** WTIO20 FMEE 051812 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/09/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/09/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.0S / 86.0E (FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDS MAINLY UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 06 UTC: 6.0S / 85.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 18 UTC: 7.7S / 83.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CLEARLY DISORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051814 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.0S / 86.0E (FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 06 UTC: 06.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 07.7S/83.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 08.5S/81.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 09.6S/80.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 10.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/09/08 18 UTC: 11.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 30.2N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 33.4N 130.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 40.4N 136.2E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 051800 *** WARNING 051800. WARNING VALID 061800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 945 HPA AT 30.2N 130.2E SOUTH OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 32.0N 130.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 34.4N 131.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 41.4N 138.9E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 47.9N 152.7E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 30.2N 130.2E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 34.4N 131.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 071800UTC 41.4N 138.9E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 081800UTC 47.9N 152.7E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 051800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 051800UTC 30.2N 130.1E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 060600UTC 32.5N 130.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 24HR POSITION 061800UTC 35.1N 132.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 54KT 36HR POSITION 070600UTC 38.1N 135.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 071800UTC 41.5N 138.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT 72HR POSITION 081800UTC 47.8N 150.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT35 KNHC 052027 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 ...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 052027 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 SATELLITE DATA DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE STARTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE BAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION LAST NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND START TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE SCATTERED AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM UNDER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE GFDL MODEL IS SIMILAR...BUT SLOWER...TO THE NOGAPS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFDL...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL STATIONARY MOTION. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 27.8N 67.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 052027 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z MON SEP 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 052028 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.9N 68.2W 99 X X X 99 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 28.0N 69.0W 60 X X X 60 WILMINGTON NC X X X 4 4 28.3N 70.0W 33 1 X X 34 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 5 5 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 052038 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90 KT. AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY 4 DAYS OR SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 56.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 052038 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z MON SEP 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 56.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 56.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 052040 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.9N 55.0W 27 X 1 X 28 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 3 4 36.3N 53.4W 9 9 2 X 20 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 5 6 37.4N 51.3W 1 10 4 2 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/051952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 031 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 35.2N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.5N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 42.0N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 49.2N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 130.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 052046 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL QUINCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT LUNES 15 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA LA DEPRESION TROPICAL QUINCE AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA... LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA SE HA TORNADO MEJOR ORGANIZADO Y AHORA ES LA DEPRESION TROPICAL QUINCE. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL QUINCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.5 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS... 565 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION ESTA ESTACIONARIA...PERO ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...27.8 NORTE...67.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR MOLLEDA/PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051451ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 9.5N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 10.4N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.5N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.8N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.2N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 139.0E. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051451Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 051500 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.5N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 42.0N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 49.2N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 130.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 35.2N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/051952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 031 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN32 PGTW 052100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051451ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 9.5N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 10.4N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.5N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.8N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051451ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 9.5N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 10.4N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.5N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.8N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.2N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 139.0E. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051451Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 051500 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 052100 RRC *** SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 051500 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 052059 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005 ...MARIA WITH 105 MPH WINDS...THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 56.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 052115 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA CON VIENTOS DE 105 MPH...AMENAZA PARA LOS INTERESES EN LA NAVEGACION... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.7 OESTE O COMO A 475 MILLAS...765 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 105 MPH... 165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MB...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...32.6 NORTE... 56.7 OESTE. MOVIEMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 052100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 052100 UTC 00HR 30.7N 130.3E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 270KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 33.8N 131.0E 980HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 052100 *** WARNING 052100. WARNING VALID 062100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 945 HPA AT 30.8N 130.2E SOUTH OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 33.0N 130.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 36.0N 132.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 052100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 052100UTC 30.8N 130.2E GOOD MOVE N 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 062100UTC 36.0N 132.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 071800UTC 41.4N 138.9E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 081800UTC 47.9N 152.7E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 052201 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W NEWLY FORMED EAST OF YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED ON SHORT NOTICE FOR YAP IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W INTENSIFIES AS RAPIDLY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND TRACKS WESTWARD. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI 105 MILES WEST OF FAIS 315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL AND 465 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS EXPECTED TO INTESIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PROBABLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 139.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTKO20 RKSL 052100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 052100UTC 30.8N 130.2E MOVEMENT N 11KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 060900UTC 32.6N 130.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 24HR POSITION 062100UTC 34.6N 131.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 54KT 36HR POSITION 070900UTC 38.0N 134.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 072100UTC 41.7N 138.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT 72HR POSITION 082100UTC 48.2N 151.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.