** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090017 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA ESTACIONARIA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.4 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EL RADAR DOPPLER Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...28.6 NORTE...79.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ CASTRO ** WTJP22 RJTD 090000 *** WARNING 090000. WARNING VALID 100000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 19.2N 130.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.5N 126.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 24.3N 121.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 26.4N 117.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 19.2N 130.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 21.5N 126.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 110000UTC 24.3N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 120000UTC 26.4N 117.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 090000 UTC 00HR 19.2N 130.4E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 126.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 24.5N 122.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.7N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTUS82 KMLB 090051 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 090400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 850 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES SPINNING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 70 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT SHOULD BE SECURE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL OCCUR...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS LIKELY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS...AND SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET...WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TWENTY TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE IN SQUALLS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ DECKER ** WTPQ31 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORT HWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT71 KNHC 090232 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.6N 78.5W 60 X X X 60 CHARLESTON SC 1 7 4 3 15 30.2N 77.8W 34 X 1 X 35 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 7 5 3 15 30.6N 77.0W 17 3 2 1 23 WILMINGTON NC X 5 5 4 14 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 2 5 6 13 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 4 6 10 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 4 5 NORFOLK VA X X 2 5 7 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 2 5 8 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W 6 3 2 3 14 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL X 2 1 4 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 3 4 W PALM BEACH FL 6 2 1 3 12 FT MYERS FL X X 1 4 5 FT PIERCE FL 19 1 X 1 21 VENICE FL X X 1 3 4 COCOA BEACH FL 28 X X 1 29 TAMPA FL X 1 X 4 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL 19 1 X 1 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 3 4 JACKSONVILLE FL 2 3 2 3 10 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA 1 4 3 3 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090233 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 090233 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO MEANDER OFF THE FLORIDA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090233 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 090233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 42.3N 42.0W 21 1 X X 22 47.6N 37.5W X 7 4 3 14 44.8N 39.5W 5 9 2 X 16 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 1 2 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090233 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090234 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005 ...MARIA WEAKENS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT STILL HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 970 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1020 MILES...1645 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARIA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES ...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...39.7 N... 45.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090234 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.7N 44.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.3N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.8N 39.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.6N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 275SE 250SW 225NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 60.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 64.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 090234 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE-LIKE HOLE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE. THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER 25C WATER AND MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THERE WAS NO QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS EVENING TO SHOW IF MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE COOLER WATER AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36 HR AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATER...THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. MARIA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR 24 HR...THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 39.7N 45.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 44.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/1200Z 44.8N 39.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/0000Z 47.6N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/0000Z 55.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0000Z 60.0N 29.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0000Z 64.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090233 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 090235 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...NATE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND ACCELERATING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N... 60.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 090236 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE. IN LIGHT OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY... NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.0N 60.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 090237 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.2W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.2W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 60.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 090238 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.3N 52.6W 23 4 X X 27 37.3N 43.5W X 3 8 2 13 36.2N 47.7W X 16 2 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 090244 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-090900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-090900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090248 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA ESTACIONARIA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO AL NORESTE EL VIERNES. EL RADAR DOPPLER Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...28.7 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ CASTRO ** WTCA45 TJSJ 090255 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE ALEJANDOSE DE BERMUDA Y ACELERANDO HACIA EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.2 OESTE O COMO A 270 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA ACELERACION GRADUAL. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...33.0 NORTE...60.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 090300 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-090900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1059 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THIS DICTATES A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. EVEN IF OPHELIA GETS NO CLOSER TO OUR COAST...PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS UNTIL THE STORM MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE OPHELIA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 13 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN FLAGLER COUNTY...WATER IS AT THE TOP OF SEAWALLS IN PALM COAST AND HIGHWAY A1A HAS BEEN REROUTED IN PARTS OF FLAGLER BEACH DUE TO HIGH WATER. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ZAPPE ** WTKO20 RKSL 090000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 090000UTC 19.2N 130.5E MOVEMENT NW 13KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 100000UTC 22.0N 126.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 110000UTC 24.7N 122.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 120000UTC 27.5N 118.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT41 KNHC 090306 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF OPHELIA HAD RISEN TO 990 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHWEST EYEWALL INDICATED 65-70 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND A SHIP JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 60 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D SHOWS THAT SINCE 21Z THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION...BECOMING BROADER AND WITH THE DOPPLER VELOCITIES DECREASING. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING AND HAS JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB. WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CENTER IS JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS IS THE START OF THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. OPHELIA IS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH MOVES TROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE TROUGH GOES BY AND THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE BUILDING RIDGE COULD CAUSE A LOOPING MOTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH 120 HR...OR EVEN MOVE THE STORM BACK TO THE COAST BEFORE 120 HR AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND GFDN. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SLOW LOOP BACK TO THE WEST...AND NOT FOLLOW THE FASTER EXTREMES OF THE GUIDANCE EITHER EAST OR WEST. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE SIDE FAVORING STRENGTHENING...OPHELIA HAS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...IS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM...AND IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR -80C. ON THE SIDE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR SURROUNDING OPHELIA...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOWS 20-30 KT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 250 MB BLOWING RIGHT THROUGH THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW MOTION INTRODUCES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA WILL UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT IF IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STREAM. SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH SHIPS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE STORM AFTER 48 HR. INDEED...MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AT 72 HR...WHICH IS AN ANOTHER COMPLICATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 28.7N 79.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W 80 KT $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 090306 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...NATE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND ACCELERATING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N... 60.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 090307 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE ALEJANDOSE DE BERMUDA Y ACELERANDO HACIA EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.2 OESTE O COMO A 270 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA ACELERACION GRADUAL. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...33.0 NORTE...60.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090307 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA ESTACIONARIA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO AL NORESTE EL VIERNES. EL RADAR DOPPLER Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...28.7 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ CASTRO ** WTPN32 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 130.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 130.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.7N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.2N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.6N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.1N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 129.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 090319 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 090700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1118 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES SPINNING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 70 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT SHOULD BE SECURE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL OCCUR...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS LIKELY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS...AND SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET...WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TWENTY TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS... ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE IN SQUALLS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ DECKER ** WTPN32 PGTW 090200 RRB *** 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 090200 RRD *** ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.1N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 129.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 090200 RRC *** 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.2N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.6N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ** WTPN32 PGTW 090200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 130.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 130.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.7N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 090200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 130.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 130.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.7N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.2N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.6N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.1N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 129.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 090000 *** TTT TYPHOON WRARNING 10 AT 0000 09 SEPTEMBER ,TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100000 TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AT 110000 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO POINT SIX EAST AND AT 120000 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. ** WTPH20 RPMM 090000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0000 09 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON KHANUN 0515 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100000 TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AT 110000 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST AND AT 120000 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WETAHER MANILA= ** WTJP32 RJTD 090300 *** WARNING 090300. WARNING VALID 100300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 955 HPA AT 19.7N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 22.2N 125.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 19.7N 130.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 22.2N 125.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 110000UTC 24.3N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 120000UTC 26.4N 117.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT31 KNHC 090547 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 ...OPHELIA DRIFTS A LITTLE NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN MELBOURNE SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$