** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC 00HR 14.0N 133.4E 998HPA 20M/S 30KTS 210KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.4N 130.2E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 19.6N 127.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 22.2N 123.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 071200 *** WARNING 071200. WARNING VALID 081200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 41.0N 138.7E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 45.9N 146.2E WITH 70 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 48.5N 153.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 071200UTC 41.0N 138.7E FAIR MOVE NE 30KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 081200UTC 48.5N 153.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTXS21 PGTW 071430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/071421ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061421ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061430). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 070011Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LLCC IS FULLY EX- POSED AND CONVECTION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM POLEWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VER- TICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE PO- TENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTJP22 RJTD 071200 *** WARNING 071200. WARNING VALID 081200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 992 HPA AT 13.7N 133.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.5N 130.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 21.3N 126.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 24.0N 124.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 071200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 071200UTC 13.7N 133.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 081200UTC 17.5N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 091200UTC 21.3N 126.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 101200UTC 24.0N 124.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTXS21 PGTW 071300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/071421ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061421ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061430). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 070011Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LLCC IS FULLY EX- POSED AND CONVECTION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM POLEWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VER- TICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE PO- TENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRD *** ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRD *** ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E ** WTPN32 PGTW 071300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.1N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 071430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...NATE NOW A HURRICANE... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 071431 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z WED SEP 07 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 66.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 071431 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.4N 65.2W 42 X X X 42 33.1N 59.5W X 1 13 3 17 31.6N 63.0W 4 18 2 X 24 BERMUDA 4 17 1 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTXS21 PGTW 071430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/071421ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061421ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061430). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 070011Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LLCC IS FULLY EX- POSED AND CONVECTION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM POLEWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VER- TICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE PO- TENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 071436 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO MEANDER JUST OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 071436 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK OPHELIA LATER THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. SINCE THE GFS BRINGS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OPHELIA BY THE END OR THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OTHER MODELS KEEP OFELIA LOOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE BEST OPTION IN THESE CASES OF LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS TO FORECAST LITTLE MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.8N 79.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 071436 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z WED SEP 07 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 071437 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.5N 80.0W 99 X X X 99 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 29.8N 80.2W 70 X X X 70 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 30.0N 80.3W 58 X X X 58 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 1 1 5 7 MYGF 266N 787W 1 X 2 4 7 VENICE FL 1 1 1 5 8 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 5 2 2 4 13 MIAMI FL X X 1 4 5 CEDAR KEY FL 7 4 2 3 16 W PALM BEACH FL 2 1 1 4 8 ST MARKS FL 1 5 4 4 14 FT PIERCE FL 17 X 1 1 19 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 3 5 11 COCOA BEACH FL 45 X X X 45 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 3 6 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 6 7 JACKSONVILLE FL 19 3 1 1 24 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 SAVANNAH GA 7 8 3 2 20 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC 1 8 5 3 17 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 5 5 13 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X 1 3 6 10 GULF 29N 85W X 2 2 5 9 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 5 7 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 4 5 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071441 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. MARIA IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO 045/14. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 071441 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE ES AHORA UN HURACAN... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BERMUDA EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.2 OESTE O COMO A 230 MILLAS... 370 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA TORNANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE OCURRA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO PASE CERCA O JUSTO AL SUR DE BERMUDA ESTA NOCHE O EN LA MANANA DEL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NATE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...29.2 NORTE...66.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 071442 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z WED SEP 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 125NW. 34 KT.......150NE 175SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 300SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 071442 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED SEP 07 2005 ...MARIA NOW A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...1340 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1320 MILES...2130 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND OTHER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.0 N... 50.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071441 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. MARIA IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO 045/14. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 071443 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.2N 47.4W 30 X X X 30 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 39.8N 45.0W 13 4 1 1 19 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 2 3 6 41.5N 43.0W 2 8 2 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 071445 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC009-127-AMZ550-555-570-575-072100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-072100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTPH20 RPMM 071200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 1200 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 081200 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 091200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 101200 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT45 KNHC 071457 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT. THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER... THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.2N 66.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 071506 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE...SE ESPERA QUE SE MANTEGA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE LENTO MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTINEDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA...Y AL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACAS Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE LAS CAROLINAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...28.8 NORTE... 79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071517 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA AHORA UN HURACAN EXTENSO SOBRE EL NORTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.9 OESTE O COMO A 835 MILLAS...1340 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA O COMO A 1320 MILLAS...2130 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY. IMAGENES DE MICROONDA Y OTRAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE MARIA ES MAS FUERTE DE LO QUE SE ESTIMABA PREVIAMENTE Y AHORA ES UN HURACAN. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ANALISIS DE QUIKSCAT INDICAN QUE MARIA SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UN EXTENSO CICLON. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...36.0 NORTE... 50.9 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH $$ ** WTPH RPLL 071200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 1200 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED ABSED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081200 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 091200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 101200 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTUS82 KMLB 071540 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 072200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1130 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A PORTION OF THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT DESCRIBES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...BREVARD...AND INDIAN RIVER. INTERESTS WITHIN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA... ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING OPHELIA SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET AT MID DAY...WILL BUILD UPWARD TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ROTATE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WHERE A MODERATE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL. MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH 6 TO 8 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA... SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. SINCE OPHELIA IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A STORM SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH SEAS AND ROUGH SURF WILL BATTER THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN WORSENING BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES...WHERE THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND POUNDING SURF WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THESE HURRICANE THREATS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB-PAGE AT... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ SPRATT ** WTJP31 RJTD 071500 *** WARNING 071500. WARNING VALID 081500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 42.6N 140.0E HOKKAIDO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 33 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 46.7N 146.5E WITH 70 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 49.0N 152.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 071500UTC 42.6N 140.0E FAIR MOVE NNE 33KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM FORECAST 24HF 081500UTC 49.0N 152.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KJAX 071555 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-072200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1200 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS AROUND 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE MOTION AND INTENSITY OF OPHELIA AND THEREFORE ALSO THE SPECIFIC EFFECTS OF THE STORM...THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM SO NEAR OUR COAST MEANS YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM CLOSELY AND BE READY TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS QUICKLY IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY KEEPS THE STORM OFF THE COAST PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE COAST POSSIBLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO SECURE OR REMOVE LOOSE OBJECTS ALONG THE AREA BEACHES. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET HAVE BEEN RECORDED ALREADY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL INLETS WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS CROSSING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED CREATE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWER BANDS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. LETRO/SANDRIK $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 071500 *** WARNING 071500. WARNING VALID 081500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 992 HPA AT 13.9N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 17.9N 130.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 071500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 071500UTC 13.9N 133.0E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 081500UTC 17.9N 130.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 091200UTC 21.3N 126.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 101200UTC 24.0N 124.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT31 KNHC 071738 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HAS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LASTER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 071743 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...NATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SLOW NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...29.94 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 071748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.9N 138.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2005 12.9N 138.1W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2005 13.7N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 13.7N 141.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 14.6N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 14.8N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 15.3N 145.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 15.5N 147.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 15.6N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 15.6N 151.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 15.7N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 16.1N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2005 16.0N 158.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.5N 52.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2005 35.5N 52.0W STRONG 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.7N 49.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.7N 47.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 40.4N 44.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 41.4N 43.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 42.3N 40.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 45.5N 38.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 48.7N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 51.1N 34.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.7N 66.0W MODERATE 00UTC 08.09.2005 29.3N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 29.6N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 30.6N 63.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 32.2N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 33.9N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 35.0N 52.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 36.7N 47.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 39.1N 41.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 42.4N 35.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 46.8N 30.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 50.2N 27.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 79.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.8N 79.3W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2005 29.1N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 29.2N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 29.3N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 30.2N 79.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 30.8N 78.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.6N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 75.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.0N 74.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.2N 75.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 29.1N 76.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 29.2N 77.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2005 29.3N 77.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071748 ** WTCA41 TJSJ 071756 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA CASI ESTACIONARIA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA FUE LOCALIZADO POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.4 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL NOROESTE TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACAS Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DESDE LAS CAROLINAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...28.8 NORTE... 79.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...CASI ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA