** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 20.9N 135.3E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 280KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 132.1E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 26.2N 130.0E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 29.6N 128.5E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 930 HPA AT 20.8N 135.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 23.7N 132.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 26.7N 130.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 29.4N 129.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 20.8N 135.3E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 23.7N 132.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 041800UTC 26.7N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 051800UTC 29.4N 129.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.4N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.7N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.5N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 134.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.4N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.7N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.5N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 134.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.4N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.7N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.5N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 134.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 RRC *** 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.5N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 RRB *** 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.4N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.7N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 RRD *** 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 31.1N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 134.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 022033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 ...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850 MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1125 MILES...1810 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 50.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 022033 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 2100Z FRI SEP 02 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 50.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 50.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 022033 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A HURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A LITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE SOON. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW WEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 22.0N 50.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 022034 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON SEP 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 53.3W 39 X X X 39 30.0N 55.4W X 14 6 2 22 28.0N 54.5W 5 22 X 1 28 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 022044 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...MARIA UN POCO MAS FUERTE...NO AMENAZA TIERRA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL MARIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.6 OESTE O COMO A 850 MILLAS... 1370 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...Y COMO A 1125 MILLAS...1810 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. MARIA SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. MARIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.0 NORTE... 50.6 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$