** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 060007 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/09/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/09/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.9S / 85.6E (FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 12 UTC: 7.0S / 84.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/07 AT 00 UTC: 8.0S / 83.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CLEARLY DISORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON SUFFERING FROM MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EQUATORWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 060000 *** WARNING 060000. WARNING VALID 070000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 950 HPA AT 31.4N 130.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.7N 130.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 36.7N 132.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 43.5N 141.7E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 48.3N 154.6E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 31.4N 130.0E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 400NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 36.7N 132.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 080000UTC 43.5N 141.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 090000UTC 48.3N 154.6E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTIO30 FMEE 060056 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.9S / 85.6E (FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 12 UTC: 07.0S/84.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 08.0S/83.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 08.9S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 09.9S/80.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 10.9S/80.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/09/09 00 UTC: 11.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5. CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC 00HR 31.3N 130.1E 950HPA 40M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 35.8N 132.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 42.6N 139.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 12 HOURS FROM 060000 UTC. TY WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEA ST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 060000UTC 31.3N 130.3E MOVEMENT N 12KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 76KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 061200UTC 33.8N 131.3E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 24HR POSITION 070000UTC 36.6N 133.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 56KT 36HR POSITION 071200UTC 40.2N 136.9E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 080000UTC 43.9N 142.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 090000UTC 48.6N 152.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 032 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.8N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 40.4N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.8N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 130.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 RRC *** 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 40.4N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.8N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 130.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 032 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.8N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 40.4N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.8N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 130.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 032 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTNT34 KNHC 060239 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005 ...MARIA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...REMAINS FAR FROM LAND BUT A HAZARD TO SHIPPING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.9 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 060239 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z TUE SEP 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 56.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 56.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 55.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N 54.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 40.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060239 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.3N 54.4W 29 X 1 X 30 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 3 3 36.6N 52.7W 14 6 1 1 22 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 37.8N 50.3W 1 11 4 2 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 060247 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST LUNES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA AHORA UN HURACAN MAYOR CON VIENTOS DE 115 MPH... ...PERMANECE LEJOS DE TIERRA PERO UNA AMENAZA PARA LA NAVEGACION... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.5 OESTE O COMO A 485 MILLAS...780 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH... 9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 115 MPH... 185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 960 MB...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...32.9 NORTE... 56.5 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 960 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.1N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.4N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.5N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.6N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.3N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.6N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.6N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 137.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.5N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.6N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.3N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 RRC *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.6N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.6N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 137.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 060253 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z TUE SEP 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 060257 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 0300Z TUE SEP 06 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INITIAL WIND RADII... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 060259 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.3N 67.8W 99 X X X 99 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 28.6N 68.6W 46 X X X 46 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 29.1N 69.7W 21 6 X 1 28 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 BERMUDA X X 1 6 7 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 060259 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 ...14TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS... ...LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060304 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 THE EYE APPEARS A LITTLE LESS RAGGED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB... WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 100 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING MARIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. MARIA HAS 24 HOURS OR LESS TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MARIA SHOULD REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS AT ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/5... AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE SLOWER. SINCE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA... THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE BEHIND IT DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ALSO A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND GFDL AND THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 32.9N 56.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 55.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 35.3N 54.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 36.6N 52.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 37.8N 50.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 40.5N 45.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 060307 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 15 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA LA DECIMO CUARTA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2005 DEL ATLANTICO...LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE BERMUDA Y MOVIENDOSE MUY LENTAMENTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NATE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.8 OESTE O COMO A 320 MILLAS... 515 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. NATE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH... 4 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UNA CONTINUACION DEL MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS... 75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...28.0 NORTE...66.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 060317 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C. THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 30-35 KT... AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE SINCE THEN... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A VERY RECENT BUOY REPORT OF 30 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE... BUT GIVEN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND... IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS SHOWS NATE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NATE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SMALL LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEN EARLIER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED EASTWARD INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST. AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 23Z ALSO SUGGESTED THIS LARGER CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST... AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY HINTS AT A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE... WITH NOGAPS SHOWING CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION... AS DOES GFDL BUT NOT UNTIL SOME MEANDERING IS COMPLETED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALL WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT LEFT BEHIND BY THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING MARIA FARTHER OUT TO SEA. WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK DOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 28.0N 66.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 060300 UTC 00HR 32.0N 130.0E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 060323 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 15W MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 15W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 140 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 200 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL...AND 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM 15W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 32.1N 130.1E GOOD MOVE N 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 400NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 37.5N 133.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 080000UTC 43.5N 141.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 090000UTC 48.3N 154.6E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 060300 *** WARNING 060300. WARNING VALID 070300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 955 HPA AT 32.1N 130.1E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 34.6N 131.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 37.5N 133.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060300 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 060300UTC 32.0N 130.4E MOVEMENT N 13KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 061500UTC 34.5N 131.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 70KT 24HR POSITION 070300UTC 37.5N 134.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 36HR POSITION 071500UTC 40.8N 137.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 080300UTC 44.5N 143.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 090300UTC 49.1N 154.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 060526 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 67.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2005 27.9N 67.4W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2005 28.5N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 28.7N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.9N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 29.8N 68.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 31.1N 67.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 32.1N 66.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 32.8N 64.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.0N 60.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 36.3N 56.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 39.4N 49.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 43.0N 42.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2005 45.9N 34.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 56.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2005 32.8N 56.6W STRONG 12UTC 06.09.2005 33.8N 55.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 34.7N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 36.0N 52.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.2N 51.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 37.8N 49.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 39.7N 46.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.2N 44.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 43.5N 41.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 45.7N 36.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060526 ** WTIN20 DEMS 060640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 06-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)