005 35.9N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101732 ** WTNT31 KNHC 101743 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA STILL DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$