** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 21.4N 134.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.1N 131.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 27.0N 129.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 30.1N 128.2E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 21.4N 134.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 24.4N 131.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.2N 129.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 30.0N 129.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 21.4N 134.6E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 24.4N 131.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 050000UTC 27.2N 129.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 060000UTC 30.0N 129.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 030000UTC 21.4N 134.6E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040000UTC 24.3N 131.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 89KT 48HR POSITION 050000UTC 27.2N 129.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 060000UTC 30.0N 128.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 82KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 134.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 134.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.9N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.6N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.2N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.7N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 35.5N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 134.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 030240 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z SAT SEP 03 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 51.4W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 51.4W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.5N 54.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.3N 55.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 36.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 030240 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON SEP 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 54.1W 38 X X X 38 29.3N 55.7W 1 13 5 2 21 27.5N 55.0W 12 12 1 1 26 BERMUDA X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 030245 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM LAND...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND MARIA COULD BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 51.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 030304 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF MARIA HAD DETERIORATED MARKEDLY DURING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z... WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AT 2152Z AND FROM SSMIS AT 2324Z REVEALED VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ONLY REMAINING IN LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DATA T NUMBERS HAD COME DOWN TO 2.5. MORE RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. IT IS A LITTLE CHALLENGING TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION... BUT WITH THE HELP OF THE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES JUST BEFORE 00Z... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10... SIMILAR TO EARLIER TODAY. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ALONG ABOUT 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN... BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST... TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO... WITH A LITTLE MORE SPREAD BEYOND THAT TIME. THE LATTER PORTIONS OF SOME OF THESE MODEL FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE COMPLICATED... WITH A VARIETY OF EVOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WEAKENED MARIA WILL MERGE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA TO FORM A STRENGTHENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5. THE UKMET DOES NOT FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS MARIA STALLING EAST OF BERMUDA BY THAT TIME... AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF MARIA IN THE GFS BY 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE CLEARER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 18Z GFDL... AS IN THE EARLIER 12Z RUN... FORECASTS MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... HOWEVER... FORECAST AT LEAST GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MARIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FORECAST MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE... DELAY THE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE LONGER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 22.4N 51.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 52.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 54.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.3N 55.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 56.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 36.0N 56.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 030306 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA CONTINUA HACIA EL NOROESTE...BIEN ALEJADA DE TIERRA...CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.4 OESTE O COMO A 810 MILLAS... 1305 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...Y COMO A 1070 MILLAS...1720 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y MARIA PODRIA ESTAR MUY CERCA DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...22.4 NORTE... 51.4 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.9N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 134.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 134.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 RRD *** 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.7N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 35.5N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 134.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 RRC *** 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.6N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.2N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 134.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 134.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.9N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.6N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.2N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.7N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 35.5N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 134.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 030000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 0000 03 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON NABI 0514 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOPUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 050000 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AND AT 060000 TWO SEVN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 21.8N 134.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 24.8N 131.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 21.8N 134.3E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 24.8N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 050000UTC 27.2N 129.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 060000UTC 30.0N 129.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH RPLL 030000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 0000 03 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (NABI) (0514) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.4 NORTH 134.6 EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 48 MPS NEAR CENTER 33 MPS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS 13 MPS WITHIN 450 KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 23.1 NORTH 132.3 EAST AT 050000 25.0 NORTH 130.6 EAST AND AT 060000 27.4 NORTH 129.4 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 030528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 50.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2005 22.0N 50.9W MODERATE 12UTC 03.09.2005 23.5N 52.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2005 24.7N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2005 26.2N 55.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2005 27.7N 57.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 28.8N 58.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2005 30.2N 58.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 30.2N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2005 30.9N 59.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2005 32.0N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2005 31.8N 59.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2005 32.1N 57.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2005 31.9N 58.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030528