** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 081200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 081200 UTC 00HR 17.4N 131.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 128.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.0N 123.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 25.0N 120.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTUS82 KMLB 081238 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 830 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE WHILE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...OUTER RAINBANDS WITH 50 MPH WINDS ROTATING CLOSE TO THE COAST... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MEANDERING OFFSHORE...BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STATIONARY. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. RESIDENTS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST AND ALSO SPREAD THE WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD. MARINE INTERESTS FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND OCCASIONAL STRONG SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OPHELIA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ SPRATT ** WTJP22 RJTD 081200 *** WARNING 081200. WARNING VALID 091200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 975 HPA AT 17.4N 131.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 20.7N 128.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.7N 123.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.6N 118.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 081200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 081200UTC 17.4N 131.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 091200UTC 20.7N 128.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 101200UTC 23.7N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 111200UTC 26.6N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.2N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.6N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.0N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.4N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 28.1N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 081422 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...NATE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 081423 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z THU SEP 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 081425 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 30.9N 63.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 081425 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 57.0W 27 2 X X 29 36.5N 47.0W X 2 8 3 13 35.0N 52.0W X 14 2 X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 081432 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.0N 79.3W 99 X X X 99 CHARLESTON SC 1 7 5 3 16 29.5N 78.7W 70 X X X 70 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 6 5 14 30.0N 78.0W 17 4 1 2 24 WILMINGTON NC X 1 4 7 12 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 8 10 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 6 7 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 1 4 6 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W 8 3 1 1 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 2 3 MIAMI FL 1 1 1 2 5 FT MYERS FL 1 1 X 2 4 W PALM BEACH FL 9 2 X 2 13 VENICE FL 1 X 1 2 4 FT PIERCE FL 25 X X 1 26 TAMPA FL 4 1 X 2 7 COCOA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 CEDAR KEY FL 2 2 1 2 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL 36 X X 1 37 ST MARKS FL X 1 1 2 4 JACKSONVILLE FL 10 4 2 1 17 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA 2 8 4 2 16 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 081432 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z THU SEP 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 50SE 50SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.7N 79.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 78.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 30.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.2N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 RRB *** 091200Z --- 20.6N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 RRC *** 101200Z --- 23.0N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.2N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.6N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.0N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.4N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 28.1N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 081500 RRD *** VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.4N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 28.1N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 081435 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHEILA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 081435 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS GAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN EXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING RATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE MARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 39.1N 47.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 43.3N 41.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 56.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 61.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 081438 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 08 2005 ...MARIA HANGING ON...REFUSES TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1070 MILES...1725 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1115 MILES...1790 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. MARIA REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...39.1 N... 47.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 081439 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.7N 43.5W 20 1 1 X 22 45.5N 39.0W 1 7 3 3 14 43.3N 41.3W 9 5 1 1 16 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 2 1 2 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 081441 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z THU SEP 08 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 450SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 47.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.2N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.3N 41.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.5N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 225NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 56.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 61.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 081453 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT. THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST. A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST MEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE. THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OPHELIA IS OVER WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 18Z. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY. OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS. THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC- SCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD NEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 28.6N 79.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 28.7N 79.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 29.5N 78.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 78.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 76.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 76.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 30.5N 76.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 081454 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-082100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-082100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTPH RPLL 081200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 08 AT 1200 08 SETPTEMBER, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH- WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091200 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 101200 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 111200 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTUS82 KJAX 081509 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-082300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1109 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SITUATION AS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERS SLOWLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF OPHELIA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF OPHELIA...PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS REASON...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION... STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. LETRO $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 081200 *** T T T STORM WARNING 08 AT 1200 08 SEPTEMBER,SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091200 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 101200 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EAST AT 111200 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EAIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORMS AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS82 KMLB 081534 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1130 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE WHILE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...OUTER RAINBANDS WITH 50 MPH WINDS ROTATING CLOSE TO THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VOLUSIA...BREVARD... SEMINOLE...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MEANDERING OFFSHORE...BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STATIONARY. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. SINCE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS ONLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY AND THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS ARE WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST...ANY WESTWARD DRIFT...EVEN FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS SHOULD BE REPLENISHED. PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE INTO FRIDAY. ANY WESTWARD DRIFT OF OPHELIA WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE COAST AND WILL ALSO SPREAD STRONG WINDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH... WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD. MARINE INTERESTS FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND OCCASIONAL STRONG SQUALLS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OPHELIA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAND TO ORLANDO TO MELBOURNE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON OPHELIA LOCAL INFO. $$ SPRATT ** WTJP32 RJTD 081500 *** WARNING 081500. WARNING VALID 091500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 17.8N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 21.1N 127.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 081500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 081500UTC 17.8N 131.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 091500UTC 21.1N 127.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 101200UTC 23.7N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 111200UTC 26.6N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 081739 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...NATE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 081744 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 79.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2005 28.2N 79.8W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2005 29.0N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 30.2N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 31.2N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 32.2N 76.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 32.2N 74.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 74.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.0N 74.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 30.4N 75.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 30.5N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 30.5N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 31.0N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2005 31.4N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.7N 48.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.7N 48.0W STRONG 00UTC 09.09.2005 40.5N 45.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.7N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 44.7N 42.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 46.9N 40.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 49.8N 36.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 54.0N 34.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 64.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2005 30.4N 64.3W STRONG 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.2N 62.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 33.2N 58.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.6N 53.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 36.3N 48.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 37.1N 44.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 40.3N 39.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 43.7N 34.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 48.7N 29.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081744