** WTPQ21 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 22.2N 127.5E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 25.9N 124.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 111800UTC 30.5N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 121800UTC 33.8N 119.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 127.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 25.9N 124.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 30.5N 120.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 33.8N 119.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 22.2N 127.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.3N 122.7E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 28.0N 118.6E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 30.8N 115.6E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 22.2N 127.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.2N 123.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 28.2N 119.2E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 30.8N 116.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT21 KNHC 092025 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005 INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 78.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 78.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 78.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 092025 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW. THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.0N 78.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 092025 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 092025 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.3N 77.5W 38 X X X 38 MOREHEAD CITY NC 1 6 4 3 14 31.5N 77.7W 38 X X X 38 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 2 3 4 9 31.6N 78.0W 40 X X X 40 NORFOLK VA X 1 2 4 7 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 2 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 2 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 3 4 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W X 3 3 4 10 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 5 7 MARATHON FL X X 1 4 5 FT MYERS FL X X 2 6 8 MIAMI FL X X 3 5 8 VENICE FL X X 2 6 8 W PALM BEACH FL X 1 4 5 10 TAMPA FL X X 2 7 9 FT PIERCE FL X 2 5 5 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 7 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 3 5 5 13 ST MARKS FL X X 1 6 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 3 6 5 14 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 7 14 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X 4 6 5 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC 6 5 4 3 18 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC 7 7 3 2 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC 4 8 3 2 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 092025 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE EYE STRUCTURE OF MARIA IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...IT IS ABOUT TIME. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING ON MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MARIA. SOUTHWEST SHEAR MAY ALSO BE INCREASING A BIT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM NATE. ANY SHORT-TERM WEAKENING SHOULD END WHEN MID-LATITUDE ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO MARIA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS GAINING MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CORE AND MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. THERE ARE NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE INITIAL MOTION... ABOUT 045/13. STRONGER DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AFFECTING MARIA SOON AND CAUSE SOME ACCELERATION. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA CAPTURES THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF PREVIOUS... BRINGING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ICELAND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 41.6N 41.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 43.4N 39.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/1800Z 46.7N 37.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 35.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z 54.5N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1800Z 60.5N 27.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1800Z 66.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 092025 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 41.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 41.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.4N 39.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.7N 37.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 50.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 225SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 275SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 60.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 175NW. 34 KT...360NE 250SE 200SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 66.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 092026 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 ...MARIA WEAKENS A LITTLE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...1085 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AND MARIA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES ...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N... 41.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 092027 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 46.7N 37.2W 24 X 1 X 25 54.5N 33.0W X 5 6 2 13 50.5N 35.0W 3 12 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 092027 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 A COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE. ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55 KT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...NATE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS. NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.8N 52.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.3N 48.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 36.0N 44.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 39.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1800Z 50.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 092028 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 52.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 52.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 35.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 36.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 37.5N 39.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 175SE 125SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 50.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 75SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 092029 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...NATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 750 MILES...1210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1410 MILES...2265 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES ...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 52.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 092029 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.0N 44.0W 20 1 X X 21 40.5N 35.5W X 6 6 2 14 37.5N 39.5W 3 12 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 24.2N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.8N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.8N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 24.2N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 RRC *** 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.8N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.8N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 24.2N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.8N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.8N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 33.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 092100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 092100 UTC 00HR 22.6N 127.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 091800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 1800 09 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (KHANUM) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 101800 TWO SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WETHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 091800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 1800 09 SETPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.5N 127.5E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS NORTHEAST SIME-CIRCLE 300 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 38MPS NEAR 25MPS WITHIN 120KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WTHIN 400KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SIMI-CIRCLE 300KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FCST POSITIONS AT 101800 26.0N 124.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP32 RJTD 092100 *** WARNING 092100. WARNING VALID 102100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 22.8N 126.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 24.8N 124.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 26.7N 123.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 22.8N 126.9E GOOD MOVE NW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 26.7N 123.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 111800UTC 30.5N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 121800UTC 33.8N 119.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 092100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 092100 UTC 00HR 22.6N 127.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 25.8N 123.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 29.4N 119.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 32.6N 117.6E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 092200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 092200 UTC 00HR 22.7N 126.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 092300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 092300 UTC 00HR 22.9N 126.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=