** WTUS82 KMLB 090649 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 091000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 245 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA SHOWS SIGNS OF A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD...WITH A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 80 MILES OFFSHORE...ANY MINOR WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE NORTHERLY DRIFT...EVEN TEMPORARILY FOR A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 58 MPH. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF PASSING SQUALLS ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. IMPORTANTLY...KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. ...WIND IMPACTS... OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL... BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL OCCUR...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS LIKELY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS...AND SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET...WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TWENTY TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS... ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE IN SQUALLS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR... BUT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 090630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 09-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP22 RJTD 090600 *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 20.4N 129.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 23.5N 126.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.6N 122.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 31.0N 118.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 20.4N 129.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 23.5N 126.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 110600UTC 26.6N 122.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 120600UTC 31.0N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR THWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC 00HR 20.4N 129.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 125.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 25.4N 121.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 27.9N 116.4E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTNT21 KNHC 090834 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z FRI SEP 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 75SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.9N 78.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.5N 77.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.7N 76.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 090835 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 090835 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.5N 77.9W 33 1 X 1 35 SAVANNAH GA 2 2 2 5 11 31.0N 77.3W 18 4 2 1 25 CHARLESTON SC 5 4 3 3 15 31.0N 76.8W 10 7 3 2 22 MYRTLE BEACH SC 2 7 4 3 16 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X 8 4 4 16 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 3 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 5 5 4 14 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 5 5 11 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X 3 5 8 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 3 4 MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 5 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 3 6 10 KEY WEST FL X X 1 4 5 MYGF 266N 787W 1 6 5 4 16 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 5 7 MARATHON FL X X 2 5 7 FT MYERS FL X X 2 5 7 MIAMI FL X 2 4 5 11 VENICE FL X X 1 5 6 W PALM BEACH FL X 4 5 5 14 TAMPA FL X X 1 5 6 FT PIERCE FL X 6 5 4 15 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 5 5 COCOA BEACH FL 1 5 5 4 15 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 4 3 5 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 1 2 6 10 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.2N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 26.5N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 29.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 129.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 090854 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z FRI SEP 09 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 58.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......240NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 58.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 59.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 35.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 125SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 36.1N 44.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 125SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 37.3N 40.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 45.1N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 120SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 58.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 090856 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...NATE WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 640 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING NATE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.6 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 090856 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.1N 50.2W 20 5 X X 25 37.3N 40.5W X 4 10 2 16 36.1N 44.8W X 17 2 1 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090857 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 ...MARIA WEAKENS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES ...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...40.2 N... 44.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090858 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 44.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT.......225NE 250SE 280SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 44.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 44.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 280SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.6N 39.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 250SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.8N 36.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 50.4N 34.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 150SW 125NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 57.1N 28.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 62.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 64.5N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 090858 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 MARIA CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESILIENT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVE COOLER WATER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL IMPLIES A PRIMARILY WARM CORE STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY...MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TROPICAL IN NATURE THROUGH 12 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THEREAFTER. DURING THE TRANSITION...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. MARIA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 40.2N 44.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 41.2N 42.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 43.6N 39.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/1800Z 46.8N 36.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/0600Z 50.4N 34.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/0600Z 57.1N 28.9W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0600Z 62.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0600Z 64.5N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 090800 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.2N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 090800 RRD *** SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 090800 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 090800 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 26.5N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 29.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 129.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- ** WTPN32 PGTW 090800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.2N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 26.5N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 29.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 129.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTNT74 KNHC 090859 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON SEP 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 43.6N 39.6W 25 X X X 25 50.4N 34.2W X 5 7 2 14 46.8N 36.8W 4 12 2 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 090906 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE 02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 29.3N 79.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 78.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 30.5N 77.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 31.0N 77.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 76.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.7N 76.8W 75 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 30.5N 77.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 090907 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-091500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-091500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTUS82 KJAX 090907 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-091500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 506 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH OR 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THIS DICTATES A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. EVEN IF OPHELIA GETS NO CLOSER TO OUR COAST...PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS UNTIL THE STORM MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 13 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST... MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN FLAGLER COUNTY...WATER IS AT THE TOP OF SEAWALLS IN PALM COAST AND HIGHWAY A1A HAS BEEN REROUTED IN PARTS OF FLAGLER BEACH DUE TO HIGH WATER. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ MKT ** WTPH20 RPMM 090600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 0600 09 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMTAED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSTIONS AT 100600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 110600 TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 120600 TWO SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PGTW 090900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.2N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 26.5N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 29.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 129.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 090900 RRD *** SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 090914 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED. WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY... NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 33.6N 58.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 34.3N 55.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 35.1N 50.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 36.1N 44.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 37.3N 40.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 45.1N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090922 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE COMIENZA A MOVERSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA HASTA LAS CAROLINAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE OPHELIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.1 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS AL ESTE DE DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICAN QUE OPHELIA SE HA DEBILITADO EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SIN EMBARGO...OPHELIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE VOLVERSE A FORTALECER EN UN HURACAN DURANTE EL PROXIMO O LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE NOAA FUE DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE HASTA 1 PULGADA SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS SECTORES COSTEROS DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA. EXISTE UN ALTO RIESGO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS PELIGROSAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO Y HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LAS CAROLINAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...29.3 NORTE...79.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 090929 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.1 OESTE O COMO A 400 MILLAS...640 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH...35 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES HACIENDO DE NATE UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 275 MILLAS...445 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...33.6 NORTE...58.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 985 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090940 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 32 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA SE DEBILITA SOBRE EL NORTE DEL ATLANTICO PERO MANTIENE LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 40.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.1 OESTE O COMO A 635 MILLAS...1025 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO RACE TERRANOVA Y COMO A 930 MILLAS...1495 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 320 MILLAS...520 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...40.2 NORTE... 44.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC 00HR 20.8N 129.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 125.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.2N 120.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 29.8N 116.4E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 090900 *** WARNING 090900. WARNING VALID 100900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 20.9N 129.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 24.3N 125.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 20.9N 129.1E GOOD MOVE NW 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 24.3N 125.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 110600UTC 26.6N 122.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 120600UTC 31.0N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTUS82 KMLB 090957 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 091600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NO LONGER STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY...LEAVING MAINLY A MARINE AND BEACH CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR BREAKING WAVES. ALTHOUGH OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...A HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET...TO ACCOMMODATE THE LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CHECK LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING ANY PERIPHERAL AFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEASTWARD EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACH AND BOATING INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE HAZARDOUS AFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS TODAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA. THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE AS OPHELIA GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES WILL BATTER THE BEACHES INTO SATURDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS LIKELY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COMPLETELY EXIT THE MARINE AREA. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OPEN SEA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH TO ACCOMMODATE THE LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS IN PASSING SQUALLS. WINDS WILL BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS IN PASSING SQUALLS...NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS ARE FORECAST UP TO 9 FEET. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS DIMINISHING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA...BUT ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL ONLY BE AROUND ONE INCH...AND MAINLY WITHIN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW AND DIMINISHING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 11 AT 0600 09 SETPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.5N 129.6E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 38MPS NEAR 25MPS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 300KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FCST POSITIONS AT 100600 23.2N 126.EE AT110600 25.1N 121.4E AND AT 120600 26.5N 127.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTUS82 KMLB 091022 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 091600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NO LONGER STATIONARY... ...NEW INFORMATION... OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY...LEAVING MAINLY A MARINE AND BEACH CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR BREAKING WAVES. ALTHOUGH OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...A HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET...TO ACCOMMODATE THE LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CHECK LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING ANY PERIPHERAL AFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACH AND BOATING INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE HAZARDOUS AFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS TODAY...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA. THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN AS OPHELIA MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES WILL BATTER THE BEACHES INTO SATURDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. STRONG AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET UNTIL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COMPLETELY EXIT THE MARINE AREA. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OPEN SEA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH TO ACCOMMODATE THE LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS IN PASSING SQUALLS. WINDS WILL BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS IN PASSING SQUALLS...NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS ARE FORECAST UP TO 9 FEET. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS DIMINISHING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA...BUT ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL ONLY BE AROUND ONE INCH...AND MAINLY WITHIN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW AND DIMINISHING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER...SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 091146 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING LITTLE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE FEW HOURS BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$