** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC 00HR 27.4N 130.7E 935HPA 55M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.7N 130.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 34.1N 131.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 39.6N 135.8E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041800 *** WARNING 041800. WARNING VALID 051800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 27.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 28.5N 130.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 29.8N 130.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.1N 132.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 41.6N 139.2E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 27.1N 131.0E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 29.8N 130.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 061800UTC 35.1N 132.7E 160NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 071800UTC 41.6N 139.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 041800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 041800UTC 27.2N 130.9E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 050600UTC 28.5N 130.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 051800UTC 30.0N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 36HR POSITION 060600UTC 32.5N 130.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 061800UTC 35.1N 132.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 071800UTC 41.5N 138.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT24 KNHC 042031 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z SUN SEP 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 042031 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS. SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND SPEED FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS FOR A WHILE. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE SHORTER TERM. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 56.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 042032 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED SEP 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.3N 56.5W 45 X X X 45 35.8N 54.9W 11 7 2 1 21 34.7N 55.9W 25 2 X 1 28 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 042032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 ...MARIA STRENGTHENS...THREAT TO SHIPPING... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES... 855 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 27.3N 130.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 130.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.6N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.8N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 39.5N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 45.0N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 51.3N 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 27.3N 130.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 130.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 RRC *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.8N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 RRD *** OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 39.5N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 45.0N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 51.3N 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 RRB *** 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.6N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 27.3N 130.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 130.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.6N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.8N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 39.5N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 45.0N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 51.3N 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 042048 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA SE FORTALECE...REPRESENTA AMENAZA PARA LAS EMBARCACIONES... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.1 OESTE O COMO A 530 MILLAS...855 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO HASTA CERCA DE 85 MPH... 140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS... 30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...30.3 NORTE... 56.1 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 042100 UTC 00HR 27.6N 130.7E 935HPA 55M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 130.4E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 042100 *** WARNING 042100. WARNING VALID 052100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 27.6N 130.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 28.6N 130.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 30.1N 130.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 042100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 042100UTC 27.6N 130.9E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 052100UTC 30.1N 130.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 061800UTC 35.1N 132.7E 160NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 071800UTC 41.6N 139.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT =