** WTIO20 FMEE 050630 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 1/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9S / 88.7E (TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDS LOCALLY UP TO 540 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/05 AT 18 UTC: 3.7S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 06 UTC: 4.2S / 87.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DAYS EAST FROM 80E WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN DISSIPATE. INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050636 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9S / 88.7E (TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 830 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/05 18 UTC: 03.7S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/09/06 06 UTC: 04.2S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 04.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 05.9S/84.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 06.0S/82.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 06.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST 24 HOURS (CF SSMI 09/05/05 0046Z). VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DAYS EAST FROM 80E WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN DISSIPATE. INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 050630 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 1/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/09/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9S / 88.7E (TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDS LOCALLY UP TO 540 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/09/05 AT 18 UTC: 3.7S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/09/06 AT 06 UTC: 4.2S / 87.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DAYS EAST FROM 80E WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN DISSIPATE. INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIO21 FMEE 050630 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/09/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 1/1 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 05/09/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 2.9S / 88.7E (DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 260 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 540 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE , LOIN DANS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/09/2005 A 18 UTC: 3.7S / 89.0E, VENT MAX = 20 KT. A 24H POUR LE 06/09/2005 A 06 UTC: 4.2S / 87.8E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RESTER PLUSIEURS JOURS A L'EST DE 80E SANS SE CREUSER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PUIS SE DISSIPER. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS UNE EMISSION REGULIERE DE BULLETINS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 050636 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9S / 88.7E (TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 830 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/05 18 UTC: 03.7S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/09/06 06 UTC: 04.2S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 04.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 05.9S/84.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 06.0S/82.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 06.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST 24 HOURS (CF SSMI 09/05/05 0046Z). VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DAYS EAST FROM 80E WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN DISSIPATE. INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 28.8N 130.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.0N 130.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 37.6N 134.5E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 45.0N 144.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 050640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 05-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 26 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 28.8N 130.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 30.4N 130.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 32.4N 130.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 38.3N 134.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 45.6N 145.8E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 28.8N 130.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 32.4N 130.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 070600UTC 38.3N 134.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 080600UTC 45.6N 145.8E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 050600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 28.8N 130.5E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 051800UTC 30.2N 130.5E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 32.5N 131.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 72KT 36HR POSITION 061800UTC 35.2N 132.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 38.6N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 080600UTC 45.5N 145.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.2N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.8N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.4N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.1N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 44.8N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 49.9N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 130.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 050837 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 MARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS HIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT 5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS... AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24 HOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE FORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH ...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 31.3N 57.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050837 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z MON SEP 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 57.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 57.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050838 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU SEP 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.4N 56.2W 32 1 X X 33 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 36.0N 54.8W 4 15 1 1 21 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 3 3 37.3N 52.9W X 5 9 3 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 2 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050842 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005 ...MARIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 465 MILES... 745 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY... WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL KEEP MARIA WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.2N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 RRC *** OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.4N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.1N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 RRD *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 44.8N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 49.9N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 130.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 RRB *** OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.8N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTNT24 KNHC 050846 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z MON SEP 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 57.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 57.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.2N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.8N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.4N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.1N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 44.8N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 49.9N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 130.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 050900 UTC 00HR 29.2N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.4N 130.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050915 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA FORTALECIENDOSE LENTAMENTE BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.0 OESTE O COMO A 465 MILLAS...745 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY... Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NORESTE EL MARTES. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA A MARIA BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y SOLO AMENAZAR A LOS INTERESES DE LAS EMBARCACIONES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH... 150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS... 30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 977 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...31.3 NORTE... 57.0 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 977 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 050900 *** WARNING 050900. WARNING VALID 060900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 29.1N 130.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 30.8N 130.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 33.0N 130.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 29.1N 130.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 33.0N 130.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 070600UTC 38.3N 134.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 080600UTC 45.6N 145.8E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT =