** WTJP21 RJTD 061800 *** WARNING 061800. WARNING VALID 071800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 970 HPA AT 36.0N 132.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.3N 135.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 42.9N 140.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 48.0N 154.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 972 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 061800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 061800UTC 36.0N 132.0E FAIR MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071800UTC 42.9N 140.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 26KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 081800UTC 48.0N 154.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 061800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 061800 UTC 00HR 36.0N 131.9E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 42.5N 140.8E 985HPA 23M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 061800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 061800UTC 36.0N 132.0E MOVEMENT NNE 16KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070600UTC 39.5N 134.9E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 24HR POSITION 071800UTC 43.6N 139.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 36HR POSITION 080600UTC 47.2N 146.6E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 081800UTC 49.3N 155.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 061800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 061800UTC 12.2N 135.0E POOR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 071800UTC 13.5N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 061300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 034 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 34.6N 131.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 131.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 37.8N 133.7E ** WTPN31 PGTW 061300 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 41.4N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 45.0N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 132.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 061400 RRC *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.8N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 134.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 061400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 135.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 135.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.4N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.6N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.0N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.8N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 134.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 062027 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AND THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT WHICH IS BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION... ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS...AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST...SO FURTHER WEAKENING...AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS LIKELY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS HOWEVER...NWP MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... INDICATING THAT MARIA WILL SOON BEGIN TO TAP ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AT 55 KT TO REFLECT THE TRANSITION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 045/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS MARIA MOVES INTO A STRONGER STEERING FLOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS METHOD...CONU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 34.3N 55.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 35.1N 53.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 37.8N 50.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 39.3N 48.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 42.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 37.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 51.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 062027 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z TUE SEP 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.1N 53.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 51.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 55.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 062028 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 ...MARIA SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES... 930 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 55.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 062028 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.5N 52.0W 28 1 X X 29 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 37.8N 50.1W 13 7 1 1 22 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 4 5 39.3N 48.0W 2 12 3 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 062029 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED DIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO THE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODELS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 28.8N 67.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 67.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 29.7N 67.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 66.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 52.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 062029 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z TUE SEP 06 2005 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.8N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 062030 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 062030 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.2N 67.4W 99 X X X 99 31.0N 66.5W 16 3 2 1 22 29.7N 67.5W 54 X X X 54 BERMUDA X 2 8 5 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 062032 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 062032 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z TUE SEP 06 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 78.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 062032 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.7N 79.2W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 28.1N 79.6W 49 X X X 49 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4 28.7N 80.2W 31 X 1 X 32 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 2 2 4 9 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 2 3 3 3 11 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL 1 4 3 4 12 MYAK 241N 776W X 1 X 3 4 TAMPA FL 3 6 3 3 15 MYNN 251N 775W 3 2 1 3 9 CEDAR KEY FL 2 7 4 3 16 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL X 4 5 5 14 MARATHON FL X X 1 4 5 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 6 12 MIAMI FL 8 2 1 2 13 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 3 7 11 W PALM BEACH FL 28 1 X X 29 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 6 7 FT PIERCE FL 32 1 X X 33 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 COCOA BEACH FL 28 1 X X 29 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL 17 4 1 1 23 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 JACKSONVILLE FL 4 9 4 2 19 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 4 6 4 14 GULF 29N 85W X 1 4 6 11 CHARLESTON SC X 1 4 5 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 062032 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 26.7N 78.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 062106 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA DEBILITANDOSE LENTAMENTE MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.1 OESTE O COMO A 575 MILLAS...930 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE DEBILITANDOSE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...34.3 NORTE... 55.1 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 062113 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE CASI ESTACIONARIO...SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA... LOS INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE NATE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.7 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS... 440 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE ESTA ESTACIONARIA. ES POSIBLE UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y NATE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...28.7 NORTE...66.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 062127 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA...SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO MERRIT ISLAND...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.5 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA PERO UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DEBE COMENZAR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...26.7 NORTE...78.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 062132 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA...SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO MERRIT ISLAND...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.5 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA PERO UN DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE DEBE COMENZAR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...26.7 NORTE...78.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 062146 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 070400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 545 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THE DEVELOPMENT PHASE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION WAS NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE FELT INITIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITH THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY SO THERE IS TIME TO MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HOWEVER...REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS...SHOULD THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST. THE BEST THING THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PREPARE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL STORM AND REMAIN DILIGENT IN KEEPING INFORMED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND WORK NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS AND WILL BUILD TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES...MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW MOVING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO START ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR 2 DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ RL ** WTJP31 RJTD 062100 *** WARNING 062100. WARNING VALID 072100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0514 NABI (0514) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 36.8N 132.9E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 21 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 40.1N 136.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 44.2N 141.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 062100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 062100UTC 36.8N 132.9E FAIR MOVE NE 21KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 75NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 072100UTC 44.2N 141.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 081800UTC 48.0N 154.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 062157 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 15W STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 15W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 340 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 345 MILES NORTH OF KAYANGEL 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 455 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 675 MILES WEST OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM 15W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...13.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 134.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ PRIOR ** WTPN31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 36.4N 132.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 132.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.0N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 43.7N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NONAME) WARN- INGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.0N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.0N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.0N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.0N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.7N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.6N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 134.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARNING POSITION IS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS AS INDICATED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 061800 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 1800 06 SEPTEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 071800 ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ONE EAST AT 081800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 091800 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DERESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PGTW 062100 RRB *** PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NONAME) WARN- INGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 062100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 36.4N 132.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 132.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.0N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 43.7N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE ** WTPN32 PGTW 062100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.0N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.0N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 062100 RRB *** 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.0N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.0N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 062100 RRC *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.7N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.6N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 134.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARNING POSITION IS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS AS INDICATED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 035 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 36.4N 132.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 132.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.0N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 43.7N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NONAME) WARN- INGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 062100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 062100UTC 12.5N 134.0E POOR MOVE NW 15KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 072100UTC 15.0N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.0N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.0N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.0N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.0N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.7N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.6N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 134.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARNING POSITION IS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS AS INDICATED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTKO20 RKSL 062100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26 NAME STS 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 062100UTC 36.8N 132.6E MOVEMENT NE 21KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070900UTC 40.0N 135.6E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 24HR POSITION 072100UTC 43.6N 140.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 36HR POSITION 080900UTC 46.6N 146.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 082100UTC 49.1N 153.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPH RPLL 061800 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 1800 06 SEPTEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.5N 135.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 02MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHON 250KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 071800 13.2N 133.1E AT 081800 13.8N 131.1E AND AT 091800 14.3N 129.2E ALLSHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT81 KNHC 062340 *** TCVAT1 SIXTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-070300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ ATTN...WFO...MLB... ** WTNT31 KNHC 062342 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR AS THE DEPRESSION ORGANIZES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. NOAA BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT ...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 062352 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMADIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS DESPLAZANDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO LA ISLA MERRIT...Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA...LAS ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.4 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS... 55 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 165 MILLAS...265 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ACTUALMENTE LA DEPRESION SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO HACIA EL NORTE...CON DESPLAZAMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE ESPERANDOSE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO MIENTRAS LAS DEPRESION SE ORGANIZA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES. LA BOYA DE NOAA 41010 RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SISTENIDOS DE 26 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN PARTES DE FLORIDA Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...27.0 NORTE... 78.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...DESPLAZANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$