** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 24.7N 132.1E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 130.2E 915HPA 60M/S P+48HR 30.6N 129.6E 925HPA 55M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.5E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 24.7N 132.1E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 130.2E 915HPA 60M/S P+48HR 30.6N 129.6E 925HPA 55M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.5E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 940 HPA AT 24.8N 132.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 26.2N 131.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.5N 130.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 30.5N 130.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 36.3N 132.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 24.8N 132.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 27.5N 130.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 060000UTC 30.5N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 070000UTC 36.3N 132.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 040000UTC 24.8N 132.2E MOVEMENT NNW 9KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050000UTC 27.7N 130.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 060000UTC 30.6N 129.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 070000UTC 35.5N 130.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 24.8N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.3N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.4N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.3N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 32.7N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 38.2N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 44.5N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 131.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 040235 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z SUN SEP 04 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 54.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 54.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 040238 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005 ...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES... 1115 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB... 29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 54.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 040238 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE SEP 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.8N 56.5W 41 X X X 41 35.2N 56.7W X 11 8 2 21 33.0N 57.0W 5 21 X 1 27 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 040250 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA TODAVIA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL QUE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN...SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.9 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y MARIA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MB...29.38 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...27.1 NORTE... 54.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 040300 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005 MARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER TODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH AGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO THE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS THAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS JUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. MARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO... AND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS PERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS MUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE GFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.1N 54.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 040300 UTC 00HR 25.3N 132.0E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 040000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 FINAL AT 0000 04 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON NABI 0514 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050000 TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FORM WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 940 HPA AT 25.5N 132.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 26.8N 131.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 27.9N 130.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 25.5N 132.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 27.9N 130.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 060000UTC 30.5N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 070000UTC 36.3N 132.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH RPLL 040000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 (FINAL) AT 0000 04 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (NABI) (0514) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 25.0N 132.2E MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS FROM CETNER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050000 28.4N 132.5E ALL SHIPS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 040531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 54.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2005 26.3N 54.6W MODERATE 12UTC 04.09.2005 28.2N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2005 30.2N 56.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 31.5N 57.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2005 32.7N 57.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 32.7N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 32.1N 55.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 31.8N 54.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 37.3N 47.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2005 38.9N 45.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 38.9N 45.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.09.2005 41.0N 41.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 42.0N 38.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 25.8N 77.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2005 25.8N 77.0W 12UTC 05.09.2005 25.9N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2005 25.8N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 27.2N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 28.3N 77.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 30.0N 77.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 30.5N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 30.8N 76.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.1N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2005 33.8N 69.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2005 34.5N 66.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040531 ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 RRC *** 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.3N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 32.7N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 RRB *** 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.4N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 24.8N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.3N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 RRD *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 38.2N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 44.5N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 131.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 24.8N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.3N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.4N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.3N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 32.7N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 38.2N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 44.5N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 131.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//