** WTIO20 FMEE 060615 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 85.3E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 400 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 18 UTC: 8.7S / 84.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/07 AT 06 UTC: 10.1S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 060620 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 85.3E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 08.7S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 10.1S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 11.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 12.1S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 18 UTC: 12.7S/79.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/09/09 06 UTC: 13.0S/77.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5. CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. LOW LEVEL CLOCWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND STILL VERY BADLY DEFINED. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 060615 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 85.3E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 400 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 18 UTC: 8.7S / 84.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/07 AT 06 UTC: 10.1S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIO21 FMEE 060615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 06/09/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 005/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 06/09/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.5S / 85.3E (SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 15 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 400 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE PRINCIPALEMENT PRESENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE , LOIN DANS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/09/2005 A 18 UTC: 8.7S / 84.8E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 07/09/2005 A 06 UTC: 10.1S / 83.8E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DE BASSE COUCHE EST MAL ETABLIE ET EXPOSEE A L'EST DE LA CONVECTION. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST TOUT EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT DURANT LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 060620 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 85.3E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 08.7S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 10.1S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 11.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 12.1S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 18 UTC: 12.7S/79.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/09/09 06 UTC: 13.0S/77.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5. CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. LOW LEVEL CLOCWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND STILL VERY BADLY DEFINED. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 960 HPA AT 33.0N 130.2E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 36.0N 131.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.1N 134.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 46.2N 145.4E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 48.2N 159.1E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 33.0N 130.2E GOOD MOVE N 16KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 130NM EAST 110NM WEST 30KT 400NM EAST 375NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 39.1N 134.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 080600UTC 46.2N 145.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 090600UTC 48.2N 159.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 32.9N 130.2E 960HPA 35M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 38.4N 133.9E 975HPA 28M/S P+48HR 45.3N 142.5E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 33.0N 130.5E MOVEMENT N 16KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 061800UTC 35.9N 132.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 39.1N 135.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 36HR POSITION 071800UTC 42.6N 139.5E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 080600UTC 45.9N 145.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 090600UTC 48.9N 158.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 12 HOURS FROM 060600 UTC. TY WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 60 HOURS.= ** WTNT24 KNHC 060819 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z TUE SEP 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.9N 52.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 38.2N 49.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 56.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060820 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.6N 53.9W 26 1 1 X 28 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 36.9N 52.1W 11 8 2 X 21 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 38.2N 49.8W 1 11 5 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 060820 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0900Z TUE SEP 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 66.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 66.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.0N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N 66.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 34.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 38.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 060821 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.0N 67.4W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 29.4N 68.0W 47 X X X 47 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 30.3N 68.3W 24 4 1 X 29 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 BERMUDA X 1 5 6 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 060825 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005 ...MARIA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES... 795 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ONLY BE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 56.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 060829 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ...NATE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS SOUTH OF BERMUDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 060838 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL NOR-NORESTE SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.4 OESTE O COMO A 495 MILLAS...795 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE EN EL DIA DE HOY...UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...MARIA DEBE ESTAR BIEN AL ESTE Y NORESTE DE BERMUDA...Y SOLO AMENAZAR LOS INTERESES DE LAS EMBARCACIONES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 105 MPH... 165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MB...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...33.3 NORTE... 56.4 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 33.1N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 36.7N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.3N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 44.0N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 47.3N 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 130.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 060848 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 A PLETHORA OF SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES NATE HAD BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/02...BUT THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE QUASI-STATIONARY. NATE IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN HURRICANE MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND COMPLETELY ERODES THE RIDGE AND LIFTS OUT NATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES WERE INDICATING. THE CAUSE FOR THE FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS NOW INITIALIZING AND MAINTAINING A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP AND STRONGER SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THIS FASTER MOTION NOW PLACES BERMUDA UNDER THE THREAT OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS OF 29C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH SUCH A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD...THESE CONDITIONS WOULD USUALLY FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME SHEAR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING AT A TYPICAL RATE OF 20 KT PER 24 HOURS IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... INCREASING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD CAP THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 28.6N 66.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 28.7N 67.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 67.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.4N 68.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.0N 66.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 38.5N 52.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 33.1N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.2N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.3N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 135.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 RRC *** 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 47.3N 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 130.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 RRB *** REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 36.7N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 40.3N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 44.0N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 RRC *** 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.3N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 135.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 RRB *** 071800Z --- 13.8N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.2N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.2N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 24.3N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 135.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 060850 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE DIRIGE AL SUR DE BERMUDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.6 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS... 445 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH... 4 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SON DEBILES Y ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO EL MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE SER LENTA AL OESTE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH... 75 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y NATE PUDIERA ALCANZAR CATEGORIA DE HURACAN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS... 75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...28.6 NORTE...66.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060900 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER. BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 55.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 53.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 36.9N 52.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 38.2N 49.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.3W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC 00HR 33.5N 130.3E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 39.2N 135.0E 980HPA 28M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 33.5N 130.3E GOOD MOVE N 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 110NM EAST 95NM WEST 30KT 375NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 39.9N 135.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 080600UTC 46.2N 145.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 090600UTC 48.2N 159.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 965 HPA AT 33.5N 130.3E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 36.5N 131.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 39.9N 135.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 060950 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 15W MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 15W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 350 MILES WEST OF FAIS 185 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 660 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM 15W IS MOVING WEST AT 22 MPH. A SLOW NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 135.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 22 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTKO20 RKSL 060900 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 060900UTC 33.5N 130.6E MOVEMENT N 14KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 062100UTC 36.6N 132.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT 24HR POSITION 070900UTC 39.7N 135.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 072100UTC 43.2N 139.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 080900UTC 46.8N 146.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 090900UTC 49.2N 159.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.