** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 28.0N 130.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 130.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 34.8N 131.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 41.0N 139.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 27.9N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 29.0N 130.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 31.0N 130.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 37.1N 134.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 44.0N 142.9E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 27.9N 130.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 31.0N 130.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 070000UTC 37.1N 134.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 080000UTC 44.0N 142.9E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 050000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 050000UTC 28.0N 130.7E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 051200UTC 29.4N 130.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 060000UTC 31.4N 130.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 36HR POSITION 061200UTC 33.8N 131.6E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 070000UTC 36.8N 133.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 080000UTC 43.0N 141.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 28.0N 130.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 130.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.3N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.0N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.6N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.7N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.7N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 48.9N 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 050237 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z MON SEP 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050238 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 ...MARIA HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... WILL PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT POSES A HAZARD FOR SHIPPING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 760 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.0 N... 56.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050239 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED SEP 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.9N 56.7W 43 X X X 43 36.7N 54.3W 5 12 3 1 21 35.4N 55.8W 24 3 X 1 28 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 28.0N 130.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 130.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.3N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.0N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.6N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 28.0N 130.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 130.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.3N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.0N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 33.6N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.7N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.7N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 48.9N 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 RRD *** OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 43.7N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 48.9N 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 RRC *** OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 36.7N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT44 KNHC 050300 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS EVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE T4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. MARIA STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET. IT ALSO SEEMS THAT VERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY POSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST. EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE STARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 31.0N 56.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050306 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE...PASARA BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA PERO IMPONE UN PELIGRO PARA LAS EMBARCACIONES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.9 OESTE O COMO A 475 MILLAS...760 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE EL LUNES CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH... 140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS... 30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...31.0 NORTE... 56.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 050300 UTC 00HR 28.4N 130.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 28.4N 130.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 31.7N 130.8E 100NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 070000UTC 37.1N 134.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 080000UTC 44.0N 142.9E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 050300 *** WARNING 050300. WARNING VALID 060300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 28.4N 130.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 29.8N 130.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 31.7N 130.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 050556 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2005 HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 56.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2005 30.6N 56.6W MODERATE 12UTC 05.09.2005 32.8N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.09.2005 34.7N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 36.2N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 39.0N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 39.4N 51.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 38.7N 49.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 40.2N 48.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 41.2N 45.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 42.0N 43.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 43.7N 37.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2005 47.1N 31.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED AT POSITION : 27.5N 67.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2005 27.5N 67.4W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2005 27.5N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2005 28.3N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 28.4N 70.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2005 28.5N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 29.8N 71.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THEN MERGES WITH 00UTC 08.09.2005 32.3N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 32.8N 70.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 33.6N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 34.2N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2005 35.0N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2005 37.0N 53.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2005 39.5N 47.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050556