** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 26.6N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.1N 131.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 29.5N 130.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.0N 132.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 40.0N 137.1E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 26.6N 131.2E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 29.5N 130.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 061200UTC 34.0N 132.1E 160NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 071200UTC 40.0N 137.1E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 26.5N 131.1E 935HPA 55M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 29.7N 130.9E 935HPA 55M/S P+48HR 33.3N 131.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 39.1N 135.5E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 041200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 041200UTC 26.5N 131.2E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 050000UTC 27.9N 130.5E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 051200UTC 29.4N 130.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 36HR POSITION 060000UTC 31.0N 130.4E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 061200UTC 33.7N 131.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 071200UTC 40.0N 135.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.0N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 30.5N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 32.2N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 38.5N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 45.4N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 51.6N 153.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 131.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 041431 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT. MARIA HAS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11. MARIA IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS. SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.8N 55.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.3N 56.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.3N 56.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 34.1N 56.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.9N 54.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 39.0N 50.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1200Z 42.5N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 041431 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z SUN SEP 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 55.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 55.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.3N 56.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.3N 56.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.1N 56.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 42.5N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 041431 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 970 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.8 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 041432 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED SEP 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.3N 56.4W 38 X X X 38 35.9N 54.7W 2 16 3 1 22 34.1N 56.1W 20 7 X 1 28 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 041436 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.5 OESTE O COMO A 605 MILLAS...970 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE PARA EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...28.8 NORTE... 55.5 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 041500 UTC 00HR 26.9N 131.0E 935HPA 55M/S 30KTS 650KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 26.8N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 28.4N 130.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 29.8N 130.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 26.8N 131.0E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 29.8N 130.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 061200UTC 34.0N 132.1E 160NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 071200UTC 40.0N 137.1E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 041723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2005 HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N 55.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2005 28.1N 55.5W MODERATE 00UTC 05.09.2005 30.2N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 31.8N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2005 32.7N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 32.9N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2005 32.8N 55.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 32.9N 53.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.1N 49.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 37.8N 47.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 37.8N 44.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 41.0N 41.6W MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL 00UTC 10.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 25.4N 79.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2005 25.4N 79.4W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2005 25.6N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 26.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 28.5N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 30.0N 74.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 33.2N 72.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 34.7N 68.0W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL 12UTC 09.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 27.7N 69.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2005 27.7N 69.1W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2005 27.6N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 28.5N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 29.7N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 30.7N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 MERGES WITH ABOVE STORM THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041723