** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 24.1N 132.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 130.8E 915HPA 60M/S P+48HR 29.5N 129.8E 925HPA 55M/S P+72HR 32.0N 129.2E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 940 HPA AT 24.0N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 25.7N 131.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.2N 130.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 29.9N 130.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.6N 131.3E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 24.0N 132.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 27.2N 130.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 051800UTC 29.9N 130.1E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 061800UTC 35.6N 131.3E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.5N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.8N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.8N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.9N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 43.5N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 132.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 RRC *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.9N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.8N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.8N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.5N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 RRD *** OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 43.5N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 132.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 032036 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z SAT SEP 03 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 54.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 200SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 54.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 54.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 54.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 032037 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005 ...MARIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES ...1225 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N... 54.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 032037 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE SEP 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 57.0W 32 1 X X 33 34.0N 58.0W X 10 8 2 20 32.0N 57.5W 3 18 2 1 24 BERMUDA X X 3 3 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 032038 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR 100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO REACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3 DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. MARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A LARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 26.1N 54.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W 65 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.5N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.8N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.8N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.9N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 43.5N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 132.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 032046 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA ACERCANDOSE A INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN...NO AMENAZA AREAS TERRESTRES... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.8 OESTE O COMO A 760 MILLAS...1225 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...Y COMO A 740 MILLAS...1190 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH... 26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. MARIA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MB...29.38 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...26.1 NORTE... 54.8 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPH RPLL 031800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 6 AT 1800 03 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (NABI) (0514) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.0N 132,6E MOVING NORTH- WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HECTOPASCALS MAXI- MUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS FROM CETNER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 27.0N 130.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 031800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 6 AT 1800 03 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (NABI) (0514) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER CEOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECON WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 940 HPA AT 24.4N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 26.0N 131.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 27.4N 130.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 24.4N 132.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 27.4N 130.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 051800UTC 29.9N 130.1E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 061800UTC 35.6N 131.3E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT =