** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 37.8N 134.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 44.2N 143.7E 985HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 980 HPA AT 37.8N 134.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 41.3N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 45.5N 145.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 48.9N 161.2E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 37.8N 134.5E FAIR MOVE NE 26KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 45.5N 145.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 30KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 090000UTC 48.9N 161.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14.0N 134.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 17.4N 130.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 20.1N 128.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 23.2N 125.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 14.0N 134.4E POOR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 17.4N 130.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 090000UTC 20.1N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 100000UTC 23.2N 125.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27 NAME STS 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 37.8N 134.1E MOVEMENT NE 27KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 071200UTC 41.8N 139.1E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 24HR POSITION 080000UTC 45.6N 144.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 36HR POSITION 081200UTC 48.2N 152.6E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 090000UTC 49.6N 161.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0515 KHANUN ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 14.0N 134.4E MOVEMENT NNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080000UTC 16.9N 130.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 090000UTC 19.6N 128.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 100000UTC 22.9N 125.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KHANUN 0515 (0515) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 14.0N 134.3E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.1N 131.7E 992HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.5N 128.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 20.9N 125.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 134.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 134.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.7N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 22.7N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 134.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// ** WTNT71 KNHC 070231 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.1N 79.3W 76 X X X 76 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 3 3 28.5N 79.7W 52 X X X 52 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 28.8N 80.0W 41 X X X 41 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 1 2 4 8 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 1 3 3 4 11 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL 1 4 2 4 11 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 TAMPA FL 3 6 3 3 15 MYNN 251N 775W 1 1 X 4 6 CEDAR KEY FL 2 8 4 3 17 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL X 4 6 4 14 MARATHON FL X X 1 3 4 APALACHICOLA FL X 2 4 6 12 MIAMI FL 3 2 1 4 10 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 4 6 11 W PALM BEACH FL 19 1 X 1 21 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 5 7 FT PIERCE FL 29 X 1 X 30 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 COCOA BEACH FL 30 X 1 X 31 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL 21 2 1 1 25 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL 6 8 3 3 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 5 5 5 15 GULF 29N 85W X 2 3 6 11 CHARLESTON SC X 1 4 6 11 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 070231 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 070232 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z WED SEP 07 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 78.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 78.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.7N 78.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 79.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.8N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 78.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 070232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070232 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.1N 51.0W 22 1 X X 23 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 2 3 38.5N 48.9W 9 5 2 1 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 2 4 6 40.1N 46.5W 1 8 3 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 070234 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z WED SEP 07 2005 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 66.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.6N 66.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 38.5N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 44.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070235 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 ...MARIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1020 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.7 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070237 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z WED SEP 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 54.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 54.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 54.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.5N 48.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.1N 46.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 53.5N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 070239 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...NATE STRENGTHENING...MEANDERING SOUTH OF BERMUDA... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 070244 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.6N 66.7W 99 X X X 99 31.8N 64.0W 1 8 8 2 19 30.5N 66.0W 41 X X X 41 BERMUDA 1 8 7 2 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 070251 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...CORRECTED MOTION FORECAST... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 134.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 134.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.7N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 134.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 134.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.7N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 22.7N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 134.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM/NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 RRB *** 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 RRC *** 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 22.7N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 134.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM/NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 070258 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS SITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT. BASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 28.8N 66.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.6N 66.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 66.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 31.8N 64.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 57.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 46.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 070305 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 DATA FROM THE WSR-88D AT MELBOURNE SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THE EARLIER NOAA AIRCRAFT FLIGHT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 27 KT MORE THAN 60 N MI AWAY FROM THE BROAD CENTER. BASED ON A 27 KT WIND FROM BUOY 41010 AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE LAST 30 MIN OR SO...THE MELBOURNE RADAR HINTS THAT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE MAY BE FORMING. THE NEXT NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CYCLONE AT ABOUT 06Z TO SEE IF THAT IS THE CASE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/3...WITH THE RADAR DATA HINTING AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN THERE IS SERIOUS DIVERGENCE. THE GFDL...GFDN...ECMWF...AND BAMS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND BAMD TURN IT NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE CYCLONE BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENT TRACKS RESULT MAINLY FROM WHICH SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME WHICH CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE WILL BE CORRECT. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH IS PROBABLY SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY LET UP IN 12-24 HR AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE BAMS AND BAMD SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND FAR ABOVE THE GFDL FORECAST. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 27.4N 78.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.7N 78.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 28.1N 79.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 79.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 28.8N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 070311 *** TCVAT1 SIXTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-070900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC127-070900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050907T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ ATTN...WFO...MLB... ** WTNT44 KNHC 070317 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING PRIMARY CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...AND BASED ON THE WEAKER SATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE 00Z THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH AT LEAST 120 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/7. MARIA IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 34.7N 54.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 35.7N 52.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 37.1N 51.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 38.5N 48.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 40.1N 46.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 53.5N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 070325 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KHANUN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KHANUN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP...AND 715 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM KHANUN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM KHANUN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...13.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 134.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE ON TROPICAL STORM KHANUN. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH20 RPMM 070000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 02 AT 0000 07 SEPTEMBER, TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 090000 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 100000 ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORHT ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 070327 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE SE DESPLAZA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE...SE EMITE UNA NUEVA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO LA ISLA MERRIT...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...LAS ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A ALS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE TITUSVILLE HASTA FLAGER BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.5 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS... 105 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 145 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH... 6 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN DESPLAZAMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES. SE DEBE TOMAR EN CUENTA QUE LOS VIENTOS FUERTES A LO LARGO DE PARTES DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ACTUALMENTE SE DEBEN MAS A UNA ALTA PRESION FUERTE SOBRE EL ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN VEZ DE A LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...27.4 NORTE... 78.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070333 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA SE DEBILITA A UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.2 OESTE O COMO A 635 MILLAS...1020 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...34.7 NORTE... 54.2 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 070337 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE SE FORTALECE...VAGANDO AL SUR DE BERMUDA... LOS INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE NATE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTREO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.3 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS... 415 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE ESTA ESTACIONARIA. ES POSIBLE UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y NATE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...28.8 NORTE...66.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 070300 *** WARNING 070300. WARNING VALID 080300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) 985 HPA AT 37.9N 135.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 55 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 41.6N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 46.0N 145.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 37.9N 135.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 65NM SOUTHEAST 55NM NORTHWEST 30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 46.0N 145.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 32KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 090000UTC 48.9N 161.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPH RPLL 070000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 0000 07 SEPTEMBER, TROPICAL STORM (KHANUN) (0515) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.4N 134.3E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGHY TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 15.2N 131.5E AT 090000 16.9N 128.7E AND AT 100000 18.5N 125.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTUS82 KMLB 070355 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 071000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1155 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THE DEVELOPMENT PHASE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. A VERY SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. IF IT DOES...THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AND MAKE THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR DAY ACCORDINGLY. REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS...SHOULD THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 8 TO 10 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES...MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO START ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SQUALLS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. CURRENTLY... THEIR ARE NO INLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FOR THE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR TWO DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0515 KHANUN (0515) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 14.0N 134.0E POOR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 17.6N 130.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 090000UTC 20.1N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 100000UTC 23.2N 125.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 070550 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.2N 136.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2005 12.2N 136.0W WEAK 12UTC 07.09.2005 12.9N 138.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 13.7N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 14.2N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 14.4N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 15.6N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 16.2N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 54.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2005 34.6N 54.4W STRONG 12UTC 07.09.2005 36.0N 52.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.1N 50.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.7N 47.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 40.3N 45.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 41.4N 44.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 44.6N 41.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 66.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2005 28.7N 66.8W MODERATE 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.6N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 28.9N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 30.2N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.0N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 32.2N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.7N 56.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 36.2N 52.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 37.8N 47.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 40.5N 41.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 42.9N 35.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 78.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2005 27.8N 78.3W WEAK 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.7N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 28.8N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 29.3N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 29.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 29.7N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 30.3N 79.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.0N 78.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.2N 77.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 75.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.5N 76.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2005 30.5N 78.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2005 30.7N 79.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070550 ** WTNT31 KNHC 070559 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. THE WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS ...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A DRIFTING BUOY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 070602 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 07-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST OF BENGAL,AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)