** WTCA41 TJSJ 070619 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA SE FORTALECE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE LEJOS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO LA ISLA MERRIT...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...LAS ABACOS Y BIMINI. EL AVISO PARA LAS BAHAMAS PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA LA PLAYA FLAGLER. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL ATREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y DE LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.8 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS... 160 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO...LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA...Y LAS BOYAS CERCANAS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...UNA BOYA JUSTO AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 38 MPH...Y LA BOYA DE NOAA 41010 MUY AL NORTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 33 MPH. SE DEBE TOMAR EN CUENTA QUE LOS VIENTOS FUERTES CASI DE FUERZA DE GALERNA LEJOS DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ACTUALMENTE SE DEBEN MAS A UNA ALTA PRESION FUERTE SOBRE EL ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN VEZ DE A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...27.9 NORTE... 78.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 070619 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA SE FORTALECE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE LEJOS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO LA ISLA MERRIT...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...LAS ABACOS Y BIMINI. EL AVISO PARA LAS BAHAMAS PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA LA PLAYA FLAGLER. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL ATREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y DE LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.8 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS... 160 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO...LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA...Y LAS BOYAS CERCANAS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...UNA BOYA JUSTO AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 38 MPH...Y LA BOYA DE NOAA 41010 MUY AL NORTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 33 MPH. SE DEBE TOMAR EN CUENTA QUE LOS VIENTOS FUERTES CASI DE FUERZA DE GALERNA LEJOS DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ACTUALMENTE SE DEBEN MAS A UNA ALTA PRESION FUERTE SOBRE EL ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN VEZ DE A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...27.9 NORTE... 78.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 38.8N 135.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 42.8N 140.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 46.2N 147.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 47.5N 160.8E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 972 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 38.8N 135.2E FAIR MOVE NE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 46.2N 147.0E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 30KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 090600UTC 47.5N 160.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMLB 070650 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 071000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 250 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE PREVIOUS DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED TO THE LATEST FORECAST...AS WELL AS INSTRUCTIONS FROM PUBLIC OFFICIALS...SMARTLY MAKING THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR DAY ACCORDINGLY. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN SQUALLS...ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 8 TO 10 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES...MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO START ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. CURRENTLY...THEIR ARE NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FOR THE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR TWO DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR... IT WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 13.4N 133.8E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 131.6E 992HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.6N 128.4E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 20.7N 124.4E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 38.8N 135.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 45.0N 144.4E 985HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) 998 HPA AT 13.5N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 16.5N 131.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 20.4N 127.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 24.1N 124.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 13.5N 133.5E POOR MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 16.5N 131.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 090600UTC 20.4N 127.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 100600UTC 24.1N 124.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28 NAME STS 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 070600UTC 39.0N 136.1E MOVEMENT NE 20KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 071800UTC 42.8N 140.9E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 24HR POSITION 080600UTC 46.2N 147.3E WITHIN 110NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.6N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.0N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 070800 RRB *** 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070800 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.6N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070800 RRC *** 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070800 RRD *** 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.0N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 070800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.6N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.0N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 070828 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z WED SEP 07 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 66.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 070829 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.1N 66.2W 61 X X X 61 33.0N 61.5W X 2 14 2 18 31.6N 64.7W 9 18 1 X 28 BERMUDA 2 19 3 1 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 070838 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070839 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z WED SEP 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 53.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 53.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 51.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 38.6N 47.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.4N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N 39.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 55.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 53.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070841 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.2N 49.7W 25 1 X X 26 40.4N 45.0W 1 9 2 3 15 38.6N 47.3W 12 4 1 1 18 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 3 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070842 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED SEP 07 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...1135 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...35.2 N... 53.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 070844 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z WED SEP 07 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.4N 80.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 070845 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.8N 79.8W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 29.0N 80.1W 65 X X X 65 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 29.4N 80.3W 48 X 1 X 49 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 4 6 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 1 2 2 4 9 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 3 4 VENICE FL 1 3 2 4 10 MYGF 266N 787W 9 1 1 2 13 TAMPA FL 5 5 2 3 15 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL 6 6 3 2 17 MIAMI FL 1 X 1 5 7 ST MARKS FL 1 6 4 4 15 W PALM BEACH FL 11 1 1 2 15 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 4 4 12 FT PIERCE FL 34 X X X 34 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 4 5 11 COCOA BEACH FL 41 X X X 41 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 6 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL 29 1 X 1 31 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 JACKSONVILLE FL 15 4 2 2 23 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA 2 7 4 4 17 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X 3 5 5 13 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 3 6 9 GULF 29N 85W X 3 3 5 11 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 5 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070846 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AND BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTING FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 06/2124Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/9. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.2N 53.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 51.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.2N 49.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.6N 47.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 40.4N 45.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 39.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 55.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 070847 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL SERVICIO N ACIONAL DE METEORLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMNET TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTREO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.5 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS... 415 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA TORNANDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HORA. SE ESPERA QUE OCURRA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE O NOR-NORESTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O EL JUEVES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE NATE PASE CERCA DE O JUSTO AL SUR DE BERMUDA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE O LE VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y NATE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...28.8 NORTE...66.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NOROESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 070851 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FLC127-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050907T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-555-570-575-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC061-085-111-071500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-AMZ452-454-472-474-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050907T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W $$ FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-071500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ** WTNT31 KNHC 070852 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 165 KM... EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS ...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.3 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 070908 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 DATA FROM NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED... BUT IT STILL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE REPORTS OF 33 KT FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41542...LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 36-44 KT BETWEEN 10000 FT AND 12000 FT. THE HIGHEST RECON WIND REPORT HAS BEEN 42 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/07...BASED ON THE LAST 3 RECON POSITIONS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD...AND MAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP EAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY 5. ONLY THE GFDL...SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE OPHELIA WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THEY DO SO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND ALSO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THOSE MODEL FORECASTS...AND THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE GULF COAST RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH...SUGGESTS THAT THE GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PUSH OPHELIA EASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA BY 36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS...POSSIBLE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. OPHELIAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A NARROW 200 MB RIDGE AXIZ WHILE REMAINING OVER 29C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.3N 78.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 79.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 79.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 29.0N 80.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 29.4N 80.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 29.8N 80.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 30.1N 80.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 79.5W 70 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070914 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE A MEDIAD QUE SE MUEVE AL NORESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.0 OESTE O COMO A 705 MILLAS...1135 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS... 260 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...35.2 NORTE... 53.0 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 070916 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE ...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.8N 66.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W 80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 48HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 070919 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 CORRECTED INTENSITY TABLE MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE ...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.8N 66.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W 80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 48HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 070921 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z WED SEP 07 2005 CORRECTED INTENSITY FORECASTS AFTER 36 HOURS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 66.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 070928 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE PARALELO A LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... ...AVISOS NUEVOS Y VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE LA ENSENADA DE SEBASTIAN AL NORTE HASTA LA PLAYA FLAGLER. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A ALAS 5 AM EDT...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUR DE LA ENSENADA DE SEBASTIAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. ADEMAS...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LAS BAHAMAS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESD EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL ATREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y DE LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.9 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO...LOS RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA...Y LAS BOYAS CERCANAS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTINEDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS EN PARTES DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA Y AL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES MARITIMAS PELIGROSAS Y CORRIENTES FUERTES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNOIDOS DESDE LAS CAROLINAS AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...28.3 NORTE... 78.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT...SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 070949 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-071500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 548 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES. INLAND COUNTIES INCLUDING PUTNAM AND CLAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET HAVE BEEN RECORDED ALREADY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND HAS HELPED CREATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. WINDS AT THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS ALONG THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED AND THUS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. DUE TO VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST... MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACT AREAS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF MAYPORT TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 40.0N 137.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 44.3N 143.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 47.5N 149.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 40.0N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NE 26KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 47.5N 149.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 090600UTC 47.5N 160.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMLB 070955 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 071600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS WHILE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGLER BEACH. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE COUNTIES OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED TO THE LATEST FORECAST...SMARTLY MAKING THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR DAILY AND WEEKLY PLANS. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. INITIAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS...RECALLING THAT IT REMAINS PEAK HURRICANE SEASON. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN SQUALLS...ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OPHELIA SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM OPHELIA CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL LIKELY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM COCOA BEACH TO ORLANDO. ISOLATED EVENT TOTALS COULD REACH 6 TO 8 INCHES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT FOR FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN URBAN LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITHIN PASSING SQUALLS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTLINE EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL... AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO VOLUSIA NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND DAYTONA BEACH. SINCE OPHELIA IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM...BUT SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH OPHELIA SINCE ITS RIGHT SIDE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT BEACHES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR TWO DAYS OR MORE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO...MAINLY WITHIN THE COASTAL ZONE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 13.5N 133.3E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 17.4N 130.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 090600UTC 20.4N 127.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 100600UTC 24.1N 124.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 070600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 0600 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) {0515} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 090600 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AND AT 100600 TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 070600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 0600 07 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) WAS ESTIMATED ABSED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 090600 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AND AT 100600 TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 RRD *** 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.0N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 RRC *** 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 RRB *** 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.6N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.6N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.9N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.0N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 071144 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO THENORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 071154 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA POCO MAS FUERTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE LA ENSENADA DE SEBASTIAN AL NORTE HASTA LA PLAYA FLAGLER. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL ATREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.2 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTINEDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS PRINICPALMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS EN PARTES DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA Y AL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES MARITIMAS PELIGROSAS Y CORRIENTES FUERTES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNOIDOS DESDE LAS CAROLINAS AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...28.5 NORTE... 79.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 071158 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...NATE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$