** WTNT35 KNHC 080600 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ... 13 KM/HR. AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080607 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA FORTALECIENDOSE A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA DE LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.5 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA PERMANECIDO CASI ESTACIONARIA. LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS ESTAN DEBILES...ASI QUE SON POSIBLES ALGUNOS MOVIMIENTOS ERRATICOS...INCLUYENDO PEQUENAS VUELTAS. SIN EMBARGO... SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL AL NOROESTE O NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMEINTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 55 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. INFORMACION DEL RADAR Y DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO DENTRO DE 25 MILLAS DE CABO CANAVERAL...Y LA BOYA DE NOAA 41009 LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL... REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOTENIDOS DE 36 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS DE 6 PULGADAS SE PUEDEN ESPERAR A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...79.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...CASI ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTIN20 DEMS 080606 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 08-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL,AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTCA45 TJSJ 080616 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN NATE MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE...PASANDO AL SUR DE BERMUDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.8 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...275 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL... CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NATE ESTA REALIZANDO EL MAYOR ACERCAMIENTO A BERMUDA TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...29.8 NORTE...64.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTUS82 KMLB 080631 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081000- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 230 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING AND GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS MEANDERED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO NEAR 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN WORSENING BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREAS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT...WILL BUILD UPWARD TO 15 FEET THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MARINE INTERESTS FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OPHELIA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ROTATE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KJAX 080637 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-080915- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 235 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHWEST OR NORTH DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ARS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 48N 148E MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 986HPA = ** WTJP22 RJTD 080600 *** WARNING 080600. WARNING VALID 090600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 980 HPA AT 16.3N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 20.0N 128.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 22.7N 124.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 25.4N 119.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 16.3N 132.4E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 090600UTC 20.0N 128.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 100600UTC 22.7N 124.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 110600UTC 25.4N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 080600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29 NAME EXTRATROPICAL LOW 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 080600UTC 47.4N 148.1E MOVEMENT ENE 20KT PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 080600 UTC 00HR 16.3N 132.3E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.5N 129.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 22.4N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 24.5N 121.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY T O WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANI ZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.1N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.3N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.3N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.7N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 27.4N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 131.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 080830 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z THU SEP 08 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 64.6W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 64.6W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.9N 60.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N 55.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 50.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 40.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 44.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 48.1N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 64.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 080830 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.9N 60.1W 25 3 X X 28 36.0N 50.6W X 1 12 3 16 34.5N 55.9W 1 15 5 X 21 BERMUDA 24 X X X 24 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 080834 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.4N 79.6W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC X X 2 6 8 29.9N 79.4W 67 X X X 67 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 4 5 30.0N 79.1W 56 X X X 56 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 4 4 FT MYERS FL X 1 X 5 6 MYGF 266N 787W 3 2 1 4 10 VENICE FL X 1 1 5 7 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 2 2 2 4 10 MIAMI FL X X 1 4 5 CEDAR KEY FL 3 3 3 3 12 W PALM BEACH FL 4 1 1 4 10 ST MARKS FL X 3 4 4 11 FT PIERCE FL 19 1 X 1 21 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 2 5 8 COCOA BEACH FL 45 X X X 45 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 5 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL 29 1 X X 30 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 JACKSONVILLE FL 16 3 2 1 22 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA 5 8 3 3 19 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC 1 7 4 4 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 5 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 2 4 5 11 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 080834 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z THU SEP 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 40SE 40SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 79.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.4N 79.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.9N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.2N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 080839 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z THU SEP 08 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 48.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 360SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 48.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.4N 42.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.2N 39.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.1N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.3N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.3N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.7N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 27.4N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 131.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 080900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.1N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.7N 129.1E ** WTNT74 KNHC 080839 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU SEP 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN SEP 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.0N 44.7W 20 1 X 1 22 44.2N 39.9W 1 7 3 3 14 42.4N 42.2W 9 4 1 2 16 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 2 1 2 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 080842 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION... INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080843 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU SEP 08 2005 ...MARIA MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1005 MILES...1620 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1165 MILES...1875 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...38.3 N... 48.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080845 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE EAST SIDE. A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP EDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER. BASED ON THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION STAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.3N 48.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.9W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1800Z 42.4N 42.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0600Z 44.2N 39.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 080847 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...HURRICANE NATE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND LATER TODAY DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON BERMUDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.2 N... 64.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 080854 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT45 KNHC 080854 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW . INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.2N 64.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 32.9N 60.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 55.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 50.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 40.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 28.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 48.1N 18.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080856 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR A MEDIDA QUE PERMANECE ESTACIONARIA AL ESTE DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.5 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA PERMANECIDO CASI ESTACIONARIA POR LAS PASADAS 24 HORAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANEZCAN DEBILES...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE ALGUNA TRAYECTORIA EN LAZO O MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 60 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. INFORMACION DEL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO DENTRO DE 25 MILLAS DE CABO CANAVERAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA GENERADAS POR OPHELIA SEAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LA FLORIDA CENTRAL Y NORTE....EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...79.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT...SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT41 KNHC 080904 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 AIRCRAFT RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 60-64 KT BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...RECON DATA JUST IN INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. IF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...THEN A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND LOWER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT...WHILE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL OPHELIA GO BEFORE IT LOOPS BACK TO THE WEST. THE GFDL IS THE FARTHEST WEST MODEL AND MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN 96 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND TAKES OPHELIA MORE THAN 500 NMI EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS SLOW AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS AND IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH I FEEL HAS A FAST BIAS DUE TO THE MUCH FASTER GFS MODEL. THE GFS PERFORMED SIMILARLY DURING HURRICANE JEANNE LAST YEAR AND HAD SOME VERY LARGE TRACK ERRORS. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS AND UNDER LIGHT OT MODERATE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT ...MORE STRENGTHENING THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD OCCUR SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PRECLUDES INCREASING THE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SHOULD OPHELIA STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 28.7N 79.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 29.0N 79.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 29.4N 79.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 79.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 30.0N 79.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 30.2N 78.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.3N 78.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT61 KNHC 080919 *** TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 518 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 DURING THE PAST HOUR...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES...AND A SURFACE WIND OF 55 KT...OR 65 MPH. WHILE THESE DATA APPEAR TO BE GOOD...THEY ARE NOT BELIEVED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE OPHELIA. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA SUGGEST THAT THIS INFORMATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MOST RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE THE SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NEW FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA OF 62 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORTS THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT...OR 60 MPH. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080929 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO NORTE...PERDIENDO CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.5 OESTE O COMO A 1005 MILLAS...1620 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1165 MILLAS...1875 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...38.3 NORTE... 48.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 080940 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN NATE PASANDO BIEN AL SUR DE BERMUDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. EL AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.6 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL... CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NATE ESTA ACTUALMENTE REALIZANDO EL MAYOR ACERCAMIENTO A BERMUDA...Y SE ALEJARA GRADUALMENTE DE LA ISLA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS MEDIDOS POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 43 MPH FUE REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE EN BERMUDA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMINETO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 982 MILIBARAS...29.00 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...30.2 NORTE...64.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPH20 RPMM 080600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 0600 08 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FEOM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090600 ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST AT 100600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST AND AT 110600 TWO FOUR POINTFIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 080900UTC 16.9N 131.9E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 090900UTC 20.4N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 100600UTC 22.7N 124.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 110600UTC 25.4N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 080900 *** WARNING 080900. WARNING VALID 090900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 980 HPA AT 16.9N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 20.4N 128.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 080600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 0600 08 SETPTEMBER, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MVOER NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090600 ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST AT 100600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST AND AT 110600 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTUS82 KJAX 080959 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-081500- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 558 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OR 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS REASON...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION... STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ARS ** WTUS82 KMLB 081000 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OFFSHORE WHILE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MEANDERING OFFSHORE...BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STATIONARY. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF WIND GUSTS...RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN GOING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. MARINE INTERESTS FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OPHELIA. IMPORTANTLY...OPHELIA IS MEANDERING SOMEWHAT WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INTO FRIDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR WIND. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES COULD ALSO OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KMLB 081001 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OFFSHORE WHILE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MEANDERING OFFSHORE...BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STATIONARY. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING OPHELIA A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. DO NOT LOWER YOUR GUARD. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF WIND GUSTS...RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT ARE LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WHEN GOING ACROSS CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT WITHIN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UPWARD TO 15 FEET NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF OPHELIA. MARINE INTERESTS FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OPHELIA. IMPORTANTLY...OPHELIA IS MEANDERING SOMEWHAT WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA HAS BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INTO FRIDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR WIND. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES COULD ALSO OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTNT35 KNHC 081143 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...BERMUDA ESCAPES FROM THE CORE OF HURRICANE NATE... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 081143 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 081148 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE SE ALEJA DE BERMUDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. EL AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.3 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL... CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NATE SE ALEJARA GRADUALMENTE DE BERMUDA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS MEDIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MILIBARAS...29.00 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...30.5 NORTE...64.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 081155 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT JUEVES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE POCO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. INFORMACION DEL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO DENTRO DE 25 MILLAS DE CABO CANAVERAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MB...29.20 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LA FLORIDA CENTRAL Y NORTE....Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...79.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ VAZQUEZ