** WTNT31 KNHC 081800 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 081821 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 220 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STILL STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS WITH 50 MPH WINDS REMAINING 20 MILES OFFSHORE... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND OPHELIA MAY BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE...FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. MARINE INTERESTS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND OCCASIONAL STRONG SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ SPRATT ** WTUS82 KMLB 081830 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 082200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...RETRANSMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 220 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STILL STATIONARY EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS WITH 50 MPH WINDS REMAINING 20 MILES OFFSHORE... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND OPHELIA MAY BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE...FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. MARINE INTERESTS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND OCCASIONAL STRONG SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ SPRATT ** WTJP22 RJTD 081800 *** WARNING 081800. WARNING VALID 091800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 970 HPA AT 18.2N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.9N 127.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 23.8N 123.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 26.4N 117.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 081800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 081800UTC 18.2N 131.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 091800UTC 20.9N 127.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 101800UTC 23.8N 123.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 111800UTC 26.4N 117.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC 00HR 18.3N 131.2E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 127.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 24.0N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.5N 117.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTNT45 KNHC 082028 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 31.8N 62.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 082029 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z THU SEP 08 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 62.0W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 62.0W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 082029 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 082029 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.0N 55.5W 26 1 X 1 28 37.0N 46.0W X 2 7 2 11 36.0N 51.0W 1 12 1 1 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 131.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 131.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.8N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.3N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.6N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.8N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 25.3N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.8N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 130.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 131.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 131.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.8N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 RRC *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.8N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 25.3N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 RRB *** 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.3N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.6N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 RRD *** OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.8N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 130.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 082100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 131.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 131.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.8N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.3N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.6N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.8N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 25.3N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.8N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 130.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 082044 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC TROUGH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT 045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND. WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 39.5N 46.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 082045 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 80-85 KT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 6500 FEET. USING A STANDARD VERTICAL PROFILE OF WIND SPEED DETERMINED FROM GPS DROPSONDES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES...THIS CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KT FOR THE SURFACE WIND. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB BY DROPSONDE AND THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT VALUE. BASED ON THESE DATA...OPHELIA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT SHIPS DIAGNOSES A RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATE IN THE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE OUTFLOW LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AND ASSUMING THAT SLOW-MOVING OPHELIA IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY COOLER UPWELLED WATERS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. OPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING WESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS...HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE DOING SO. THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP BUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL. SINCE THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE NEED TO SEE WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE WESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION...AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY EXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 28.6N 79.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 29.0N 79.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 29.5N 78.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.7N 77.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 76.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 30.0N 77.0W 80 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 082045 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z THU SEP 08 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 46.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 46.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 275SE 250SW 225NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 082045 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT MOVING... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 082046 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 08 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.0N 79.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 78.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 77.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 082047 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005 ...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.5 N... 46.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 082047 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 42.0N 43.0W 20 1 1 X 22 46.0N 38.5W 1 7 3 3 14 44.0N 40.5W 7 6 2 1 16 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 2 1 2 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 082056 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA AMZ555-575-090300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050908T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W $$ FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT71 KNHC 082100 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.5N 78.7W 99 X X X 99 CHARLESTON SC 1 7 4 3 15 30.0N 78.0W 36 X X X 36 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 7 5 3 15 30.7N 77.2W 16 3 2 2 23 WILMINGTON NC X 4 6 4 14 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 2 5 6 13 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 4 6 10 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 4 5 NORFOLK VA X X 2 5 7 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 2 4 7 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W 6 4 1 3 14 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X X 1 2 3 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL 1 1 2 3 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 4 5 W PALM BEACH FL 7 2 1 2 12 FT MYERS FL X 1 1 3 5 FT PIERCE FL 21 X 1 X 22 VENICE FL X X 1 3 4 COCOA BEACH FL 33 X X X 33 TAMPA FL X 1 1 3 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL 31 1 X X 32 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 X 4 5 JACKSONVILLE FL 2 4 2 3 11 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA 1 4 3 4 12 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 082111 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 090059- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 530 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...OPHELIA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND REMAINS STATIONARY 60 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL... .NEW INFORMATION... OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT...THEN IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS NOT CHANGED...THE STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY LARGER SYSTEM REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER A NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT SHOULD BE SECURE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL OCCUR...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS LIKELY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST. SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS...AND SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET...WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE IN SQUALLS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR... MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ SPRATT ** WTPH20 RPMM 081800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 1800 08 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUM)(0515) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT O91800 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 101800 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 111800 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 082128 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA SE CONVIERTE EN EL SEPTIMO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA...TODAVIA SIN MOVIMIENTO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ES EXTENDIDO AL SUR HASTA SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.5 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EL RADAR DOPPLER Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 985 MB...29.09 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...28.6 NORTE...79.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ CASTRO ** WTPH RPLL 081800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 09 AT 1800 08 SETPTEMBER, TYPHOON (KHANUN) (0515) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091800 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 101800 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 111800 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 082135 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE MOVIENDOSE UN POCO MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL NORESTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.0 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON Y SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA COMO HURACAN HASTA EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MILIBARAS...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...31.8 NORTE...62.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 082100 *** WARNING 082100. WARNING VALID 092100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) 965 HPA AT 18.6N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 21.3N 126.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 082100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 082100UTC 18.6N 130.9E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 092100UTC 21.3N 126.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 101800UTC 23.8N 123.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 111800UTC 26.4N 117.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTUS82 KJAX 082145 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-090400- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 544 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...KATRINA NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THIS DICTATES A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. EVEN IF OPHELIA GETS NO CLOSER TO OUR COAST...PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS UNTIL THE STORM MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE OPHELIA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. FOR THIS REASON...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN FLAGLER COUNTY...WATER IS AT THE TOP OF SEAWALLS IN PALM COAST AND HIGHWAY A1A HAS BEEN REROUTED IN PARTS OF FLAGLER BEACH DUE TO HIGH WATER. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. LETRO $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 082158 CCA *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-090300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 557 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...OPHELIA NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THIS DICTATES A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. EVEN IF OPHELIA GETS NO CLOSER TO OUR COAST...PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS UNTIL THE STORM MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE OPHELIA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. FOR THIS REASON...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN FLAGLER COUNTY...WATER IS AT THE TOP OF SEAWALLS IN PALM COAST AND HIGHWAY A1A HAS BEEN REROUTED IN PARTS OF FLAGLER BEACH DUE TO HIGH WATER. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. LETRO $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 082347 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUES MEANDERING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$