** WTCA45 TJSJ 071811 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE LENTAMENTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.0 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO PASE CERCA O JUSTO AL SUR DE BERMUDA ESTA NOCHE O EN LA MANANA DEL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MILIBARAS...29.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...29.4 NORTE...66.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...DESPLAZANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA ** WTJP21 RJTD 071800 *** WARNING 071800. WARNING VALID 081800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 44.0N 141.1E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 33 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 47.3N 147.6E WITH 70 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 49.0N 154.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 986 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 071800UTC 44.0N 141.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 33KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 081800UTC 49.0N 154.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 071800 UTC 00HR 14.8N 133.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 210KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.3N 130.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 21.9N 126.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 24.1N 122.8E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 071800 *** WARNING 071800. WARNING VALID 081800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 14.8N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 18.2N 131.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 22.7N 125.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 25.1N 121.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 071800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 071800UTC 14.8N 133.0E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 081800UTC 18.2N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 091800UTC 22.7N 125.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 101800UTC 25.1N 121.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT44 KNHC 072028 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT...THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS EVIDENCED BY A RECENT AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 976 MB FROM CIMSS. THE HURRICANE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING MIGHT BE A BIT SLOWER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARIA SLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS HURRICANE TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER A BRIEF MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... MARIA HAS RESUMED A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 045/12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A BIT SLOWER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 36.9N 50.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.8N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 52.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 58.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 072029 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z WED SEP 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 50.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 125NW. 34 KT.......150NE 175SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 325SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 50.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.9N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.8N 44.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 175NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 58.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 072030 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.9N 79.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 072031 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AT 5 PM EDT 2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 072031 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z WED SEP 07 2005 AT 5 PM EDT 2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 79.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 072031 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.5N 80.0W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 5 6 30.0N 80.2W 58 X X X 58 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 30.3N 80.0W 49 X X X 49 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 1 X 5 6 MYGF 266N 787W 2 X 1 5 8 VENICE FL X 1 1 5 7 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 3 2 2 4 11 MIAMI FL X X X 4 4 CEDAR KEY FL 5 4 3 3 15 W PALM BEACH FL 2 1 1 4 8 ST MARKS FL 1 6 3 4 14 FT PIERCE FL 15 X 1 1 17 APALACHICOLA FL X 2 4 5 11 COCOA BEACH FL 31 X X 1 32 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 3 5 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL 33 X X X 33 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 5 7 JACKSONVILLE FL 23 1 1 1 26 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 SAVANNAH GA 8 7 3 2 20 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 1 8 4 3 16 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 2 4 6 12 GULF 29N 85W X 1 3 5 9 WILMINGTON NC X X 3 5 8 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 4 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005 ...LARGE HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES...1410 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1280 MILES...2065 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MARIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.9 N... 50.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072032 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.4N 46.8W 29 X X X 29 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 1 2 40.8N 44.7W 11 5 2 X 18 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 2 3 6 42.5N 42.5W 1 8 3 3 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 072034 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-080300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ AMZ555-575-080300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-080300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT45 KNHC 072037 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.5N 65.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 072037 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z WED SEP 07 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 66.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 072043 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...NATE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 072043 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 080400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 443 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AT 500 PM. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITHIN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. INTERESTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTH NORTHWEST MOTION THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ROUGH SURF AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN WORSENING BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONGEST NORTH FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BUILD UPWARD TO 15 FEET OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ROTATE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. SINCE OPHELIA IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ SPRATT ** WTCA41 TJSJ 072047 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA HA CAMBIADO POCO EN INTENSIDAD...SE ESPERA QUE SE MANTENGA CASI ESTACIONARIA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS... A LAS 5 PM EDT 2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DE COCOA BEACH HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE COCOA BEACH AL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.4 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 996 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...28.9 NORTE... 79.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...CASI ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...996 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTUS82 KJAX 072052 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-080330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVING VERY SLOWLY OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA AND 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTCA44 TJSJ 072052 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EXTENSO HURACAN MARIA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL NORTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.4 OESTE O COMO A 875 MILLAS...1410 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1280 MILLAS...2065 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE MARIA PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...36.9 NORTE... 50.4 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 072104 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE CERCA DE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.8 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE SE ACERQUE A BERMUDA DURANTE EL DIA EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...29.5 NORTE...65.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.9N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.4N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.2N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 132.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTUS82 KJAX 072108 CCA *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-080330- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 500 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVING VERY SLOWLY OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA AND 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO CLOSE TO THE COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND BE READY TO QUICKLY TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF...BUT VERY NEAR...THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY DEVIATION OF THE STORM TO THE WEST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOOSE OBJECTS AND BOATS ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED IMMEDIATELY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN PORTIONS OF FLAGLER COUNTY. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF HIGH WATER IN THE CANAL SYSTEM IN FLAGLER COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CANALS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD SECURE VULNERABLE PROPERTY AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.9N 130.3E ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.2N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.4N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.0N 126.3E ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 RRD *** --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 132.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.9N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.4N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.2N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 132.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 071800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1800 07 SEPTEMBER, TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081800 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 091800 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 101800 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 071800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1800 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.7N 133.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 20MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081800 17.3N 130.4E AT 091800 19.7N 129.7E AND AT 101800 22.3N 124.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH RPLL 071800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1800 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.7N 133.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 20MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081800 17.3N 130.4E AT 091800 19.7N 129.7E AND AT 101800 22.3N 124.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 072100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 072100UTC 45.3N 142.9E FAIR MOVE NE 34KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 082100UTC 49.0N 155.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 072100 *** WARNING 072100. WARNING VALID 082100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 45.3N 142.9E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 34 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 48.1N 149.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 49.0N 155.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 986 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 072100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 072100UTC 15.3N 132.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 082100UTC 20.2N 129.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 091800UTC 22.7N 125.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 101800UTC 25.1N 121.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 072100 *** WARNING 072100. WARNING VALID 082100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 985 HPA AT 15.3N 132.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 20.2N 129.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 072347 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...NATE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...29.6 N... 65.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 072353 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE MANTENIENDO FUERZA DE HURACAN...MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORESTE CERCA DE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.6 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE SE ACERQUE A BERMUDA DURANTE EL DIA EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE NATE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL NORMAL DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...29.6 NORTE...65.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO