** WTIN20 DEMS 040618 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 04-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 26.1N 131.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 29.3N 130.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 060600UTC 32.8N 131.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 070600UTC 39.2N 136.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 26.1N 131.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.8N 131.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 29.3N 130.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 32.8N 131.6E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.2N 136.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 26.1N 131.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 29.4N 130.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 33.1N 131.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 39.6N 136.2E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 26.1N 131.6E MOVEMENT NNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 041800UTC 27.4N 130.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 28.8N 130.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 36HR POSITION 051800UTC 30.6N 130.3E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 32.6N 130.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 39.2N 135.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 040600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.9N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 35.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 40.0N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 46.3N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 131.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 RRB *** 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.9N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 RRC *** OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 RRD *** --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 35.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 40.0N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 46.3N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 131.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.9N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 35.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 40.0N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 46.3N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 131.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 040834 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65 SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE. AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT. BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 040835 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z SUN SEP 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 55.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 55.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 040835 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED SEP 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.6N 56.6W 40 X X X 40 35.2N 55.9W 3 16 2 2 23 33.4N 56.7W 21 7 X 1 29 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 040840 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005 ...MARIA BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1040 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES... 20 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 040856 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA SE CONVIERTE EN EL QUINTO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.2 OESTE O COMO A 645 MILLAS...1040 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORTE PARA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...MARIA DEBE DE PERMANECER BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y SOLO POSEE AMENAZA PARA LOS INTERESES DE LOS BARCOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 10 MILLAS...20 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...28.0 NORTE... 55.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 040900 UTC 00HR 26.3N 131.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 29.6N 130.8E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 26.3N 131.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 28.0N 131.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 29.4N 130.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 26.3N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 29.4N 130.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 060600UTC 32.8N 131.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 070600UTC 39.2N 136.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT =