** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 061218 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/09/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/09/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0S / 83.5E (EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 400 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/07 AT 00 UTC: 9.1S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/07 AT 12 UTC: 10.4S / 82.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM IS LESS ORGANIZED THANB YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT AND UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, 25/30 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0S / 83.5E (EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 09.1S/82.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 10.4S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 11.7S/81.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 12.5S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/09/09 00 UTC: 13.4S/78.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM IS LESS ORGANIZED THANB YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT AND UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, 25/30 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 061200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 061200 UTC 00HR 34.2N 130.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 40KM/H P+24HR 41.6N 136.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 061200 *** WARNING 061200. WARNING VALID 071200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 970 HPA AT 34.2N 130.8E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 95 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 85 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 37.2N 132.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 40.7N 136.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 47.5N 149.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 48.5N 163.0E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 061200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 061200UTC 34.2N 130.8E GOOD MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 95NM EAST 85NM WEST 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071200UTC 40.7N 136.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 081200UTC 47.5N 149.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 091200UTC 48.5N 163.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 061200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 061200UTC 34.1N 130.9E MOVEMENT NNE 11KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070000UTC 37.5N 133.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 24HR POSITION 071200UTC 40.8N 136.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 080000UTC 44.5N 142.4E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 081200UTC 47.0N 148.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 091200UTC 49.5N 161.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 061500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 034 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 34.6N 131.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 131.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 37.8N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 41.4N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 45.0N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 132.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 061300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 034 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 34.6N 131.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 131.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 37.8N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 41.4N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 45.0N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 132.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 061500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 135.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 135.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.4N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.6N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.0N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.8N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 134.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 061400 RRB *** 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.0N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 061400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 135.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 135.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.4N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.6N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT24 KNHC 061432 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 55.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 55.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.9N 52.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.8N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 45.5N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 061432 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 MARIA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MARIA...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING ANY WARMER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MARIA IS PREDICTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE TRACK HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/6. THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES...THE STEERING CURRENT INCREASES. THEREFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD HEADING...IS CALLED FOR. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.8N 55.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 35.9N 52.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 37.4N 50.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 48.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 36.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 061432 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 ...MARIA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES... 875 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.8 N... 55.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 061432 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.9N 52.8W 26 1 X X 27 38.8N 48.5W 1 11 5 2 19 37.4N 50.8W 9 11 1 1 22 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 061436 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 061440 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA DEBILITANDOSE GRADUALMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.6 OESTE O COMO A 545 MILLAS...875 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH... 160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE DEBILITANDOSE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 220 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...33.8 NORTE... 55.6 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 061444 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/061421ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 84.6E TO 12.1S 83.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E. THE SYS- TEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060037Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER 850 MB VORTICITY IS STRENGTHENING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ARE IMPROVING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO SUSTAINED 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPER- SEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 061445 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM...REDUCING THE SHEAR...AND THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK SO LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND BE NEAR THE EAST COST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 26.5N 78.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 061445 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005 ...CORRECTION TO ADD BIMINI IN THE WARNING SECTION AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA... THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 061445 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.6N 79.3W 71 X X X 71 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 3 3 28.0N 79.7W 47 X X X 47 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 28.5N 80.0W 32 1 X X 33 KEY WEST FL X X 1 3 4 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL 5 2 2 3 12 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 7 3 2 2 14 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 3 4 VENICE FL 4 5 2 3 14 MYNN 251N 775W 2 1 1 3 7 TAMPA FL 6 6 2 3 17 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 CEDAR KEY FL 2 8 4 3 17 MARATHON FL 1 X 1 4 6 ST MARKS FL X 3 5 6 14 MIAMI FL 20 X 1 X 21 APALACHICOLA FL X 2 4 6 12 W PALM BEACH FL 48 X X X 48 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 3 6 10 FT PIERCE FL 39 X X X 39 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 6 7 COCOA BEACH FL 28 1 X 1 30 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL 15 5 2 1 23 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 JACKSONVILLE FL 2 9 4 4 19 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 3 6 5 14 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X 1 4 6 11 GULF 29N 85W X 2 3 6 11 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 2 6 8 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 RRB *** OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.8N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/061421ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 84.6E TO 12.1S 83.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E. THE SYS- TEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060037Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER 850 MB VORTICITY IS STRENGTHENING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ARE IMPROVING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO SUSTAINED 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPER- SEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.1N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.4N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTNT35 KNHC 061449 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING LITTLE... ...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 061449 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 061449 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.0N 67.2W 99 X X X 99 BERMUDA X 2 5 6 13 29.5N 67.5W 53 X X X 53 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 30.5N 67.5W 25 1 1 X 27 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 061453 *** TCVAT1 SIXTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 6 2005 .HURRICANE SIXTEEN FLC009-061-085-111-AMZ550-555-570-575-062100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050906T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 6 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ ATTN...WFO...MLB... ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 050906120000 2005090612 -6.9 84.6 -12.1 83.8 200 -8.1 84.5 061430 0509061421 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061421Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 051430)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 84.6E TO 12.1S 83.8E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 47S, 864E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090518, , BEST, 0, 56S, 859E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090600, , BEST, 0, 65S, 854E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 200, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090606, , BEST, 0, 74S, 849E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 140, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090612, , BEST, 0, 81S, 845E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 130, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTNT45 KNHC 061502 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL TRENDS. NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 RRA *** ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 050906120000 2005090612 -6.9 84.6 -12.1 83.8 200 -8.1 84.5 061430 0509061421 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061421Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 051430)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 84.6E TO 12.1S 83.8E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 47S, 864E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 RRB *** , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090518, , BEST, 0, 56S, 859E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090600, , BEST, 0, 65S, 854E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 200, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090606, , BEST, 0, 74S, 849E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 140, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090612, , BEST, 0, 81S, 845E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 130, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTXS21 PGTW 061430 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 050906120000 2005090612 -6.9 84.6 -12.1 83.8 200 -8.1 84.5 061430 0509061421 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061421Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 051430)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 84.6E TO 12.1S 83.8E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 47S, 864E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090518, , BEST, 0, 56S, 859E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090600, , BEST, 0, 65S, 854E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 200, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090606, , BEST, 0, 74S, 849E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 140, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 95, 2005090612, , BEST, 0, 81S, 845E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 130, 50, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTCA41 TJSJ 061520 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO MERRIT ISLAND...Y EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.6 OESTE O COMO A 10 MILLAS...20 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y COMO A 180 MILLAS...290 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION ESTA ESTACIONARIA PERO SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN SECTORES DE FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...26.5 NORTE...78.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 061529 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...NATE UN POCO MAS FUERTE...MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE... ...LOS INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE NATE... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.7 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS... 440 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE ESTA ESTACIONARIA Y SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y NATE PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...66.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 061532 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 15W MOVING STEADILY AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 15W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 355 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 420 MILES WEST OF FAIS 250 MILES NORTH OF KAYANGEL 690 MILES WEST OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. A SLOW NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...11.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 134.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ PRIOR ** WTJP31 RJTD 061500 *** WARNING 061500. WARNING VALID 071500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 970 HPA AT 35.1N 131.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 95 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 85 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 38.4N 133.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 41.8N 137.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 061500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 061500UTC 35.1N 131.4E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 95NM EAST 85NM WEST 30KT 350NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071500UTC 41.8N 137.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 081200UTC 47.5N 149.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 091200UTC 48.5N 163.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMLB 061616 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 062230- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1215 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TONIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED TO THE LATEST FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS EARLY PHASE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION WAS NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE FELT INITIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ALL MARINE INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS WITHIN PORTS AND MARINAS. WITH A SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. TO MINIMIZE UNDUE ANXIETY...REVIEW PERSONAL AND BUSINESS ACTION PLANS...AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. LATER...IF LOCAL OFFICIALS ASK YOU TO EVACUATE FOR ANY PARTICULAR REASON...PLEASE DO SO IN A PROMPT AND ORDERLY FASHION. THE BEST THING THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PREPARE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL STORM AND REMAIN DILIGENT IN KEEPING INFORMED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING AND WORK NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ALREADY 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS AND WILL BUILD TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING THE 12 TO 14 FOOT RANGE IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WERE ALREADY AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER...AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...OF 5 TO 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW MOVING. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE EARLY THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW... BATTERING WAVES WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR 2 DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 061500 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 061500UTC 35.1N 131.4E MOVEMENT NNE 11KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070300UTC 38.1N 133.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 24HR POSITION 071500UTC 41.4N 137.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 080300UTC 45.0N 143.1E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 081500UTC 48.1N 150.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 091500UTC 49.9N 162.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KMLB 061646 CCA *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 062230- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED STORM INFO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1215 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TONIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED TO THE LATEST FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS EARLY PHASE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION WAS NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE FELT INITIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ALL MARINE INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS WITHIN PORTS AND MARINAS. WITH A SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. TO MINIMIZE UNDUE ANXIETY...REVIEW PERSONAL AND BUSINESS ACTION PLANS...AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS. LATER...IF LOCAL OFFICIALS ASK YOU TO EVACUATE FOR ANY PARTICULAR REASON...PLEASE DO SO IN A PROMPT AND ORDERLY FASHION. THE BEST THING THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PREPARE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL STORM AND REMAIN DILIGENT IN KEEPING INFORMED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING AND WORK NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ALREADY 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS AND WILL BUILD TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING THE 12 TO 14 FOOT RANGE IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WERE ALREADY AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER...AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...OF 5 TO 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW MOVING. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE EARLY THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW... BATTERING WAVES WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR 2 DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ RL/DWS ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 33.1N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 36.7N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.3N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 44.0N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 47.3N 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 130.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 061720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2005 HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 55.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2005 33.7N 55.6W STRONG 00UTC 07.09.2005 34.5N 54.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 35.6N 52.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.1N 51.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 37.9N 49.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 39.8N 46.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.0N 44.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 44.7N 41.1W STRONG BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 12UTC 10.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 66.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2005 28.6N 66.5W MODERATE 00UTC 07.09.2005 28.7N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.6N 67.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 29.4N 66.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 30.5N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.8N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 32.8N 60.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.3N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 36.3N 53.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 38.7N 47.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 42.1N 40.0W STRONG BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 00UTC 12.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 78.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2005 26.4N 78.1W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2005 27.1N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.0N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 29.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 28.8N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 30.2N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 30.6N 77.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 31.6N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 30.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2005 31.4N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061720 ** WTNT31 KNHC 061749 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST VERY NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 061758 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE INCLUYENDO MERRIT ISLAND...PARA GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS Y BIMINI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIESISEIS SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.6 OESTE O MUY CERCA DE LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA Y COMO A 180 MILLAS...290 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION ESTA ESTACIONARIA PERO SE ESPERA UN LENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA ESTA ACERCANDOSE A LA DEPRESION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN SECTORES DE FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...26.5 NORTE...78.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$