** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 080003 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THIS MORNING. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080012 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CASI ESTACIONARIA Y TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA LENTAMENTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DESDE ESTA MANANA. UN DESPLAZAMIENTO AL NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS DE 8 PULGADAS SE PUEDEN ESPERAR A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...28.8 NORTE... 79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC 00HR 15.3N 132.5E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.6N 129.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 21.8N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 24.4N 122.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 080000 *** WARNING 080000. WARNING VALID 090000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 46.0N 145.0E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 34 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 48.6N 151.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 48.7N 160.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 080000UTC 46.0N 145.0E FAIR MOVE NE 34KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 090000UTC 48.7N 160.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 080000 *** WARNING 080000. WARNING VALID 090000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 980 HPA AT 15.3N 132.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 20.1N 129.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 23.5N 124.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.5N 120.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 080000UTC 15.3N 132.5E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 090000UTC 20.1N 129.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 100000UTC 23.5N 124.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 110000UTC 26.5N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 080000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 080000UTC 15.3N 132.5E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 090000UTC 19.9N 129.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 100000UTC 23.5N 125.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 110000UTC 26.8N 121.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT71 KNHC 080231 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.4N 79.7W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC X X 2 6 8 29.8N 79.8W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 4 5 30.3N 79.6W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 4 4 FT MYERS FL X X 1 4 5 MYGF 266N 787W 2 2 1 4 9 VENICE FL X 1 1 4 6 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 1 2 2 4 9 MIAMI FL X X 1 4 5 CEDAR KEY FL 2 4 3 4 13 W PALM BEACH FL 2 1 1 4 8 ST MARKS FL X 4 3 5 12 FT PIERCE FL 23 X X X 23 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 2 5 8 COCOA BEACH FL 60 X X X 60 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 1 5 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL 25 1 X 1 27 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 4 5 JACKSONVILLE FL 18 3 1 1 23 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA 8 7 2 3 20 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC 2 6 4 4 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 5 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 2 4 6 12 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 080232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 080233 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z THU SEP 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.1N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.3N 79.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 080233 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z THU SEP 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 65.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 65.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080233 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 40.2N 45.3W 21 1 X X 22 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 41.7N 43.0W 10 4 2 1 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 2 3 6 43.2N 41.0W 2 8 2 3 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080234 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005 ...MARIA MOVING NORTHESTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 940 MILES...1515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1220 MILES...1965 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...37.5 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 080234 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.9N 62.2W 30 5 X X 35 35.1N 54.0W X X 13 4 17 33.4N 58.8W X 17 7 X 24 BERMUDA 32 X X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 080235 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z THU SEP 08 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 49.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 360SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 49.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.6N 47.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.2N 45.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.2N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 36.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 58.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080235 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS AGAIN DECREASING AS THE HURRICANE INGESTS DEEP-LAYER COOLER AND DRYER AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 2106Z....AND A COMPROMISE OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MARIA IS MOVING 050/12. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHOUT MUCH ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DONE THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND ON THE LEFT SIDE AFTER THAT. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.5N 49.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.6N 47.7W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 45.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 43.2N 41.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 36.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 58.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 080236 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080239 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005 ...CORRECTED HEADLINE... ...MARIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 940 MILES...1515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1220 MILES...1965 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...37.5 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080239 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA PERMANECE CASI ESTACIONARIA CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD.. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DESDE ESTA MANANA. UN DESPLAZAMIENTO AL NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS DE 6 PULGADAS SE PUEDEN ESPERAR A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MB...29.38 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...28.9 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTNT45 KNHC 080241 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.8N 65.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 080243 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 081000- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1042 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN WORSENING BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT...WILL BUILD UPWARD TO 15 FEET THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ROTATE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. SINCE OPHELIA IS FORECASTED TO PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080244 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO...SE ESPERA QUE PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 940 MILLAS...1515 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1220 MILLAS...1965 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...37.5 NORTE... 49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080245 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EXTENSO HURACAN MARIA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL NORTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.4 OESTE O COMO A 875 MILLAS...1410 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1280 MILLAS...2065 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...36.9 NORTE... 50.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 080249 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 080249 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN NATE MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE...PASANDO AL SUR DE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.4 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE O NORTE-NORESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE SE ACERQUE A BERMUDA DURANTE EL DIA EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...29.8 NORTE...65.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080253 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO...SE ESPERA QUE PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 940 MILLAS...1515 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1220 MILLAS...1965 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...37.5 NORTE... 49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 080255 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN NATE MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE...PASANDO AL SUR DE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.4 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE O NORTE-NORESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE SE ACERQUE A BERMUDA DURANTE EL DIA EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...29.8 NORTE...65.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTNT41 KNHC 080258 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OPHELIA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHEARED THIS EVENING...WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM MELBOURNE SHOWS A NEW BURST ABOUT 25-30 N MI WNW OF THE CENTER...AND THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM APPEARS SOMEWHAT DRY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 994 AND 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 54 KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DOPPLER WINDS FROM MELBOURNE...AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS... UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN FORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW TRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INDEED...IF THE STORM GETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFDL BRINGS OPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL AND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR. THIS IS ALSO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SHOULD OPHELIA STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 28.9N 79.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 29.1N 79.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 29.4N 79.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 79.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 30.3N 79.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 79.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080300 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO...SE ESPERA QUE PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 940 MILLAS...1515 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1220 MILLAS...1965 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...37.5 NORTE... 49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 080000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 06 AT 0000 08 SEPTEMBER, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN)(0515) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090000 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 100000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AND AT 110000 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 132.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 132.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.5N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.2N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.5N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.5N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.6N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 132.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ** WTUS82 KJAX 080318 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-080900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1117 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA AND 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ECZ ** WTUS82 KJAX 080318 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-080900- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1118 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA AND 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ECZ ** WTPH RPLL 080000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 06 AT 0000 08 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090000 0NE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 100000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AND AT 110000 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONW TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 132.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 132.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.5N 129.9E ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.2N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.5N 126.0E ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.5N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 RRD *** OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.6N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 132.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 132.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 132.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.5N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.2N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.5N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.5N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.6N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 132.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 47.0N 147.0E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 33 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 48.8N 152.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 48.9N 160.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 47.0N 147.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 33KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 48.9N 160.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 980 HPA AT 15.6N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 20.3N 128.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 15.6N 132.4E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 20.3N 128.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 100000UTC 23.5N 124.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 110000UTC 26.5N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 980 HPA AT 15.6N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 20.3N 128.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 15.6N 132.4E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 20.3N 128.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 100000UTC 23.5N 124.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 110000UTC 26.5N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT31 KNHC 080552 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND NOAA BUOY 41009 LOCATED JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT ...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 080556 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.7N 139.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2005 13.7N 139.5W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2005 14.5N 141.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 15.5N 142.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 15.5N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 15.7N 145.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 15.5N 147.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 15.6N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 16.1N 151.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 15.9N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 16.0N 155.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 16.1N 158.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 16.2N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 14.5N 109.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2005 14.5N 109.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2005 15.4N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 16.2N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 17.0N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 17.2N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 50.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.3N 50.5W STRONG 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.8N 48.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 40.5N 46.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.2N 45.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 43.6N 43.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 47.1N 41.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 50.2N 40.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 52.2N 38.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 65.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2005 29.6N 65.6W MODERATE 12UTC 08.09.2005 30.5N 64.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.9N 62.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 33.6N 58.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.6N 53.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 35.9N 48.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 37.7N 43.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 39.9N 37.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 42.3N 33.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 79.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2005 28.9N 79.4W MODERATE 12UTC 08.09.2005 29.2N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 29.3N 79.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 30.2N 79.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 31.3N 78.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 32.2N 76.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 32.2N 75.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 74.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.6N 73.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 29.8N 74.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 29.0N 75.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 28.8N 76.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2005 28.8N 77.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080556