** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 051210 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/09/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/09/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.5S / 86.4E (FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDS LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 00 UTC: 5.9S / 84.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 12 UTC: 7.2S / 83.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051221 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.5S / 86.4E (FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 00 UTC: 05.9S/84.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/09/06 12 UTC: 07.2S/83.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 08.3S/81.7E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 09.3S/79.9E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 09.5S/78.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 72H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 09.5S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IN SPITE OF ITS LOCATION (NORTH OF 5S), LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ABOUT 27 TO 29AOC FROM 10S TO THE EQUATOR. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 29.4N 130.2E SOUTH OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 31.3N 130.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.7N 131.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 40.0N 136.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 46.4N 148.1E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 29.4N 130.2E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 33.7N 131.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 071200UTC 40.0N 136.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 081200UTC 46.4N 148.1E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 26KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 29.4N 130.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 130.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 38.1N 134.3E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 44.8N 144.4E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 051200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 051200UTC 29.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 060000UTC 31.1N 130.5E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 061200UTC 33.5N 131.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 72KT 36HR POSITION 070000UTC 36.6N 133.7E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 071200UTC 40.2N 137.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 081200UTC 46.5N 147.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 29.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 30.9N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.0N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.5N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 40.1N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 46.6N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 130.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051451Z SEP 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 140.6E TO 11.6N 137.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 140.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.4N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO LESSEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061500Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 051429 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005 ...MARIA'S WINDS NOW NEAR 100 MPH...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N... 56.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 051429 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z MON SEP 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 051429 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE STILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN... WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS. RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS TO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. MARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 31.8N 56.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 051430 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.4N 55.6W 29 X X X 29 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2 35.8N 54.3W 13 5 2 X 20 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 3 4 37.0N 52.5W 1 11 3 2 17 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 2 4 6 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 1 1 2 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 4 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051451Z SEP 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 140.6E TO 11.6N 137.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 140.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.4N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY/150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO LESSEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY/061500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 RRB *** OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.0N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 RRC *** OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.5N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 40.1N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 46.6N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 130.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 051435 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST LUNES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA CON VIENTOS DE CERCA DE 100 MPH...NO AMENAZA A AREAS TERRESTRES... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.7 OESTE O COMO A 475 MILLAS...765 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADA A CERCA DE 100 MPH... 160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...31.8 NORTE... 56.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 051500 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 140.6E TO 11.6N 137.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 140.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.4N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO LESSEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061500Z. // WP, 92, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1440E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1429E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 68N, 1424E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 68N, 1420E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 73N, 1415E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 10, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 92, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 77N, 1410E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 92, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1404E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 051500 RRB *** , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 92, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1404E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 051500 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 140.6E TO 11.6N 137.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 140.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.4N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO LESSEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061500Z. // WP, 92, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1440E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1429E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 68N, 1424E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 68N, 1420E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 73N, 1415E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 10, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 92, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 77N, 1410E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 92, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1404E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTXS21 PGTW 051430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051421Z SEP 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 86.4E TO 8.4S 83.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9S 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z.// ** WTXS21 PGTW 051430 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 86.4E TO 8.4S 83.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9S 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTRUBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 49S, 862E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTXS21 PGTW 051430 RRA *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 86.4E TO 8.4S 83.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9S 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTRUBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, ** WTXS21 PGTW 051430 RRB *** , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 49S, 862E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTXS21 PGTW 051430 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 86.4E TO 8.4S 83.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9S 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTRUBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z. // SH, 95, 2005090318, , BEST, 0, 24S, 845E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090400, , BEST, 0, 23S, 848E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090406, , BEST, 0, 21S, 851E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090412, , BEST, 0, 22S, 857E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090418, , BEST, 0, 24S, 860E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090500, , BEST, 0, 29S, 867E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090506, , BEST, 0, 35S, 870E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 95, 2005090512, , BEST, 0, 49S, 862E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 051500 UTC 00HR 29.6N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 051500 *** WARNING 051500. WARNING VALID 061500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 940 HPA AT 29.6N 130.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 32.0N 130.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 34.4N 131.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 29.6N 130.1E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 34.4N 131.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 071200UTC 40.0N 136.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 081200UTC 46.4N 148.1E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 26KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 051500 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 051500UTC 29.8N 130.2E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 060300UTC 31.9N 130.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 061500UTC 34.3N 131.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 72KT 36HR POSITION 070300UTC 37.7N 134.6E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 071500UTC 42.0N 139.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 081500UTC 47.8N 149.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 051758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2005 HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 56.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2005 31.2N 56.9W MODERATE 00UTC 06.09.2005 32.7N 56.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 33.6N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 34.7N 54.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 36.7N 52.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.2N 52.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.4N 49.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 40.7N 47.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.4N 44.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 27.1N 67.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2005 27.1N 67.3W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2005 27.7N 67.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 27.8N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 27.8N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 27.2N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 27.8N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 28.7N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 29.7N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 32.2N 65.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 33.1N 62.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 34.2N 58.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 35.3N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2005 37.9N 46.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 26.5N 78.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2005 26.5N 78.3W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2005 26.5N 79.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 26.3N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 30.2N 80.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 32.1N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 31.0N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.3N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 29.6N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 31.8N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 31.5N 73.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 30.8N 72.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2005 30.2N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051758