** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMLB 091207 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 091600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO CHANGE OFFSHORE WARNINGS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVING VERY LITTLE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING. IF OPHELIA'S RESUMES A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATER THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...SOME OR ALL OF THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DROPPED LATER TODAY...LEAVING A MARINE AND BEACH CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CHECK LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING ANY PERIPHERAL AFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. OPHELIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACH AND BOATING INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE HAZARDOUS EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS TODAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA. THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN AS OPHELIA MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES WILL BATTER THE BEACHES INTO SATURDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. STRONG AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET UNTIL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COMPLETELY EXIT THE MARINE AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS OUT TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS...WHILE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 15 FEET. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS DIMINISHING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA...BUT ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL ONLY BE AROUND ONE INCH...AND MAINLY WITHIN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW AND DIMINISHING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER...SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ CRISTALDI ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 21.3N 128.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.4N 123.4E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.6N 119.3E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 30.2N 115.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 091200 *** WARNING 091200. WARNING VALID 101200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 21.4N 128.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 25.2N 125.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 28.7N 121.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 33.1N 118.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 21.4N 128.5E GOOD MOVE NW 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 25.2N 125.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 111200UTC 28.7N 121.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 121200UTC 33.1N 118.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 23.4N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.0N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.4N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 27.8N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 30.5N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 128.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 091432 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.3N 54.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 091432 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 091433 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...NATE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 975 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES ...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.3 N... 54.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 091434 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.8N 46.2W 19 1 X 1 21 39.1N 37.1W X 7 5 2 14 36.8N 41.5W 3 11 1 1 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 091435 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY 44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB. MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 40.9N 42.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 091436 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 225SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 091437 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT31 KNHC 091437 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S COAST...FOR NOW... AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAVE BENN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 091438 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 091440 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 ...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT 655 MILES...1055 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 860 MILES...1385 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME ACCERLERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES ...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...40.9 N... 42.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 091440 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 45.1N 38.2W 25 X X X 25 52.0N 33.0W X 5 6 3 14 48.5N 35.5W 4 12 1 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 091441 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.6N 78.0W 33 X 1 X 34 CHARLESTON SC 5 4 3 4 16 31.0N 77.4W 18 3 1 2 24 MYRTLE BEACH SC 4 6 3 3 16 30.5N 77.5W 22 2 1 1 26 WILMINGTON NC 1 7 3 4 15 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 4 4 4 12 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 3 5 9 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X 2 4 6 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X 2 5 7 MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 4 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 3 6 10 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 3 4 8 FT MYERS FL X 1 3 6 10 MYGF 266N 787W 3 5 3 4 15 VENICE FL X X 3 6 9 MARATHON FL X X 3 5 8 TAMPA FL X X 4 6 10 MIAMI FL X 2 5 5 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 7 9 W PALM BEACH FL 1 4 5 4 14 ST MARKS FL X X X 6 6 FT PIERCE FL 2 5 5 4 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5 COCOA BEACH FL 2 6 4 4 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL 5 3 4 4 16 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 2 5 5 13 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 SAVANNAH GA 1 3 4 5 13 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 091441 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65 KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST. ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST... THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 29.5N 78.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 091432 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.3N 54.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 091432 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 54.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 091433 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...NATE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 975 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES ...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.3 N... 54.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 091500 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 091600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE DISCONTINUED AS OPHELIA EASES TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY. OPHELIA IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH IS DISCONTINUED. THIS INCLUDES COASTAL LAND AREAS AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 MILES DUE TO THE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY OPHELIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT REFERS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LAND AREAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND A SLOW NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACH AND BOATING ACTIVITIES WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. SEAS AND SURF ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF OPHELIA. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS OPHELIA MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BATTER THE BEACHES INTO SATURDAY. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES...WHICH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM... AND AGAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. STRONG AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS...WHILE SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 12 TO 18 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM OPHELIA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE NO MORE THAN ONE INCH ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. SOME PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ON ROADS...AND IN LOW SPOTS AND OTHER POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED WITHIN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WHICH MOVE ONSHORE AND BRUSH COASTAL AREAS TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED ON OPHELIA...UNLESS THE STORM APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEXT WEEK. COASTAL AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REFER TO THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AS WELL AS STATEMENTS...WARNINGS... AND PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS...CONCERNING LINGERING EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON HAZARDS. $$ CRISTALDI ** WTNT75 KNHC 091434 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.8N 46.2W 19 1 X 1 21 39.1N 37.1W X 7 5 2 14 36.8N 41.5W 3 11 1 1 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 091504 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-092200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1103 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED AS OPHELIA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST... ...ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA OVER THE WEEKEND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 170 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA TAKES THE STORM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL AND THEN BEGIN A MOTION BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS REASON...EVERYONE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH WITH LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS REGARDING OPHELIA. DESPITE THE CURRENT MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST...PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND EXTREME CAUTION IS WARRANTED. WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM THE OUTERMOST BANDS OF OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS TIME... AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA...TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS... ADDITIONAL MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD KEEP VULNERABLE PROPERTY SECURED AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE UNLESS THE THREAT FROM THE STORM REDEVELOPS. INFORMATION ON HIGH SURF AND OTHER COASTAL PROBLEMS WILL BE CONTAINED IN COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS. $$ LETRO ** WTNT44 KNHC 091435 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY 44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB. MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 40.9N 42.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 091200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1200 09 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN)(0515)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTERAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECON WITHIN FOR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH EAST SEMI CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WTHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT24 KNHC 091436 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 375SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 42.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 225SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 091437 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT31 KNHC 091437 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S COAST...FOR NOW... AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAVE BENN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 091438 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005 AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 091437 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 091500 UTC 00HR 21.6N 128.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 091200 CCA *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1200 09 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN)(0515)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH EAST SEMI CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WTHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 21.7N 128.0E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 25.6N 124.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 111200UTC 28.7N 121.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 121200UTC 33.1N 118.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 091500 *** WARNING 091500. WARNING VALID 101500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 21.7N 128.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 25.6N 124.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 091200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1200 09 SEPTEMBER,TYPHOON (KHANUN)(0515) WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 101200 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FCST= ** WTNT80 EGRR 091751 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 43.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2005 40.3N 43.3W STRONG 00UTC 10.09.2005 42.1N 41.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 44.7N 37.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 47.9N 34.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 52.9N 34.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 54.6N 30.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 56.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2005 33.7N 56.9W STRONG 00UTC 10.09.2005 35.2N 51.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 35.6N 46.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 35.5N 43.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 38.0N 38.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 42.2N 34.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 47.1N 29.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 51.9N 24.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2005 29.5N 79.0W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2005 29.8N 78.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 30.7N 78.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.1N 77.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.3N 78.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 31.2N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.9N 80.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 32.0N 80.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 33.0N 79.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 33.9N 79.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2005 34.8N 77.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2005 36.0N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2005 37.1N 72.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091751