** WTIN20 DEMS 020606 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 02-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 2719 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 19.6N 136.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 260KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 133.4E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 24.8N 130.8E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 27.6N 129.7E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 925 HPA AT 19.6N 136.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 21.7N 133.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.7N 131.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 27.9N 129.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 19.6N 136.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 21.7N 133.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 040600UTC 24.7N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 050600UTC 27.9N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 0513 TALIM (0513) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON TS 0513 TALIM (0513) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 6 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT24 KNHC 020831 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0900Z FRI SEP 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 48.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 48.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.2N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.8N 53.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 020831 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RECTANGULAR CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...JUST A TRIFLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL FOLLOW IT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 120 HR...AND A LITTLE FASTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE 120 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84 HR...AND THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH 120 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES... CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM FOR 24 HR...ANY PERSISTENT BURST CONVECTION COULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A STORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 20.6N 48.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.6N 49.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 23.2N 50.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.8N 53.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 55.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 56.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 020831 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES...1595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N... 48.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020832 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON SEP 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.2N 50.9W 39 X X X 39 26.8N 53.7W X 14 5 2 21 25.0N 52.5W 9 15 1 1 26 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.8N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.9N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.6N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 30.6N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 136.3E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.8N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 RRD *** 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.6N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 30.6N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 136.3E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 RRC *** 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.9N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.8N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.2N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.5N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.9N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.6N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 30.6N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 136.3E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 925 HPA AT 19.9N 136.4E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 22.5N 132.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 19.9N 136.4E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 22.5N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 040600UTC 24.7N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 050600UTC 27.9N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTCA44 TJSJ 021158 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.1 OESTE O COMO A 990 MILLAS... 1595 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...20.6 NORTE... 48.1 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$