** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 24.2N 125.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 24.2N 125.2E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.2N 121.4E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 31.8N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.2N 119.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 950 HPA AT 24.2N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 26.1N 123.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 28.2N 122.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 32.5N 119.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 35.5N 121.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 24.2N 125.3E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 28.2N 122.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 120600UTC 32.5N 119.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 130600UTC 35.5N 121.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 26.1N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.1N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100700 UTC 00HR 24.4N 125.0E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 (FINAL) AT 0600 10 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI- CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSTIONS AT 101800 TWO SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AT 110600 TWO EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 26.1N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 RRC *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 RRB *** 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.1N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 26.1N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.1N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 32.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100800 UTC 00HR 24.5N 124.9E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 100840 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005 INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 100846 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...NATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1190 MILES...1915 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES ...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 48.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 100846 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 NATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF NATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A NEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION REGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES. LACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE REMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. NATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 090/15. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR THEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY MODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT FROM THE WEST. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 48.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 100848 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA HAS FINALLY EVOLVED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. MARIA MIGHT WEAKEN IN THE SHORT-TERM PRIOR TO STRONG BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS RE-INTENSIFYING THE EXTRATROPICAL MARIA INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES ICELAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 43.6N 38.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 10/1800Z 45.8N 36.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/0600Z 49.7N 34.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/1800Z 54.1N 31.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/0600Z 56.6N 28.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/0600Z 62.1N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/0600Z 65.5N 2.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 100849 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 ...MARIA FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST OR ABOUT 735 MILES...1185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 720 MILES...1155 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES ...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...43.6 N... 38.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 100849 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 38.6W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 38.6W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 45.8N 36.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.7N 34.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.1N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 56.6N 28.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 180SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 62.1N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 65.5N 2.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.6N 38.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 100850 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTPH RPLL 100600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 15 (FINAL) AT 0600 10 SETPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.2N 125.2E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS NORTHEAST SIME-CIRCLE 300 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CNTER 25MPS WITHIN 120KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WTHIN 400KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SIMI-CIRCLE 300KMS RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 300KMS ELSEWHERE FCST POSITIONS AT 101800 26.0N 123.4E AT 110600 28.2N 122.0E WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE. ** WTNT74 KNHC 100851 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 49.7N 34.1W 30 1 X X 31 56.6N 28.8W X 7 5 2 14 54.1N 31.5W 1 15 2 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 100851 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 48.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 100852 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.5N 41.0W 19 1 X X 20 41.5N 31.8W X 3 7 X 10 37.2N 36.5W 3 9 1 X 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 100854 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY... WHILE REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND OPHELIA COULD AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 100854 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.9N 76.7W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 4 5 3 3 15 32.0N 77.3W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 2 3 4 9 32.3N 78.0W 29 1 X 1 31 NORFOLK VA X 1 2 5 8 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 3 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X 1 3 4 8 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 MIAMI FL X X 1 5 6 FT MYERS FL X X 1 5 6 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 5 8 VENICE FL X X 1 5 6 FT PIERCE FL X 1 4 5 10 TAMPA FL X X 2 6 8 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 5 6 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 7 9 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 6 6 13 ST MARKS FL X X 1 6 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 6 6 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5 SAVANNAH GA X 5 6 5 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC 5 8 4 2 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC 12 5 3 1 21 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4 WILMINGTON NC 11 5 2 2 20 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 100908 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 RECON REPORTS THROUGH 06Z LOCATED THE CENTER WITHIN A LONE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A LARGER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS BY DROPSONDE WERE 983-985 MB... BUT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 70 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 56 KT AT THE SURFACE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN TO 3.5. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT. WHILE THIS MAKES OPHELIA A TROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A HURRICANE... THE WEAKENING IS ONLY SLIGHT AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9... BUT THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS DECEPTIVE SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS... OR LESS. AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. PROCEEDS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STOP OPHELIA FROM MOVING OUT TO SEA AND INSTEAD PERHAPS FORCE IT WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO EVOLVE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND IT ALONG WITH THE GFDL BRING OPHELIA TO THE COAST THE FASTEST. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STALL THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE LONGER BUT EVENTUALLY BRING IT TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTHWARD. OPHELIA IS STRUGGLING AGAINST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME VERY DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE MOSTLY BENEATH ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER SINCE CIRRUS IS STILL FANNING OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH OF OPHELIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW ONLY PEAKS AT 68 KT...WHILE GFDL FORECASTS NEAR 85 KT...WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 85 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL GIVEN THE LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER TODAY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 31.2N 76.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100900 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100900 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.8E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.7N 121.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 32.6N 119.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.7N 120.4E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100939 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA SE DEBILITA UN POCO A UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PERO SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A OBTENER INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN...MIENTRAS PERMANECE CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS... LOS INTERESES DESDE EL NORTE DE LA FLORIDA HASTA LAS CAROLINAS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.8 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS...350 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR Y COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KILOMETROS... AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY. DATOS DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO Y AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SIN EMBARGO...SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO Y OPHELIA PODRIA VOLVERSE A CONVERTIR EN UN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...31.2 NORTE...76.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 100941 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005 ...CORRECTED 72 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY TO 85 KT... INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 100942 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 ...CORRECTED 72 HOUR INTENSITY...85 KT...IN TABLE... RECON REPORTS THROUGH 06Z LOCATED THE CENTER WITHIN A LONE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A LARGER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS BY DROPSONDE WERE 983-985 MB... BUT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 70 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 56 KT AT THE SURFACE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN TO 3.5. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT. WHILE THIS MAKES OPHELIA A TROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A HURRICANE... THE WEAKENING IS ONLY SLIGHT AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9... BUT THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS DECEPTIVE SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS... OR LESS. AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. PROCEEDS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STOP OPHELIA FROM MOVING OUT TO SEA AND INSTEAD PERHAPS FORCE IT WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO EVOLVE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND IT ALONG WITH THE GFDL BRING OPHELIA TO THE COAST THE FASTEST. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STALL THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE LONGER BUT EVENTUALLY BRING IT TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTHWARD. OPHELIA IS STRUGGLING AGAINST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME VERY DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE MOSTLY BENEATH ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER SINCE CIRRUS IS STILL FANNING OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH OF OPHELIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW ONLY PEAKS AT 68 KT...WHILE GFDL FORECASTS NEAR 85 KT...WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 85 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL GIVEN THE LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER TODAY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 31.2N 76.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 100900 *** WARNING 100900. WARNING VALID 110900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 945 HPA AT 24.5N 124.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 26.6N 123.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 28.9N 121.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 24.5N 124.9E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 28.9N 121.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 120600UTC 32.5N 119.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 130600UTC 35.5N 121.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 100950 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.1 OESTE O COMO A 975 MILLAS...1570 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1190 MILLAS...1915 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...34.8 NORTE...48.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 100956 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 36 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SABADO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA FINALMENTE SE TORNA EXTRATROPICAL Y SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN UN AMPLIO Y PODEROSO CICLON DE LATITUDES MEDIAS CON VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 43.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.6 OESTE O COMO A 735 MILLAS...1185 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO RACE TERRANOVA Y COMO A 720 MILLAS...1155 KILOMETROS...AL NOROESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO ACELERE HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...43.6 NORTE... 38.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 989 MB. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 100900 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (0515) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (32.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101000 UTC 00HR 24.7N 124.6E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 101100 UTC 00HR 24.9N 124.5E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=