** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 23.2N 126.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 23.2N 126.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 26.6N 122.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 30.4N 119.2E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 33.6N 118.4E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 23.2N 126.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 25.1N 124.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 27.0N 122.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 31.5N 119.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 34.7N 118.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 23.2N 126.3E GOOD MOVE NW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 27.0N 122.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 120000UTC 31.5N 119.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 130000UTC 34.7N 118.9E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100100 UTC 00HR 23.3N 126.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 100000UTC 23.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT NW 14KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110000UTC 26.8N 122.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT 48HR POSITION 120000UTC 30.8N 119.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 130000UTC 34.4N 119.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.9N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.8N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 30.6N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 33.9N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 125.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100200 UTC 00HR 23.5N 125.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT71 KNHC 100232 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.2N 76.7W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC 2 10 4 2 18 31.5N 77.2W 74 X X X 74 MOREHEAD CITY NC 1 8 4 3 16 31.7N 77.9W 52 X X X 52 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 4 4 3 11 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X 1 3 4 8 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 3 4 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X 2 3 5 10 KEY WEST FL X X 1 4 5 MARATHON FL X X 1 5 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 3 5 8 MIAMI FL X X 4 4 8 FT MYERS FL X X 4 5 9 W PALM BEACH FL X 2 5 4 11 VENICE FL X X 3 6 9 FT PIERCE FL X 4 6 4 14 TAMPA FL X X 4 6 10 COCOA BEACH FL X 5 6 4 15 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 7 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 5 6 5 16 ST MARKS FL X X X 6 6 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 6 6 14 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X 2 7 6 15 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 2 6 6 4 18 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC 4 8 4 3 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 100236 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS OPHELIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 100237 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005 INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 100237 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 48.2N 35.5W 27 1 X X 28 55.7N 31.5W X 5 6 2 13 52.0N 33.5W 3 12 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 100238 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 ...MARIA BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST OR ABOUT 715 MILES...1150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES ...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...42.5 N... 39.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT24 KNHC 100238 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 39.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 39.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 40.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 48.2N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 225SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.7N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 275SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 61.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 175NW. 34 KT...360NE 250SE 200SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 66.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 39.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 100239 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 49.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 49.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 38.3N 37.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 42.2N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 125SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 49.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 100239 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH AND MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HR...BUT CONTINUE AND EVEN RE-INTENSIFY AS A BAROCLINIC LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR NEAR OR OVER SCANDINAVIA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/14. MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 42.5N 39.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/0000Z 48.2N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/0000Z 55.7N 31.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/0000Z 61.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/0000Z 66.0N 9.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 100240 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.1N 41.7W 26 1 X X 27 42.2N 33.0W X 4 8 X 12 38.3N 37.1W 2 14 2 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.9N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.8N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 30.6N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 33.9N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 125.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 RRC *** --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 33.9N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 125.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.9N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.8N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 30.6N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTNT35 KNHC 100244 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...NATE ACCELERATING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 890 MILES...1435 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1275 MILES...2050 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES ...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 49.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 100246 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...32 KT AS MEASURED BY UW-CIMSS SATELLITE WINDS...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW BASED ENTIRELY ON CONSTRAINTS AND CURRENTLY VARY FROM 35 KT TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE AND A CIRA/NESDIS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 52 KT. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY OVER SUB 26C SST. THUS NATE SHOULD WEAKEN AT A MODERATE RATE. NATE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS...BUT WILL LACK SUFFICIENT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. NOW THAT NATE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS BEING STEERED A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD OR APPROXIMATELY 085/21. SINCE THE RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE CONVECTION BEGINNING YESTERDAY...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON THIS AND THE ALMOST DUE EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.8N 49.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 36.1N 41.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 38.3N 37.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/0000Z 42.2N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 100309 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THE EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 985 MB... AND THE THAT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 65 KT 25-30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT A COMBINATION OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 055/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE THE SHORT TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 10 KT. THE REASON FOR THE ACCELERATION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT MAY BE RELATED TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR OPHELIA TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 72-96 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE FORECAST THE CURRENT MOTION...AND IF THE MOTION CONTINUES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER ADVISORIES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST OPHELIA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT SHEAR...ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND BROAD STORM STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY SLOW DEVELOPMENT. HOW LONG THE SHEAR WILL LAST IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVOLVE NEAR OPHELIA. AN EXTRA COMPLICATION IS THAT OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C...EXCEPT WHEN IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE SLOW MOTION OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM WATER MAY ALLOW THE STORM TO UPWELL COOLER WATER AND INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF IT STRENGTHENED LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100300 UTC 00HR 23.6N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 100000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0000 10 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON KHANUN 0515 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 101200 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE EAST AT 110000 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 14 AT 0000 10 SETPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.3N 126.3E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 07MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS NORTHEAST SIME-CIRCLE 300 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 38MPS NEAR CNTER 25MPS WITHIN 120KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WTHIN 400KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SIMI-CIRCLE 300KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FCST POSITIONS AT 101200 25.4N 124.1E AT 110000 27.5N 121.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP32 RJTD 100300 *** WARNING 100300. WARNING VALID 110300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 23.6N 125.8E SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 25.4N 124.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 27.4N 122.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 23.6N 125.8E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 27.4N 122.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 120000UTC 31.5N 119.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 130000UTC 34.7N 118.9E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100400 UTC 00HR 23.8N 125.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 100535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 40.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2005 42.2N 40.6W INTENSE 12UTC 10.09.2005 44.6N 37.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 47.7N 33.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.3N 50.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2005 35.3N 50.8W STRONG 12UTC 10.09.2005 35.2N 46.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 36.1N 42.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 40.3N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 42.8N 32.8W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 12UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 77.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2005 30.2N 77.9W STRONG 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.1N 77.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.2N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.0N 76.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.7N 77.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 30.7N 78.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 31.2N 78.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 32.2N 79.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 33.2N 80.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2005 34.5N 80.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 36.2N 79.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100535 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 100500 UTC 00HR 24.0N 125.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=